What with Christmas and Sky Sports' scheduling it’s difficult to keep up with the Championship at the moment, but a quick glance at the table shows 23 games played - the halfway point.

Actually, at time of writing, Forest and Leeds still have an outstanding match in the 23rd round of fixtures. But the postponement of Boro’s game at Blackburn, a casualty of unyielding northern rain, means we won’t get a perfect midpoint anyway. So we’re pretty much at halfway, which is usually a good time to take stock of where things are.

In my half-term report I use my 'adjusted goals' rating measure to assess teams’ performance. This isn’t anything too complicated – it simply uses a combination of goals, shots on target and shots to rate each team’s attack and defence. The formula is:

Adjusted goals = 45.0%*Goals + 8.4%*”Shots on target” + 2.8%*Shots. I’ve found this measure predicts future performance better than goals scored or conceded, or points attained (although in the Championship no measure is particularly good at predicting future performance). If you’re interested I’ve explained the rationale for this measure in my blog here.

So here’s the report:

Best Attack – Hull City

This is a bit of an odd one. Surprisingly Fulham (currently in 18th position) have scored the most goals (36). But Hull have managed the most shots on target at an average of nearly five per match. This gives them the highest attack rating of 1.55 adjusted goals per match.

Worst Attack – Preston North End

This one’s shaded by Preston, equal lowest goal scorers with Bolton, but poorest by virtue of fewer shots on target and an attack rating of only 0.99 adjusted goals per match.

Best Defence – Derby County

Just pipping Middlesbrough by conceding just three shots on target on average per game.

Worst Defence – Charlton Athletic

Another strange one. Fulham, as well as highest scorers, have also conceded most goals. But Charlton’s shots conceded total makes them worst.

Best Team – Derby County

This is based on adjusted goal difference. On this measure Derby, Middlesbrough and Hull are way ahead of the rest. And out of these three Derby win out, just.

Worst team – Charlton Athletic

Looking at the league table it’s surprising it’s not Bolton – but on underlying goals and shots Charlton are worst.

The full numbers are as follows (all figures are average per match):

Luckiest team – Brighton and Hove Albion

This one’s a bit tenuous, but I use the adjusted goals measure to work out what points a team would normally get for a given rating. Based on this Brighton have got nearly seven points more than expected. This might be luck – or just great finishing and defending.

Unluckiest Team – Reading

Based on the same measure Reading would expect nearly 11 more points than they’ve got.

The full numbers are as follows:

Team most likely to get promoted - Middlesbrough

For this I use a long-term adjusted goals rating, which takes account of last season’s form too (which is why Boro are ahead). The model carries out 5000 simulations of potential scenarios from the current point in the season. Boro are top but Derby and Hull are close behind.

Team most likely to get relegated – Bolton

Not surprisingly Bolton are the most likely team.

But to show how volatile things can be in the Championship – Ipswich could finish up pretty much anywhere.

Goal Scoring

Halfway through the season goal scoring is low (apart from Fulham matches!) with an average of 2.41 per match, which is lower than all of the past six seasons. Home advantage has remained steady at around 0.29 additional goals per game.

carsey added 14:22 - Dec 28 Wish I understood what you have written. Does it mean Town will get promoted, should get promoted or will get into the playoffs only to fall at the first hurdle again.
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WestSussexBlue added 08:57 - Dec 29 What a complete load of Tosh.
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bohslegend added 13:22 - Dec 29 This is a great report realprojection. Takes a lot of the subjectivity out of many of the debates on TWTD and puts a little bit of science to it. Slightly at an angle to the topic, it would be interesting to see interesting to see these figures again when you factor in the impact of investment on the squad overall and what that should/does mean in relation to performance on the pitch so far.

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realprojection added 17:54 - Dec 29 Thanks for the feedback. bohslegend - that would be good, I think there are some models that use investment (or wage bill) to predict future performance, which obviously is quite a strong factor. I'm not sure where this data is available. There was a good blog on here about agents fees - there is some (not too big) relationship between performance and spending on agents. Carsey - Based on my model (which might be a complete load of tosh) I reckon the chances of different outcomes are Automatic promotion 3% Win play offs 8% Lose in play-offs 42% Outside top 6 and not relegated 47% Relegated 0% Calmore Blue I'm trying to make sense of the Championship using more measures than those in the League table. But Championship is notoriously unpredictable - so it might well be a complete load of tosh

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michael99 added 18:20 - Dec 29 Adjusted goals??ffs u sir are obviously a right nerd. The only things that matter are how many goals you score and how many goals you concede. If your team generally scores more than it concedes then it will win games and be awarded 3 points because that team is better than the opposition. You cant predict how lucky or unlucky a team is there is no such thing, or predict where a team will finish. Ipswich for example have 37 points at the halfway stage, so its a good bet that they will probably get around the 74 mark if they continue that form which would probably put them in the play offs,but could go out of form have injuries etc. and finish with 50 points, or could remain unbeaten for the rest of the season and get automatic promotion. Why are you overcomplicating a simple game of football?

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MogwaiBlue added 09:15 - Dec 30 As the fund managers always like to tell us 'past results are no guarantee of future performance' Extrapolating from one half of a season in a very unpredictable league is at best, shaky. Still, keeps you off the streets eh? ;-)
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