| Haven’t put many horses up this year but I fancy one big Saturday 05:01 - Nov 26 with 3857 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Asides from the Cheltenham (and Grand National) threads that I post onto here and elsewhere, I’ve only put up two horses this year. One was a disappointing loser and the other was the 45/1 winner back in January that half of TWTD seemed to be on. Takingrisks it was aptly called. However, the good/bad news is I have another I really fancy running this weekend.
In the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury - Kitty’s Light at 10/1 each way (7 places Skybet and William Hill).
He’s looking to be the youngest horse for many years to win the race which some might see as a big negative and is a huge part as to his price. However, for one so young he’s incredibly experienced in these types of races and I’ve long thought he’d run huge if in the Ladbroke with the pace the race is run at every year. He wants a trip. Always has and always will. Look at his run last year at Wincanton (very flat track and the race becomes a sprint down the back straight) where he was flat to the boards before staying on remarkably over 3m in the last 2 furlongs to finish a remarkable 2nd. He must’ve passed at least 10 horses in the straight.
Fast forward to the end of last season in the Bet365 Gold Cup when he stayed on again up the hill after the last fence and was about to win before the leader took him out and carried him left. That horse was disqualified back with Kitty’s Light moved up to second but as another horse benefitted from the antics of the leader, KL by rule could only be given second. An absolute robbery. I was on him that day too. He loved the 3m 5f trip.
This will be his third run of the season after a good performance on his seasonal reappearance when second and then a personal best (arguably) when running second (would’ve been third but for the leader Shan Blue tumbling at the last when clear) in a Grade 2. Once again in both of those two runs he stayed on powerfully. And both races were over 3 miles.
The Ladbroke (it’s the Hennessy to those of us who have some level of tradition in the Sport) is over 3m 2f and it’s renowned for being run at a fast pace from the start. Put frankly, his staying power makes him absolutely perfect for this. Reminds me of what I expected with Takingrisks when he won for us as a horse that is a proven stayer and I can’t see him not placing at the very least.. but wouldn’t at all be suprised to see him win. I really fancy him here. He may even get his preferred ground of good to soft where he’s had his best results but even if it turns soft, that won’t trouble him. And it will slow his rivals down which may actually be a benefit.
It’s a quality race as it always is but Kitty’s Light is young, improving, has the experience in a big field handicap like this, is consistent, has got everything he wants here (trip, fast pace, likely ground, track) and is a double figure price with 7 places on offer. I think he’s an absolutely superb bet and thought I just had to post it onto here.
Saturday Newbury 3:00 - Kitty’s Light at 10/1 each way (7 places Sky & WH)
Good luck all, gamble responsibly. [Post edited 26 Nov 2021 5:20]
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| Haven’t put many horses up this year but I fancy one big Saturday on 21:27 - Nov 27 with 403 views | Ryorry |
| Haven’t put many horses up this year but I fancy one big Saturday on 20:33 - Nov 27 by RKD |
That's a pretty dangerous belief to pedal. Encouraging people to keep betting when they are on a losing streak, even when you put aside the ethical issues with horse racing in general. |
Hi RKD, nice to see you around again.
Sorry to disagree with you soon as you come back, but you have it wrong there.
My comment was aimed at people who are gambling responsibly, to encourage them to gamble *more* responsibly.
These people will already have set aside a specific sum of money (say £200) as a "betting bank" that they can afford to lose which is completely separate from their household money that they need to live on.
They should then be splitting up that bank into units (points) of say £10 each, and pro tipsters would be advising them to bet in points, eg 0.5pt e/w.
All pro tipsters should advertise their previous record, which should have been recorded to & verified by an independent 'prover', so that anyone thinking of following can see true records of the tipster's annual profits or losses.
As I said, if the tipster has a big win first off, I think it a good plan to take that and then stop, but that's my personal preference.
If the tipster has say 10 losses on the trot and punters pull out then, they'd have lost £100 of their £200 bank. The tipster might then go on to win with the 11th, which could recover punter's money and give a profit. If tipster goes on to have 10 more losses, then punter's bank is gone & they stop right there. A shame, but it's money they've set aside which they could afford to lose.*
*Edited to add: If you meant that punters shouldn't 'chase their losses', then I'd completely agree with that, but having a specific betting bank and plan in place for following a tipster for a set number of bets, then quitting at the end of that plan (or maybe earlier if in profit as I said above), isn't doing that. (*End of edit).
Fwiw I've stopped watching jumps racing & no longer support it as I can't stand seeing the fallers any more. In flat racing, more and more trainers are turning their horses out into paddocks on a daily basis for a more natural lifestyle, which had always been an important requirement for me, so good to see improvement there. But I'm not gonna get into a debate on racing as it's all been said before & I can't sit up for long atm.
Thought of you on Tues night btw, as R5l held a 1 hr+ feature on homelessness (11pm-midnight I think) with presenter Colin-something, the founder of Big Issue, an MP who'd helped set up 'Homes First' (or similar title) and another worker for homeless people. Absolutely excellent and worth a listen on BBC iPlayer (Sounds). [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 0:03]
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| Haven’t put many horses up this year but I fancy one big Saturday on 21:34 - Nov 27 with 378 views | vapour_trail |
| Haven’t put many horses up this year but I fancy one big Saturday on 21:27 - Nov 27 by Ryorry |
Hi RKD, nice to see you around again.
Sorry to disagree with you soon as you come back, but you have it wrong there.
My comment was aimed at people who are gambling responsibly, to encourage them to gamble *more* responsibly.
These people will already have set aside a specific sum of money (say £200) as a "betting bank" that they can afford to lose which is completely separate from their household money that they need to live on.
They should then be splitting up that bank into units (points) of say £10 each, and pro tipsters would be advising them to bet in points, eg 0.5pt e/w.
All pro tipsters should advertise their previous record, which should have been recorded to & verified by an independent 'prover', so that anyone thinking of following can see true records of the tipster's annual profits or losses.
As I said, if the tipster has a big win first off, I think it a good plan to take that and then stop, but that's my personal preference.
If the tipster has say 10 losses on the trot and punters pull out then, they'd have lost £100 of their £200 bank. The tipster might then go on to win with the 11th, which could recover punter's money and give a profit. If tipster goes on to have 10 more losses, then punter's bank is gone & they stop right there. A shame, but it's money they've set aside which they could afford to lose.*
*Edited to add: If you meant that punters shouldn't 'chase their losses', then I'd completely agree with that, but having a specific betting bank and plan in place for following a tipster for a set number of bets, then quitting at the end of that plan (or maybe earlier if in profit as I said above), isn't doing that. (*End of edit).
Fwiw I've stopped watching jumps racing & no longer support it as I can't stand seeing the fallers any more. In flat racing, more and more trainers are turning their horses out into paddocks on a daily basis for a more natural lifestyle, which had always been an important requirement for me, so good to see improvement there. But I'm not gonna get into a debate on racing as it's all been said before & I can't sit up for long atm.
Thought of you on Tues night btw, as R5l held a 1 hr+ feature on homelessness (11pm-midnight I think) with presenter Colin-something, the founder of Big Issue, an MP who'd helped set up 'Homes First' (or similar title) and another worker for homeless people. Absolutely excellent and worth a listen on BBC iPlayer (Sounds). [Post edited 28 Nov 2021 0:03]
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Complete bullsh!t, as standard. |  |
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