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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 20:18 - May 15 with 1029 viewsEireannach_gorm

I have been investigating the Lockdown Vs Herd Immunity approaches to the pandemic.

In Ireland, because of our historical shortage of ICU beds ( approx 220 ), we had no choice but to go down the lockdown route. Sweden took the Herd Immunity approach.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swe

The jury is out on the long term outcome for the two approaches and every country has deciding factors which way to go. I have been watching the excellent FT Covid website and there is some great number crunching going on. Of course the disclaimer is 'Lies, damn lies and statistics'.

Interesting to see the death rate in the two countries ( plus UK ). I assume the jaggedness in curve is due to the smaller population ( Ireland has 1/2 population of Sweden and UK 6 times plus Sweden )


This is a cumulative chart


As an aside, Belgium is the highest on the chart and the US is below Ireland amazingly.

It's going to be very interesting to see how the graph changes with the relaxation of lockdown in the various countries.
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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 20:38 - May 15 with 969 viewsEireannach_gorm

Should have included these two charts for balance.
These are Covid-19 infection cases.



The glitch on the Ireland graph is due to one hospital misreporting ( which is illegal but that's another official investigation waiting in the wings )


Seems Lockdown doesn't necessarily flatten the curve after all.
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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 21:46 - May 15 with 902 viewslinhdi

Belgium is an outlier because they count all suspected CV19 cases. Closest equivalent would be the UK'S ONS excess mortality stats, which would put UK much higher on the chart.
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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 22:18 - May 15 with 874 viewsGuthrum

The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 20:38 - May 15 by Eireannach_gorm

Should have included these two charts for balance.
These are Covid-19 infection cases.



The glitch on the Ireland graph is due to one hospital misreporting ( which is illegal but that's another official investigation waiting in the wings )


Seems Lockdown doesn't necessarily flatten the curve after all.


The problem is, that works if you are comparing several sets of identical circumstances - quite apart from differences in reporting.

However, there are quite a lot of variables in there. If the disease had multiple entry points (e.g. several very busy international airports) then it might spread faster than a single, point source. Distribution and internal mobility of the populace will make a difference to the spread. As will environmental factors and how they affect the virus itself. Many of these things we will not be able to identify until all the data has been examined.

Also, it has to be borne in mind that while Sweden has not had a formal lockdown, they have been using social distancing measures. Also, their figures have not yet started to come down.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 22:23 - May 15 with 867 viewsTrequartista

The only conclusion i keep coming to is that no-one really has any proof of anything. For every "a means b" there's a "whatabout c?"

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 09:07 - May 16 with 699 viewsbluejacko

The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 22:23 - May 15 by Trequartista

The only conclusion i keep coming to is that no-one really has any proof of anything. For every "a means b" there's a "whatabout c?"


Just about sums it up perfectly!
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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 14:34 - May 16 with 607 viewsTrequartista

The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 09:07 - May 16 by bluejacko

Just about sums it up perfectly!


I mean it's a new virus, so I would expect this to a certain extent, but it has exposed how little even experts really know.

Poll: Who do you blame for our failure to progress?

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The two approaches of dealing with Covid-19 on 16:26 - May 16 with 562 viewsRadlett_blue

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/europe-emerges-lockdown-qu
An interesting point of view from Simon Jenkins. I still think slowly relaxing the lockdown while advising the elderly & vulnerable to protect themselves is the only sustainable policy.
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