Premier League Preview: Fulham

Blog written by ad_wilkin
Published: 3rd January 2025 11:45

It’s been a tough winter period for Fulham but they have come out of it with a very good haul of seven points out of games, among them excellent draws against Arsenal and Liverpool.

In addition, they faced Southampton, where a rotated team faced a Saints side looking to prove themselves following Russell Martin’s sacking, and struggled to a 0-0 draw, grabbed an excellent last-gasp 2-1 win at Chelsea and an end-to-end game with Bournemouth finished 2-2. They come into this one sat eighth in the table and pushing for European football

<h1>Previous Match (Ipswich 1-1 Fulham) </h1>

Town opened the scoring with Liam Delap driving through the middle of the pitch and scoring Town’s longest goal of the season so far (26 yards) with an xG of 0.05 on the 15-minute mark.

He’d received the ball deep in the Fulham half and gone on a mazy run into the space that had opened up in the centre before firing back across Bernd Leno from outside the box. The Fulham keeper managed to get a hand on it but the strike was too powerful to stop it from going into the net.

The goal was created by some fine work from Leif Davis intercepting a loose pass in the defensive third before dribbling past three Fulham players and laying it off to Delap.

The Fulham equaliser came from their left-hand side with Emile Smith Rowe finding Alex Iwobi out wide. The former Arsenal and Everton man held the ball up to allow Antonee Robinson to sprint in behind Axel Tuanzebe, one of the few times this season he’s been beaten for pace, and deliver back across goal with a firm low cross.

Rodrigo Muniz drew the centre-back in and stopped him from making a clearance allowing it to fly all the way through to Adama Traore, who had dropped off of Leif Davis, and was able to sidefoot calmly home.

Both teams then continued to threaten evenly, Delap continuing to be a nuisance and almost putting Chiedozie Ogebene through one-on-one with the keeper and Traore getting in behind down Town’s left and it was the Blues who were the ones who were really pushing for the winner at the end with three shots in the last ten minutes.

Despite Town creating chances, their 11 shots only produced 0.4 xG with Fulham’s low block meaning that there were always plenty of bodies back to defend. Only City and Brighton limited the Super Blues to less.

It was very much a game where both teams allowed each other to have the ball. For Ipswich, it was the game with the second-shortest passing out from the back with only 16.7% of goalkeeper passes launched. Town had the second-highest pass completion of all games so far at 82.9% and the highest for short passes (93.7%). Despite that, only three passes were into the penalty area.

Fulham also completed their highest percentage of short passes against us at 93.8% but like Town only had five passes into our penalty area.

Defensively it was the most successful high press we’ve put on a team with seven tackles in the final third. No individual errors were made and Town were successful with 71.4% of take ons. Only the Tottenham game had a higher success rate. This is perhaps not surprising with Fulham lacking midfield cover with just one defensive midfielder, something Delap exploited for his goal.

Fulham were also successful with take ons with 70% complete, the highest out of all of their games with lots of their attacks coming from both flanks.

They were also strong in the air. Town lost of lot of aerial duels with just 47.8% won.

Town limited Fulham to nine shots in this one and only Aston Villa, Brighton and Arsenal have done better since.

Fulham only won 16.7% of their tackles, the lowest out of any game so far. The match was a high-fouling game with 15 fouls on both sides, Town in particular giving away lots of dead ball situations, 57 in total, the most Fulham have had in a game so far.

<h1>Fulham’s Last Game - Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth </h1>

Fulham took the lead from an outswinging corner as Raul Jimenez was left in a ton of space to plant Harry Wilson’s expert delivery into the back of the net 40 minutes into the first half.

Bournemouth drew level early into the second half as Evanilson got in behind the Fulham defence and expertly poked the ball past Bernd Leno into the top of the net following a lofted through ball from James Hill. There were questions asked about Joachim Anderson’s defending as he failed to cut out the ball in but it was an excellent finish from Evanlison.

Fulham took the lead once again on 72 minutes with the Welsh wizard Harry Wilson getting yet another goal, this one from a rare start rather than off the bench, finding space in the box and scoring another header from a delightful Robinson delivery.

The Cottagers weren’t comfortable, however, and relied on goalkeeper Bernd Leno to keep them in the game at times. The experienced German keeper made six saves, preventing 0.44 goals.

Eventually, the Bournemouth pressure paid off with a lose pass from Issa Diop seized upon by Antoine Semenyo, who after a one-two with Enes Unal, drove at the Fulham defence, managing to get the ball across the box via a couple of ricochets into the path of Dango Outarra, who dinked the ball delightfully over an onrushing Leno.

<h1>Three to watch </h1>

<b>Antonee Robinson </b>

The US international has the most assists by a defender in the Premier League in 2024 with seven and is a big factor in Fulham’s form, combining both defensive and attacking attributes to perfection.

In addition to the assists, he’s also won 32 tackles (the fourth-highest in the league for defenders).

His assisting prowess has not always been there, though. I got some insight for this preview from @CottageTactico and asked him how he compares to Town’s flying left-back Leif Davis and his take was that they’re very different, as well as contributing thoughts on the other players I've picked out.

"They’re sort of opposites,” he said. "Jedi (Robinson) always had the engine, physicality and some defensive duel skills but was woeful with final ball and has developed it. It feels like Davis is the other way round.”

<b>Harry Wilson </b>

Super sub Wilson has been one of Fulham’s most impactful players this season without actually starting too many games.

"Wilson’s form of late is really strong and he just has the knack of getting in the right places,” @CottageTactico said of the one-time Liverpool youngster.

He currently only has four starts in the Premier League, fewer than the goals he has to his name. And it’s those five goals (from an xG of 2.82) that are the reason I've picked him out.

The impact started back in November when Fulham were 1-0 down to Brentford and he came on in the 82nd minute to score not once but twice, both in stoppage time, to give the Cottagers a 2-1 win.

He followed that up with another goal off the bench in the 2-0 victory against Crystal Palace and could have had two were it not for VAR.

A relative goal drought followed as he failed to score in his next six, but was back off the bench to turn the tide against Chelsea, scoring in the 82nd minute to draw Fulham level before Rodrigo Muniz scored a last-minute winner to secure an historic victory.

His fifth of the season came against Bournemouth as covered above.

<b>Sasha Lukic </b>

Defensive midfielders don’t often get singled out but Sasa Lukic has been one of Fulham’s top performers this season. "Lukic is the one nobody outside the club really talks about but is key,” adds @CottageTactico.

He was the man that provided the match-winning assist against Chelsea but it’s his defensive abilities in terms of tackles and interceptions where he comes into his own. He wins 1.5 tackles per game on average in the midfield third and also has a high aerial duel percentage win rate at 58.1%.

<h1>The Teams </h1>

The big talking point for both sides coming into this one is whether five at the back is here to stay. For Ipswich, the switch came having been outplayed by Newcastle. Town looked far more solid defensively in the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal. The slight tweak of having Wes Burns at wing-back meant that it could be a bit more attacking in the 2-0 victory against Chelsea.

With Tuanzebe still out injured, I think the five will stay but will be tweaked in certain games to provide more attacking intent. For this one I think it’s likely to be an unchanged team. I’d personally bring Kalvin Phillips in for Sam Morsy to provide more mobility in that midfield but I think Kieran McKenna will stick with the skipper for the time being.

For Fulham, the switch was also brought on by injuries with Sander Berge and Smith Rowe missing a chunk of games. Both are now back in contention but Marco Silva could stick with the five that beat Chelsea and drew with Bournemouth.

It also allows Joachim Anderson to come into the defence and provide more control in there with neither Issa Diop or Kalvin Bassey overly comfortable on the ball, something that Town targeted in the reverse fixture.

"Bassey’s distribution has improved a bit. He’s the sort of player who can execute patterns but struggles when he doesn’t know them/they’re taken away,” according to @CottageTactico.

The other changes from the previous fixture are likely to be Raul Jiminez starting up front. He has shared playing time with Rodrigo Muniz but has six goals to the Brazilian’s three and Wilson or Smith Rowe in for Traore.

"We’re a bit less one-v-one off the dribble now Adama is back to being a bit meh and on the bench. I wonder if we’ll see Iwobi back right and ESR as a left 10 if we stick with five soon enough,” says @CottageTactico.

The only other potential change could be in midfield with Andreas Pereira not particularly impressing and Tom Cairney providing a super cameo off the bench against Bournemouth.

"Cairney had an unreal cameo last 25 minutes yesterday, so there’ll be some clamour for him to start even though he rarely does these days”, adds @CottageTactico

There’s also the return to fitness of Sander Berge to throw into the mix as well.

<h1>Prediction </h1>

When writing this the similarities between the two sides has come to the fore.

"Against the big boys we definitely sit in our mid-block more away from home and block central progression,” reflects @CottageTactico.

"We jump from it a touch more at home. We barely look for central progression. It’s through the wings or we’re going a bit longer.

"When Bassey starts, trying line-breaking passes (same with Diop) we struggle. Simple passes or carries is the way forward. We play pretty elaborate patterns out from the back but it’s all through the full backs and wingers when we finally go forward.”

I’m not expecting a high-scoring game, as was the case in the reverse fixture, both sides could cancel each other out a lot. I think it could be one where a moment of class wins the game and hopefully that comes from a blue shirt. One-nil Town

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