In my last blog I bemoaned Mick McCarthy’s pass completion stats – where his teams are consistently poor - this time I’m looking at shots on target to try and evaluate performance. Apologies if it gets a bit geeky.

Shots on target (for and against) are usually a good measure of a team’s underlying attacking and defensive strength – particularly over the shorter term when actual goals scored and conceded can be unreliable because they are so infrequent.

Mick’s teams do much better with this stat. I’m trying to illustrate the underlying performance of Town’s (and other teams’) attack and defence on a timeline like the chart below (I hope these make some sense).

Firstly, looking at shots on target, after a good start there was a real dip after the Sheffield Wednesday match – with Town only managing to match last season’s average of five once, against Bristol City.

Fortunately since Bolton at home things have improved and we’re now pretty much at last season’s average. This could be due to Daryl Murphy’s return to form but may also reflect the quality of opposition.

Looking at shots on target conceded, again we’re now close to last season’s average. Defensive performance has been more variable – and seems to be improving. But Charlton managed six shots on target in the last match, which is equal to the most conceded this season.

However, these were mostly when Town were 3-0 up. It’s difficult to work out whether these were due to Town’s defensive shortfalls or just the state of the game. Whatever, it was an extraordinary performance by Dean Gerken to keep a clean sheet.

The Charlton match marked an improvement in Town’s record of stopping shots on target.

This graph shows the percentage of shots on target saved. On this measure Town are doing poorly. Normally around 70% of shots on target are saved, and Ipswich are performing below this (although the Charlton match improved things). This could be due to poor goalkeeping, but also simply bad luck – because this stat tends to revert to the 70% average over the long-term.

The final graph shows Town’s percentage of shots on target scored. This is running close to the 30% league average.

So, in conclusion, there are reasons to be cheerful. Town’s underlying stats are remarkably consistent with last season – shots on target for and against, as well as pass completion. The only area where Town are falling short is saving shots on target – and there is every reason to believe that this will improve.

The Championship table ranked by Shots on Target difference (average per game, for minus against) is as follows:

Ipswich are sixth. Given the consistency with last season, it’s reasonable to conclude our natural position in this league is around sixth . And this, at least, is what Town should be targeting.

I'll be tweeting updates of Town's underlying performance on @goalprojection

Stato added 09:03 - Dec 4 Firstly another interesting read so thanks for posting. Shot saving is an area many of us perceive Gerken to be a strong performer so interesting that the stats prove this not to be the case. So in other words not only does he flap at the crosses but he also struggles with the shots that follow.
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BlueKush added 20:26 - Dec 8 Play Bart and stop faffing about pretending our backup keeper is better than our first choice one. The stats are shocking and Gerken's giving it the big potato - and Mick has never dropped him unless he's injured. Painful.
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