I’ve been a Tractor Boy (although it wasn’t called that then) since some time in 1960 and have seen our beloved club win promotion or major trophies on seven occasions:

1960/61: Promotion to Div I as champions

1961/62: League Championship

1967/68: Promotion to Div I as champions

1977/78: FA Cup winners

1980/81: UEFA Cup winners

1991/92: Promotion to the Premier League as champions

1999/00: Promotion to the Premiership as play-off winners

Over the years, we have been the envy of most clubs with the tolerance (ie non-sacking policy) applied by the board to the position of manager. Only in recent years has the club departed from this and installed a revolving door at the entrance to the manager’s office, perhaps with some justification, but this blog isn’t about that.

It appears that another revolving door has also been installed, this time to the players’ entrance, and it seems to be spinning ever faster.

Football is supposed to be a team game, ie the better the players are at playing together, the better should be the results and rewards. Alf Ramsey proved that with the championship-winning team, the sum of which was widely acknowledged to have been significantly greater than its parts, perhaps the best example of this in all of football history, given the magnitude of their achievement.

This togetherness is not inherited, genetically or otherwise and cannot be achieved in any other way but through time. Remember Alan Hansen’s derisive comment about the Manure team of a few years ago that “You can’t win anything with kids”? He overlooked the fact that the likes of Beckham, Scholes, Butt, the Nevilles etc had been playing together for years as they came up through the youth system. In other words, they had years of experience playing together as a team.

My concern for the coming season it that, yet again, for the third, or is it the fourth, or perhaps the fifth close season running, we have seen a wholesale clearout of the playing staff and an influx of new players who have never played together.

There is, perhaps, a minor exception, with Paul Anderson, Dean Gerken and Cole Skuse, all coming from Brizzle City, but they will not, I suggest, form the core of the first team.

Also, it seems to me that these clear outs are successively more severe, retaining less and less of the cumulative teamwork learned in the previous season. Two more concerns arising from the revolving players’ door are (1) that fewer than half the present squad of any potential first team selection have played more than one season at the club – the sixth longest serving player is Luke Chambers and (2) the fourth longest server, Daryl Murphy, has achieved this by three separate loan spells.

The England rugby coach, Stuart Lancaster, has said that he wants to build a squad to win the 2015 World Cup and is aiming to keep a core of players together until then, having noted that the successful countries have squads with aggregate caps of more than 600. This aggregate represents not only experience but also demonstrates several years of building the necessary teamwork.

Surely success in any team sport relies on this principle, although it is possible to tweak the team at critical times with new blood – examples are the addition to our promotion teams of 1968 and 2000 of strikers John O’Rourke and Marcus Stewart respectively.

Town’s aggregate player appearance statistics, at the start of each season, for the first team for each of the years above, as well the forthcoming season, are set out below. The totals include all competitions and substitute appearances, but not earlier appearances for players rejoining (for example John Wark’s figure in 1991/1992 is zero, although he had played hundreds of games in his previous two spells).

Perhaps the low figure for 1999/00 explains why we were promoted via the play-offs instead of automatically and why our tenure in the top flight was so short-lived, after George Burley’s rebuilding for 2002/2003.

1960/61: 1,500

1961/62: 1,417

1967/68: 1,004

1977/78: 2,261

1980/81: 1,623

1991/92: 1,437

1999/00: 857

2013/14: 588

The first team which I have assumed for the coming season is the one which started the Colchester friendly, but with Edwards and Murphy for Wordsworth and Nouble, therefore including two players only (Veseli and Skuse) who are complete newcomers:

Loach

Veseli

Chambers

Smith

Cresswell

Edwards

Skuse

Hyam

Tabb

Murphy

McGoldrick

Most changes to this team will reduce the aggregate – for example one first team selection suggested by the Star would have Wordsworth instead of Edwards, when the aggregate falls from 588 to 424 and (God forbid) the sale of Cresswell would knock almost 100 off the total.

The inescapable conclusion from these figures is that the squad has grossly inadequate teamwork experience, which, in my view, is likely to mean no promotion this year.

Two, or possibly three years of team building should be the target for a club in our position (ie not able to compete for experienced quality players with those having parachute payments) before promotion could be anticipated.

The aggregate team experience will need to be accumulated to a total of at least 1,000 appearances. This might be achieved for the start of next season if all those listed above take part in most games and are still with the club. This remains a possibility, even if Carlos Edwards at the age of 35 next year drops out of the picture.

A further cause for optimism in a year’s time is the emphasis being put by Mick McCarthy on developing a core of young players – see my Manure comment above!

So, I do not believe that we are ready to challenge for promotion this season, but I will be utterly, utterly delighted if promotion, by any means, becomes a possibility, let alone a reality.

For those readers who doubt my adherence to the cause, you may rest assured that my blue and white glass is never even half full, it’s always overflowing, so you will understand why I’ll be the first to be seen whooping and hollering around Kent in blue & white if I’m wrong.

With grateful acknowledgment to the free pages of Pride of Anglia as the source of my statistics.

NoCanariesAllowed added 13:34 - Jul 31 I think it's easy to feel the optimism at this time of year, especially on the back of the year we've just had following so many seasons of rubbish. But I wouldn't be expecting promotion this year for an instant. First we have to focus on just being competitive in this division again, which would mean a top half finish would still be progress, even if it's not ultimately what we want. If fate smiles upon us and we do actually get promoted this year, I'd deem it a delightful surprise.

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Sibelius8 added 13:40 - Jul 31 Congratulations upon an excellent article. The 1950s Division 3 (South) Championship-winning teams would also back up your theory.
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BotesdaleBlue added 14:20 - Jul 31 Some good points well made. I too have noticed the trend on players and how we have only a small handful, whose experience with the club stretch back more than a couple of years. My thoughts on the subject are that the current close season player turnover, unlike previous seasons is a major positive - especially - and this is the key point - as it has been overseen by a top manager, top coach and supported by a new and proven scouting network. The player merry-go-rounds in recent seasons have been overseen by managers and management/scouting teams which are way out of thier depths and which have almost led us to relegation. We all want a settled team and my hope is now, at last, we can begin to build towards that objective.

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Karlosius added 14:32 - Jul 31 I think it's important to note at some point that the bulk of MM's signings this summer were previous loan signings, so it's not as though they're entering the club with no knowledge of the club, squad or town.
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dirtyboy added 14:46 - Jul 31 I always believe the backbone of a team is the most important aspect, but appreciate the team works. I play 6-a-side with my mates, and even if one of them drops out and a new lad come in, it makes a massive impact on knowing where they're likely to be/do/want, even if they're a 10x better player...and this is at 'numpty' level football. Loach (sort of) Chambers/Smith Hyam and Murphy form that 'spine' of the team and certainly have been integral to the resurgence in form under MM. The continuity is furthermore shown with Cresswell and McGoldrick being under that same improvement in fortunes. Martin, Steadman, N'Daw and Chopra are the only notable absentees from a squad now assembled with competition for places and cover in every area. I do like the fact that we're not too unchanged, albeit still a relatively 'green' side when you look at the statistics above, yet have shown a different kind of resilience under MM and togetherness built around having the right environment. Let's not read too much into statistics and concentrate on good old fashioned hope!

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theobald1985 added 14:51 - Jul 31 totally agree with this article a team that plays together improves over time. i like mick but think ten new additions was perhaps too many when gerken is no better than lee barrett tunicliffe is no better than drury and anderson is no better than lee martin. hopefully mick will stay for a long time and this is his last major rebuilding. when villa pipped us to the league in the early 80s they did so using just 14 outfield players so i am not convinced that these huge squads these days are actually needed and think thet can hinder the progress of young players

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grf1g08 added 15:01 - Jul 31 An interesting view. I would be interested to see how this years aggregate appearances compares with previous seasons, and with other teams in the championship. While I agree that team stability is very important to the success of the team, the signings made this summer were completely necessary, and several of the loans from last year were kept on which should mean that there will be greater continuity than if completely new signings were made instead of these. I would also suggest that managerial stability tends to bring greater player stability as a new manager will want to sign his own players. Hopefully a successful period under Mick McCarthy will bring this.

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MedwayTractor added 15:16 - Jul 31 In reply to Sibelius8, the appearance totals prior to the promotion seasons of 1953/1954 and 1956/1957 are 937 and 1,037 respectively - perhaps the lower first figure explains why relegation followed immediately. Don't forget, also, that totals for any season before 1960 would be lower because there was no League Cup, just the league and FA Cup.
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BillBlue added 15:37 - Jul 31 A really interesting hypothesis and well thought out and presented too. There can be no doubt about the strength of your point when you show the three highest figures corresponding with the three most successful seasons in he clubs history. The point you make is something of which I have always been aware but on reading your figures I find the reality shocking. It is amazing that we go into this season with such a low total but there is a positive in that, the second main constituent of a successful team, getting on well and playing together as a team, I feel is such as we have not experienced for quite a long while and IMO it is from this the current feeling of optimism is emanating. I only hope that this year we get away from being the laughing stock of the second tier and that we have an encouraging year which will give us the imputus to get back where we all hope to be. Many thanks for a very good article.

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budgieplucker added 21:06 - Jul 31 Well done and excellent blog "Medway Tractor" and I nearly go back as far you. I believe your hypothesis has a lot of substance, however, other factors do effect the outcomes as well, otherwise it's like saying the more you brush your teeth the whiter they become - this may be true but it does also depend on what tooth paste you use, what you eat, do you use mouthwash & floss etc, so there are qualitative elements that effect the result as well. Mick has to repair some of the damage done to the club in recent years so its akin to needing a few fillings and finding a good dentist before we can work towards a gleaming smile and the premiership. With a bit of good fortune I think we can just make top six but anything above tenth place will be progress. This is still a very tough league but FFP is starting to redress the balance a little and will even more so next year, but those clubs with parachute payments should still have a distinct advantage but I am sure Wolves fans will disagree with that.

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bluelodgeblue added 22:28 - Jul 31 A well thought out article but as with all viewpoints based on stats there are always other angles? i.e. the way players gel (ncfc 2/3 years ago?), the manager (mm against rk/pj?),the motivation?, etc,etc. Basically it is not an exact science. I believe that building a team of potential will be over a 2/3 season period. yes, it nay come first season, but a gradual strengthening of the squad with MM at the helm will reap its rewards over a few seasons? Lets not get carried away patience is the word.

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BuckieBlue added 22:50 - Jul 31 A lot of work, making for a thought provoking read. I've posted before that successful Championship sides have usually been together a while before their success, but as has been said above, our signings are far from being a hugely new squad with some loanees being signed, so our continuity is quite good IMO. Also these days most (all?) teams number of past appearances will be far short of those earlier large figures, so we're all in the same boat! and I guess our continuity is better than most which augurs well for new season.

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dannym09 added 23:36 - Jul 31 excellent blog , thouroughly enjoyed reading it. i can back up this theory as i remember a certain west brom team keeping their team together over a few years and getting promoted 3 times from the championship, now look at what their acheivements have brought them. Mick seems to know what he is doing and every tractor boy around the country seems a little more optimistic this season. Bring it on

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Guthrum added 00:21 - Aug 1 Good article, but it would be interesting to compare those stats with the same for some of our long-term rivals. I suspect you might see the same decline in aggregate experience across the board. Thus what you have highlighted may be more one of the malaises of modern football (modern society, even - lack of patience) than a particular recent affliction of ITFC. Few, if any, teams in this division have teamwork experience at the levels you're talking about from even 20 years ago, let alone 40 or 50. Tho, having said that, the last few years have been particularly bad. I was pleased to see that this summer was largely a consolidation of the team which finished last season, plus a judicious leavening of a few new players.

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carsey added 01:08 - Aug 1 One of the best blogs for a long time. Well researched and presented. I would echo theobald1985 and his comment regarding Villa snatching the title from us. Sir Bobby never used more than 14 or 15 players in a season and look at what he achieved once he got rid of the trouble makers and got his own players in. My main fear is that Ireland or some so called bigger club will come calling for Mick & Terry if we start to show signs of success - that's when we will see if there is any loyalty and you all know what the answer to that question is. You won't see them for dust and the contracts will be meaningless. I hope I am wrong and they stay and achieve that entry to the Premier League but I am old and cynical.

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GeorgiDoundarov added 14:41 - Aug 1 It is true in general you need to stick to your players and don't do overhauls to build a stronger team. So up to here I agree with the author. But in our specific case (and to be realistic) all the players who was shown the door to were really to go if we are really to be pushing for promotion. There were not a lot of the last season players that I can say "yes this is a Premiership material". So in this case the overhaul is needed. In order to keep your players you need first to get them. On the other point of the piece that it is too early to say we are capable to push for promotion this season I will agree again in general only. Yes if there are lots of strong clubs in the Championship like it was the case in the 1990s and 2000s with a newly built team of mainly young players it is unthinkable. But in this league, which we experience in the recent years basically anybody can go up!!! There are no strong or weak teams it is just the same level teams. And in such league thinks like unity and good strong manager can make the difference. And this is why I really believe we have a chance even in this first full year of Mick at the helm. If we play united, have the good spirit in the dressing rooms and have the strong manager this can just be enough to make the difference in the current league. COYB!!!

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62WasBest added 16:14 - Aug 1 I think you are entirely right but I think you don't take enough account of modern football. Time is the element few have the luxury of. Since Bosman the whole relationship between clubs and players has changed. Most contracts are short term, with longer contracts being the exception. Many players expect to move clubs regularly in a way that few people moved around the country chasing jobs years ago, footballers included. Any player performing well soon falls prey to the lure of clubs higher up the leagues. It is hard to build a team in a couple of seasons and unless there is some modicum of success, it's hard to retain players out of contract unless promising the things they want. i.e. longer contracts, the same or more money. Managerial skills are much more diverse today because of this. It isn't mainly about coaching anymore. When the effects of the recession start to really hit football and if the fair play rules work as intended. then we may see things settle down a little.

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Fatcatevans added 16:21 - Aug 1 I see Theobald 1985 has already decided that Tunnicliffe is no better than Drury and Tunnicliffe no better than the awful Martin without seeing them kick a ball for Town. A good article and well thought out. Interesting that Ramsey only added Doug Moran to his squad/ team after winning the 2nd division and prior to winning the senior league in England.
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theobald1985 added 17:10 - Aug 1 fatcatevans nothing against the new lads but i think these players are all a much of a muchness to be honest and its better the devil you know. I have seen anderson play tho and am certain he is not better nor worse overall than martin both got there pros and cons as a full back id rather have martin in front of me but proberbly rather mark martin. its swings and roundabouts but overall im in favour of stability and against campaigns of hate like the one you lanched against lee martin last season. Good luck to all the new players this season and lets get behind them even if they have a dip in form

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bayblue added 06:40 - Aug 2 Totally agree with this article - spot on. I became disillusioned last season for the very reason highlighted here. My other yardstick is "If all the squad were put up for sale today, how many would go to Premiership clubs?" My answer is one - Cresswell.
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Blueray added 14:48 - Aug 2 This is a great blog, both in terms of readbility and its outcome in provoking friendly debate. However, because football has changed so much in the last 20 years (for better, or for worse) I think the stats are misleading. I don't think you can compare like for like in terms of team stability unless you look at the player turnover at the clubs who have been promoted in the last 10 years. Football has changed. Footballers have become more mercenary, more flexible, less loyal. That said, this isn't a great Ipswich side, and have no place to claim favouritism. But....it is well led, it does seem to have good team spirit...(Tab, Murphy, McGoldrick all coming back for more...) and we have shed some of those who, perhaps, weren't singing from the same hymn sheet (chopra, Jet). We are not world beaters...but we might not be a bad bet for top six either...

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Pessimistic added 12:51 - Aug 4 Excellent blog and thanks for the memories! I am hopeful that with Mich the Man in charge Town can do a lot better this term and I think if we sneak into the play-offs we will have over-excelled!
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MVBlue added 11:07 - Aug 5 You've got a good point. Really does make sense and proven by the 2001/2002 season failure. However other teams have achieved it, best approach is possibly to buy proven premiership players. The genius of Alex Fergeson is his rebuild every 4 years of Premiership and trophy winning teams.
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Middlin added 16:26 - Aug 22 Medway Tractor You make the point of an analogy with ruby sides having 300+ caps , Remember the 2003 England world cup side 638 caps great experience yes . Average age 28 ,would they win the next one never . Its not all about having lots of experience, energy and skill play their part also if you let a team like the 2003 RFU team grow old together then you have problems for years building a new team . You need new and young players all the time look at the famous Arsenal back four by the end they were almost drawing pension and how leaky was the new back four .

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