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Comparison Time Again
Written by KBsSocks on Friday, 3rd Nov 2017 11:16

Mick McCarthy and Bobby Ferguson have each now managed ITFC for 251 games.

Executive Summary

McCarthy is the new John Lyall for the past couple of seasons.
For McCarthy''s time at Town overall, he is the new Bobby Ferguson.

Comparing Mick to Mick, he's not doing so well the past 106 games to his first three seasons. Away points are better, but home performances are sadly down.

The bulk of this analysis concentrates comparing Mick to Mick. In detail:

1) Comparing Mick to Mick

For the last league 106 games (this season plus 2015/16 and 2016/17) to Mick's prior 145 games (plus all cup games, sorry).

HA
pt/gmgF/gmgA/gmpt/gmgF/gmgA/gm
1.9291.6140.9141.0801.0671.453previous seasons (plus ALL cup games)
1.5281.3021.0571.2081.0381.415last two seasons plus this
1.7141.5711.1431.2861.7142.000this season only (small sample size!)
79%81%116%112%97%97%change for last 106 league games compared to first 145 games (plus cup games)
89%97%125%119%161%138%change this season (league only) compared to first 145 games (plus ALL cup games)
114%125%110%108%183%151%change this season compared to previous two (league games only)

Home

Mick's teams got 79% of the home points and 81% of the home goals allowing 16% more goals in at home in the last 53 home league games compared to the previous (league and cup) 70 games Mick was in charge.

Mick's teams got 89% of the home points and 97% of the home goals allowing 25% more goals in at home in this season's small number of home league games, seven, compared to the first league (and all cup) 70 games Mick was in charge.

His teams got 14% more home points and 25% more home goals conceding 10% more goals at home in this season's small number of home league games compared to the previous two seasons' home league games.

Conclusion

Mick is doing better this season so far than the previous two at home, but is still falling short of the standards he set in his first three seasons.

Away

Mick's teams got 12% more away points and 97% of the away goals allowing 97% of the goals in away in the last 53 away league games compared to the previous (and cup) 75 away games Mick was in charge.

His teams got 19% more away points and 61% more away goals allowing 38% more goals in awayin this season's small number of away league games, seven, compared to the first league (and all cup) 75 games Mick was in charge.

Mick's teams got 8% more away points and 83% more away goals allowing 51% more goals in away in this season's small number of away league games compared to the previous two seasons' 46 away league games.

Conclusion

Mick is doing better this season so far than the previous two away,
and continues to show improvements on his first three seasons in terms of away points, for approximately the same goals scored and conceded overall.

Questions

How much of the home difference is down to the fans adversely affecting player performance? Mick's teams are getting 12% more points away these days (106 games H and A) than in the first 145 games MM was in charge.

How much of the home difference would be less down to the fans
if the manager were more positive in interactions with and about them? “And it appears I’ve offended one or two..."

2) Comparing Mick to Bobby Ferguson, both 251 games in charge, and John Lyall (220) and Bill McGarry (192 games)

Overall

Home points per game: better than Ferguson and Lyall; not as good as Bill McGarry.
Similar goals for per game to Ferguson and Lyall, but not as good as McGarry.

Away points similar to McGarry, better than the other two.
Away goals similar to Ferguson and Lyall, not as goal-festy as McGarry.

Past 106 Games

Worse home points per game total than all, even John Lyall. Worst home goals for per game. He has recorded 20% more points away than Ferguson and Lyall during the past two seasons, but similar goals away (for and against).

Conclusion

MIck is the new Bobby Ferguson overall - a few more points per season being the difference ( one or two at home, three more points per season away).

In the past two seasons, he's been the new John Lyall in terms of home points (but with fewer goals), but got 20% more points away (4.5 points per season), for the same goals scored/conceded as Lyall.

Fine margins! Discuss.





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ronnyd added 12:43 - Nov 4
The here and now is is what is important at the moment. History is good but doesn,t win points or matches. Good stats though. Never wanted McCarthy when he was appointed and have no reason to change my mind.
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Daleyitfc added 13:49 - Nov 4
All bar 1 of Ferguson's seasons in charge were spent in the top flight, so comparisons are totally invalid, though there are similarities in attitude between the 2 i.e. a fatal combination of incompetence and arrogance.
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KBsSocks added 16:07 - Nov 4
@Daley - what are you saying ?! "comparisons are totally invalid, though there are similarities ..." Hang on ...

Anyway, you're basically right, that comparing managers to MM from the sixties, eighties, and probably also the early nineties is of limited utility. But I hope it does put a bit of perspective on how things are at the moment. The bulk of the blog compares Mick to Mick. But those of us who remember - Ferguson resigned, Lyall was sacked; and BMcG was before my time.

Next comparison: at the end of NEXT season; or else when MM reaches GB's total games in charge !
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carsey added 21:10 - Nov 4
I have to confess I couldn't understand a word of the blog other than the conclusions!!!
Having supported Town since Robson's day my view is next to John Duncan McCarthy is the worst manager we have had and that includes Keane.
His style and tactics are so far out of date it's embarrassing and his arrogance and attitude towards the fans disgraceful.
If he were really any good the likes of Palace and Everton would have come calling for him but they haven't.
I judge a manager by how his teams play and what he is trying to achieve as much as results and McCarthy is dreadful.
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KBsSocks added 22:55 - Nov 4
Yeah, sorry, carsey.

pt/gm means points per game
gF/gm means goals For per game
and so on.

So MM got an average of 1.929 (nearly two) points per game at Home in his first three seasons; 1.528 (just over 1.5) pt/gm at home last two seasons plus this (not including today's result). And so on.

His Away progress has been 1.1 then 1.2 pt/gm.
This season it has been 1.3 points per game Away
(but only a small number of games).

:-)
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BooM76 added 19:58 - Nov 5
Jeez carsey, you might have well said I don't like veggies cuz candy smells nice. I too do not like what I see when we play sometimes and am also like wtf?? but I truly don't think MM is the problem anywhere near as much as people lean on him. I am not going to go on the rant of the positives I see in him, you either know by now or don't. But what I will say is look at Man Utd under Jose. Snore football. Loved watching Utd under Fergie. But Jose gets results, and does the job. Ignore the massive resources etc, not the point. MM does a fine job with our current state and stock. A truly fine job. Is he our answer to european football? maybe not ... but to say he is worse than Keane, the dark lord ... thats just cray brah!! Thanks for the 3 points on the weekend after a rough spell MM .. and still in 7th! Not bad lads
COYB!
1

ABINGTONBLUEBOY added 19:53 - Nov 6
Perhaps all the current disgruntled fans should consider this little statistic.We would all probably agree that our best season for the last 10 years ended in May 2015 with Micks Ipswich reaching the playoffs. That season after 15 games we were 8th with 24 points with a + 6 goal difference. What do you know its same as this year with 2 goals difference. We all know it aint gonna be pretty and we re gonna grind out the points. But to my mind if we reach the playoffs by whatever means, then it will be a successful season. So come on lets all pull together and support the Club. You need to have a "Glass full" attitude if you re a Town supporter. COYBs
3

Pilgrimblue added 10:21 - Nov 11
I support the Blues come what may but that doesn't have to mean that I have to accept Mick. Season so far is better than I'd expected and while the stats suggest Mick is on course for another play-off place, he'll have to up his game against better sides.
For me Mick has run his course and I look forward to new manager taking over at end of season.
1

heathen66 added 20:54 - Nov 11
Just counting the days until Maurice Steijn takes the reigns.
In all honesty I love stats however there are no pictures in any record book.
The 'entertainment' (may need to look that word up in the dictionary) that we have had to endure over the last 3 years has been awful. The tactics are out dated and Mick Treats the club and the supporters with no respect whatsoever.
I have been a fan of the mighty Blues since the Whymark and Woods days (70s) and have continued to support the 'Club' throughout the roller coaster ride and I still do not want to get off, however things have never been this bad...not under Bobby Ferguson, not under John Duncan nor Roy Keane (even Paul Jewells brand of football was not this bad)...and Mick should not be spoken in the same sentence as the gentleman that was John Lyall
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KBsSocks added 09:43 - Nov 13
I watched Woods, Whymark and Johnson, and remember Burley's debut ...
and a fabulous 0-0 draw with Burnley at PR. Anyway, I have to disagree with you heathen66 on RK compared to MM.

The last 106 games for MM don't compare particularly favourably - 97% of RK's points won at Home, but 10% more goals For (Home, HgF) per game versus 98% HgA; Away, points are 6% better than Keano's, but goals ... AgF 84%, AgA 94%. Similar, on these broad statistics.

BUT, overall the figures are much more favourable MM to RK:
Hpt/gm 111%, HgF 125%, HgA 98%
Apt/gm 96%, AgF 86%, AgA 95%.
MM is improving Away, too.

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