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[Blog] If Jewell is Staying, How Do We Stay Up?
Written by Superfrans on Sunday, 22nd Jan 2012 11:15

Here is a prediction for you. Paul Jewell is not going to be sacked. 

Marcus Evans has vowed to stand by him, and his credibility would be shot if he bailed on him now - a week after such fulsome support in the matchday programme. Jewell will be our manager until the end of the season, at least. 

So calling for the manager's sacking is, however logical it may seem, pointless. It's like complaining that you have homework to do. You do, so get on with it. 

The only consideration now is can we retain our Championship status? It is worth reminding ourselves that, despite the huge concern we all currently feel and the appalling run we are currently on, we are still four points clear of the relegation places. Hard to imagine, I know, but there ARE teams worse off than us. 

So what do we need to secure safety? Over the past seven years of the Championship (since it was renamed from its previous incarnation, Division One), the highest-placed relegated teams have secured a points tally of (2005 to date) 50 (-21 goal difference), 42, 42, 52, 46, 47, 42. In turn, safety has been secured in fourth bottom by a points tally of 50 (-20), 50, 49, 53, 51, 49, 48. 

In other words, over the past seven seasons, escaping relegation has required an average of 47 points (46.7, to be precise) assuming that all that is required is a point more than third bottom. In reality, though two teams have been relegated with more than 50 points (50 in 2005 and 52 in 2008). So, another 25 points to get to a 53 points total - or 20 to reach 48 and take a huge risk that that will do us this season.

Looking at the fixtures ahead of us, the most winnable games are obvious. At home, we should be targeting three points from Bristol City and Millwall, and a couple of wins from Peterborough and Barnsley.

Away from home, our easiest matches (not that there is such a thing, of course) are Coventry and Donny Rovers. In addition, by the final month, it is possible that teams such as Crystal Palace will have nothing to play for. That is eight matches, three points for a win - 24 points. Simple isn't it? Well, not quite, when you are on the run we are currently on. 

For me, seven or eight wins are perfectly achievable. Any chance of doing this depends on us putting in place a defence which can allow us to score one goal and win. It is a long time since we looked capable of doing that on any kind of regular basis. 

Whether we will do it, nobody knows. But can we do it? Well, of course we can. But we need a new defence first. 

And, assuming we DO escape relegation, that's when the big work starts. Evans will need decide whether Jewell is our man. And then whoever is in charge has to persuade players that we are a place worth coming to. If we have finished fourth bottom, or a couple of points off relegation (which seems to be the best we can hope), that will not be an easy task.




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pazelle added 11:31 - Jan 22
Jewell Out!
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Manchesterblue added 11:34 - Jan 22
Evans will be selling the club after the olympics, then we do really have a problem
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rosseden added 11:52 - Jan 22
whats the fascination with ME selling the club post-olympics? There is no reasonable reason whyowning the club has any influence on anything olympics related.....

The only potential is that he makes so much profit from a UK based olympics he wants to offset it against the clubs losses, but thats a bit of a long shot......
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Facefacts added 11:58 - Jan 22
I just cannot see us staying up. There has never been a more expensively assembled yet clueless team at this level. All the management is at fault (Evans - giving false hope, face-less, a no-way-back situation if he exits, administration and doom are around the corner, U-turns galore on ticket pricing; Clegg - horrendously underestimated the balancing act of player contractual negotiations in football until it was too late and his reputation established, so we end up with no-one or numpties; Jewell - unlucky to be recruited after too long out of the game, most signings have failed, he is just sinking fast). I think the problems date back 5 years to the Amsterdam trip after Jim Magilton 'lost' the dressing room and the team started to break up.
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Tractorboy24 added 12:23 - Jan 22
To be fair, performances in the last 3 games have shown high promise, considering those games were against sides in the top half of the league, and were it not for a poor ref decision, the curse of Kevin Phillips and sonko, we could have easily had 9 points instead of 1.

The key is bringing in at least 2 defenders, and we should be safe.
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ChrisFelix added 12:48 - Jan 22
on paper i would have expected home wins against Doncaster, Reading & Forest.
All lost.
The worrying factor is that Forest who are worse off than Town have managed 2 of their few wins against us
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christiand added 15:06 - Jan 22
8 wins is achievable? We have struggled to win 8 matches all season. Suddenly in the mist of a horrendous run we are going to win 8 of our remaining games and turn our form on its head? Dream on, we are going down. A side that has conceded the copious amount of goals we have deserves nothing less!
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singtown added 15:17 - Jan 22
Thanks but the statistics don't count anymore as WE in fact the weakest team now looking at last 10 games and sliding down fast the league table.

Question is whether Notts Forest, Doncaster & Coventry can pull off a few wins and leave us rooted at the bottom? The buffer is only 4 points while there are still many games left. Catching up is not difficult when we continue to leak goals like this.

Survival time....
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RegencyBlue added 15:29 - Jan 22
Any side which concedes as many goals as we do whilst also struggling to score is going down!

No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that.
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BluedanW added 16:46 - Jan 22
Forest done the double over us despite their lack of points. Coventry 3 wins out of their last 6 games, Doncaster 2 wins from last 6. We have 1 point from last 6. 5 points from last 15 games! 8 wins???? dream on! we're doomed! we are not only going down, we will be bottom too!
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GTRKing added 18:18 - Jan 22
Looks like if we don't score/win a few game we will certainly go down & then we can get new manager & young player & go straight back up & buy Jordan Rhodes back & come top. But we relying on Doncaster Coventry & Forest or Millwall to keep loosing. But will Jimmy bullard & Sonko & Chopra & Bowyer & Ellington & Ledbitter wanna play for us in League 1 I think not but our younger players like Dury Carson Smith Murray Ainsley will wanna play for us.
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Glossopippies added 18:35 - Jan 22
I have to say, as a long-suffering Northern Town supporter of many years, that, until the last 19 minutes, that was one of the best Town performances for a long time. By hook or by crook, Paul Jewell has produced a higly mobile and combative midfield. Yes, there are still things needing attention, but I hope he doesn't panic .I have been very impressed with ALB and I think his mistreatment by Paul Jewell has been demoralizing.
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alfromcol added 19:37 - Jan 22
Glossopippies

Agree entirely with the ALB situation. Had PJ kept him in goal and used McReading on the bench we would likely have more points than we do now.

I suspect that ALB will be out the door ate the first opportunity he gets. Very poorly treated. How can he keep his own confidence high when he gets pi**ed about like he has?
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sonian_blue added 09:20 - Jan 23
You really think we can win 7 or 8 games to reach safety?
Youre avin a larf.
Yes there is a 7 point buffer but that was a 7 or 8 point buffer at christmas. A win for each of the teams below us and we are in the mire, particularly as the hammers are up next, then we go to one of those three in Coventry who have found some form.
I like a bet and the bleeding obvious, painfull as it is, is to back us to go down and at least make some money from our plight.
Jewell Out and Quickly.
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jas0999 added 20:10 - Jan 24
ME will change his mind when season ticket sales reach an all time low. It's like this - I can not justify spending so much money on something (Jewell) I truely disagree with. If PJ is at the club - no season ticket. If he is sacked I renew. ME WAKE UP. PJ OUT
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Lightningboy added 22:48 - Jan 24
I think the one positive is that every team has a "bad run" at some point in the season..hopefully ours will be behind us sooner rather than later and we can start picking up the odd win in 3..I can't see Coventry getting out of it,hopefully Billy Sharp will leave Donny - that should be them knackered..but i've a horrible feeling that Steve Cotterill and Forest are going to really be our bogey team this season.
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buryblue77 added 15:27 - Jan 26
I still think we'll stay up and I feel we can move away from the relegation zone, we are truly awful in defence, but generally towards the end of games so IF and it's a BIG IF we can get those problems ironed out, either by trainig sessions, but hopefully by means of aquiring new players of a higher standard and or experience than what we have. Yes we are also goal shy at times and if only Chopra could get himself fully fit, both mentally and phsically we'd have a good strike pairing with him and Scotland, (it would be great if the Michael Owen rumours were true, whilst I feel he's past his best but still could do a job at this level even if it were as a sub)
Jewell needs money to spend and Clegg needs to complete the deal, all those players lost for what looks like a stubborn unwillingness to negotiate past a set level (Derry who said he was ready to sign but the deal couldn't be done and Norris who wanted a three year contract and we were only prepared to give two to name a couple and the rumour is that St Ledger couldn't agree terms either)
Two CB's and a RB should stop the rot and I think we'll start going in the right direction.
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