Premier League Preview: Brighton and Hove Albion Written by ad_wilkin on Wednesday, 15th Jan 2025 08:55 The Fabian Hurzeler project is now half a season in and appears to be going through a bit of a dip currently. The Seagulls sit 10th in the league following four straights draws and their last win came all the way back in November when they beat Bournemouth 2-1. Most fans understand that there may be some suffering in the transition to a new manager but a small section are getting fed up and murmurings of discontent are beginning.
Previous Match (Brighton 0-0 Ipswich)The trip to the Amex is still Town’s only goalless draw of the season and that clean sheet was largely thanks to one man. In terms of numbers, it was Town’s best goalkeeping performance of the season. Aro Muric’s six saves were only bettered by his eight against West Ham and he kept the highest PSxG (Post Shot Expected Goals) difference to goals conceded with +2.1, keeping Town’s first clean sheet out of just two in the first half of the season. In essence, that means his saves prevented what should have been two goals. The best save came when he dived across to his right to deny a Georginio Rutter shot before scrambling across to also keep out Karou Mitoma’s follow-up Town’s 0.3 xG was the second lowest of all games despite six shots. Only the Arsenal game was lower. Most of that will have been generated by Liam Delap’s lung-busting run from his own half, making it all the way into the penalty box before firing a shot from a tight angle against the post. If it had gone in, it would certainly have been a goal of the season contender. Town attempted the second-least passes of all matches with a completion rate of 70% as they were very much forced to sit deep and attempt to threaten on the counter-attack with fast dribbles, given how effective Brighton’s pressing of the ball was. Twenty-one attempted take-ons was Ipswich’s second-highest of all games in the first half of the season. They only tried more against Wolves but they weren’t successful in this one with 52.4% resulting in the dribbler being tackled. Town had just 32% possession but in games against Fulham last week, Manchester City and Chelsea, the Blues had less of the ball. They also had 32% against Arsenal. Town’s 99 touches in the defensive penalty area is the second-highest all season with just the game against Liverpool having more. Despite conceding ground to Brighton, they still defended admirably. Fourteen tackles won was the most Town made in a game, largely locking down the penalty box and limiting Brighton to shots from range (their average shot distance was 18.5 yards, only Aston Villa were forced to shoot from further away in the first half of the season). Town made 18 blocks, 10 of which were blocked shots, also both the highest in a game out of all matches in the first half of the season. Below shows both sides' average position of their defensive actions.
Brighton’s last game (Brighton 1-1 Arsenal)Brighton conceded early in this one following a catalogue of errors that let Ethan Nwanieri slip in down the right-hand side, cut inside and finish past Bart Verbruggen. Arsenal, however, were unable to seize on their first-half dominance and it was the half-time changes from Hurzeler which changed the game. Yankuba Minteh and Georgino Rutter replaced Brajan Gruda and Matt O’Riley bringing more pace and skill to that frontline and allowing Brighton to carry the ball up the pitch more on the counter. It was Rutter’s run that progressed the ball up the pitch, shrugging off defenders before the ball found Joao Pedro in the box. The Brazilian flicked the ball up and was going to head it away from his man when he got headbutted in the side of the head. Anthony Taylor had no hesitation in pointing to the spot and Pedro converted the resultant penalty. At the risk of angering Arsenal fans, I think it should have been a penalty. There’s contact with the player and no touch on the ball at all. The game largely fizzled out from there with both sides counteracting each other. Declan Rice’s shot from range in the 79th minute was the only shot on target for either side after the penalty.
Three to watchCarlos Baleba Other than Jens Cajuste, there’s not many more midfielders that I've enjoyed watching than Baleba. The young Cameroonian is averaging 1.6 interceptions per game, which is the mark of a good deep-lying defender, particularly one in a possession-based team. He’s there seizing on the ball before he even needs to make a tackle. Only Tyler Adams and Ryan Gravernberch have more putting him in excellent company. Georginio Rutter With Joao Pedro suffering from injury, it was Rutter who led the line in the FA Cup against Norwich and he ended up with a brace, scoring the opener with a great leap to head in at the back post and following that up with the second of the game, peeling off to the right, receiving the pass from Minteh and slamming in past George Long at his near post. The former Leeds man's versatility has been fully utilised by Fabian Hurzeler and we could see him at Portman Road as the striker, the number ten or on the right wing, although he is a fitness doubt. What is certain is that front four will be fluid and Ipswich’s defenders will have to track their runs very carefully. Jan Paul van Hecke Van Hecke is Brighton’s only fully fit centre-back and of the pair is usually the more aggressive. He has excellent passing range averaging 4.3 accurate long balls per game (fourth-highest in the league). This is important to the way Brighton attack with those long passes helping them gain territory up the pitch and often pick out their tricky wingers, who can then get one-on-one with their defender. He also averages the 12th-highest number of passes per game in general, which shows how Brighton are still a very possession-based team. Town will have to work incredibly hard to get the ball back in this one.
January BusinessJust the one incoming for the Seagulls so far with Diego Gomez joining from Inter Miami. The Paraguayan is a young midfielder, who has excelled in the MLS whilst also being capped nine times by Paraguay and is likely to be slowly integrated into the team.
The TeamsBrighton are going through something of an injury crisis at the moment. Danny Welbeck has been out for a while but returned as a sub at Norwich. Lewis Dunk has a recurring thigh strain that is limiting his playing time, while Igor Julio limped off against Arsenal and is out for the season. Pedro sustained a knock in training that kept him out against Norwich but isn’t too serious. This could mean game time for Adam Webster at the back alongside Van Hecke, although Dunk should be fit enough to play some minutes. The Baleba and Yasin Ayari midfield combination seems to have a balance that Hurzeler likes but in front of that is anyone’s guess. Simon Adingra has been preferred on the left to Karou Mitoma in recent games but his form has dipped and I think Mitoma will come in for this one. The middle two depends on Pedro’s fitness but could be Rutter and Welbeck if he’s not available. On the right, Minteh has also struggled with fitness and knocks so Brajan Gruda has had more game time. They’re very different profiles with Gruda getting on the ball and drifting inside. He could rotate with Rutter with the former Leeds man ending up more on the right if he plays, whilst Minteh brings a more direct threat running in behind Leif Davis.
For Town, the questions are around the two behind Delap and whether there will be any defensive changes following the addition of Ben Godfrey, who had a comfortable debut against Bristol Rovers on Sunday. I think the former Everton man will come in at the expense of Luke Woolfenden, particularly given Mitoma’s threat down that side. As for the two 10s, Nathan Broadhead has been excellent, so you’d think he’ll definitely be one of them which leaves a toss-up between Jack Clarke and Jack Taylor for the other spot, with the Jaden Philogene signing still not completed at the time of writing. Both did well against Bristol Rovers but I think Clarke’s attributes suit the counter-attacking gameplan slightly better particularly as the biggest positive about his performance Sunday was how he dribbled through the middle, something Town look to do in this new 5-2-2-1 formation.
PredictionIt looks on paper like a very good time to play Brighton. They’re suffering with a bit of an injury crisis and confidence will be low as they look for their first win in nine games, but let's not forget this is a club that was in the Europa League last year. They contain a squad of young talent coupled with a smattering of experienced heads. Defensively, Town were superb at the Amex, if they can add a bit of clinicality on the counter-attack, something that was in full effect against Chelsea, I think they can win this, just. I’m going for a 1-0l. Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided. You need to login in order to post your comments |
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