| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? 09:46 - Mar 10 with 2562 views | DJR |
Fascinating article in this week's Economist, which is paywalled (but to which I have access).
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/09/britain-has-endured-a-decade-of-ear
The following passage explains the position, and the Economist puts the situation down to three factors, in addition to problems in the NHS with regard to treatment, namely, failings in diagnosis, failings in prevention (including real terms cuts to public health budgets) and, what it regards as the greatest factor, deprivation.
"By our calculations, [250,000] is the number of extra deaths Britain has suffered, compared with similar countries such as France and Denmark. The reason is that, in the early 2010s, life expectancy stalled in Britain compared with long-run trends and other countries. This slowdown in life expectancy struck all age groups, not just the elderly. And it disproportionately affected the poor. If you travel just 10km (six miles) from the poshest part of Kensington in London to New Cross Gate, life expectancy for men falls by a staggering 18 years, from 92 to 74. The burden these deaths place on the living is not just weighed in grief. When more people are dying and life expectancy is stagnating, a greater number of people are also living in ill health.
Life expectancy in Britain, as in almost all other rich countries, had been rising for nearly two centuries. But something went wrong in the early 2010s. Life expectancy at birth today, at 81, is just eight weeks longer than it was in 2011. In a best-case scenario, in which the pace of improvement between 1980 and 2011 had been sustained, life expectancy today would have been over 83. By The Economist’s calculations, that is no minor difference: it implies that between 2012 and 2022 approximately 700,000 Britons died sooner than they might have.
Two features make this figure even more worrying. Death comes mostly when people are old. But the slowdown in life expectancy has occurred across all age groups. Mortality rates have stalled for infants, and risen among young adults and the middle-aged. Death rates for 30- to 49-year-olds have steadily increased in Britain since around 2012, in sharp contrast with neighbouring countries.
Although the deaths have been spread across generations, they have not been spread across the income spectrum. Life expectancy has fallen among the poorest in society but risen for the richest. A poor English girl could on average expect to live 6.8 years less than a rich girl in 2011, but 7.7 less in 2017. For boys, the gap increased from 9.1 to 9.5 years over the same period.
The combined effect of the pandemic and global demographic trends can explain only some of Britain’s missing multitude. Though other rich countries have also experienced slowdowns, Britain has done the worst out of a cohort of its European peers. After stripping out the effects attributable to covid and the broad European slowdown from the toll of 700,000, you are still left with those 250,000 unexplained deaths."
[Post edited 10 Mar 2023 9:58]
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:43 - Mar 10 with 495 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:08 - Mar 10 by DJR |
The only thing I have come across is the following from the Kings' Fund, which suggests any such long term projections are rather optimistic, but no doubt they will be relied on by the government to raise the state pension age.
"With the exception of the US, the UK’s pre-pandemic life expectancy was lower than in many comparator countries for males and was the lowest for females, and it experienced among the lowest gains in the pre-pandemic decade. The UK has also seen larger falls in life expectancy during the pandemic relative to several comparator countries. Meaningful long-term gains in life expectancy, reducing inequalities and improving the UK’s standing in international comparisons of life expectancy will be major challenges in the future." [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 14:10]
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I think you are arguing semantics here. I’m aware we are performing worse than our peers in Europe.
I was simply stating that life expectancy overall is likely to increase in the next few decades. The latest ONS figures (2022) confirm this (and generally the view in the pension industry) albeit with the age revised down from previous estimates (but still higher than where we are now).
I very much doubt whoever is in charge in the future will reverse the increases. |  | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:59 - Mar 10 with 470 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:43 - Mar 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I think you are arguing semantics here. I’m aware we are performing worse than our peers in Europe.
I was simply stating that life expectancy overall is likely to increase in the next few decades. The latest ONS figures (2022) confirm this (and generally the view in the pension industry) albeit with the age revised down from previous estimates (but still higher than where we are now).
I very much doubt whoever is in charge in the future will reverse the increases. |
Sorry, I wasn't trying to be semantic, just being a little bit sceptical.
It mustn't be forgotten that the current increases in the pension age were announced when the projections about future life expectancy were higher than they've turned out to be. And as the King's Fund said only last year, meaningful long-term gains in life expectancy will be a major challenge in the future.
If nothing else, the change in situation should put on hold suggestions about accelerating the increase in the pension age (which has recently been discussed in the media), but ultimately it will in my view be the state of finances that becomes the determining factor in all this.
But I agree that no government will reverse the increases. [Post edited 10 Mar 2023 15:02]
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| Because austerity, corruption, criminality and incompetence kill. (n/t) on 15:01 - Mar 10 with 467 views | BlueBadger |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:04 - Mar 10 with 448 views | BlueBadger |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:35 - Mar 10 by gtsb1966 |
The poorer diets thing is spot on. There is a big problem with people not prepared to actually make a healthy meal from scratch. I know people who live off processed foods and takeaways and moan how much their food bill has gone up yet won't spend half an hour preparing a meal. Vegetables, especially frozen, are still relatively cheap and frozen meat is cheaper than fresh. A healthy meal is a lot cheaper than buying processed or takeaways yet some people cant see it. |
A lot of these ingredients are relatively expensive to buy, require storage require a level of education in cooking that simply doesn't happen in schools now and take time, which people on lower incomes often don't have due to longer hours needing to be worked to make ends meet. | |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:14 - Mar 10 with 437 views | Buhrer |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:04 - Mar 10 by BlueBadger |
A lot of these ingredients are relatively expensive to buy, require storage require a level of education in cooking that simply doesn't happen in schools now and take time, which people on lower incomes often don't have due to longer hours needing to be worked to make ends meet. |
True, and also a lot of excuses for grown adults not meeting their own basic need for nutrition. I learnt over years starting when I moved out. There's books and now YouTube etc. Life isn't easy, time and money are tight, and thats not a reason to feed yourself sh it. |  | | |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:34 - Mar 10 with 423 views | DJR |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:35 - Mar 10 by gtsb1966 |
The poorer diets thing is spot on. There is a big problem with people not prepared to actually make a healthy meal from scratch. I know people who live off processed foods and takeaways and moan how much their food bill has gone up yet won't spend half an hour preparing a meal. Vegetables, especially frozen, are still relatively cheap and frozen meat is cheaper than fresh. A healthy meal is a lot cheaper than buying processed or takeaways yet some people cant see it. |
I am not sure the poor (which the article suggests is the biggest factor) have ever had great diets.
Wasn't it once said that you could tell a Tory MP from a Labour MP because the Tories were several inches taller? | | | |
| Because austerity, corruption, criminality and incompetence kill. (n/t) on 15:46 - Mar 10 with 394 views | homer_123 |
| Because austerity, corruption, criminality and incompetence kill. (n/t) on 15:01 - Mar 10 by BlueBadger |
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Something about Labour though.... |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:54 - Mar 10 with 374 views | chicoazul |
Who could possibly guess why being wealthy means you live longer. |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 15:54 - Mar 10 with 372 views | DanTheMan |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 14:35 - Mar 10 by gtsb1966 |
The poorer diets thing is spot on. There is a big problem with people not prepared to actually make a healthy meal from scratch. I know people who live off processed foods and takeaways and moan how much their food bill has gone up yet won't spend half an hour preparing a meal. Vegetables, especially frozen, are still relatively cheap and frozen meat is cheaper than fresh. A healthy meal is a lot cheaper than buying processed or takeaways yet some people cant see it. |
I'm always 50/50 on this. I do think we should do more to educate people about cooking basics, and why you do certain things. My mother made me laugh a few years ago when she said she's always put salt in the water with pasta but didn't know why she did it, she just did it because her mother did it. From my own experience through school, the cooking lessons were basically just "follow this recipe" and that's it. I'm sure / hope it's come on a bit since then.
That said, I don't think it's just complete laziness that people reach for processed foods. Processed foods are full of fats and salts that our bodies LOVE to crave, and when you've got a fairly crappy job and kids to feed, a little bit of dopamine from eating something unhealthy is going to be fairly bloody addictive.
They're quick, they're simple, there is much less washing up and they taste good (in the same way McDonalds tastes good, it's got lots of fat and salt).
Cooking something that is healthy, tasty and cheap is actually not easy. It takes time and quite a bit of practice to figure out what works and what doesn't. If you work long hours and have little money, the last thing you're going to want to do is to cook something only for it to taste like crap because you cooked it badly. Whereas oven chips, some breaded chicken and frozen peas are going to be a doddle. Or a Pizza shoved in the oven for 15 minutes.
And honestly, sometimes it doesn't even end that much cheaper. Sure, you could bulk buy frozen vegetables if you want to eat the same thing day in, day out. But as soon as you want to start cooking with any sort of variety that goes out the window, and suddenly those £2 processed meals seem awful tempting. |  |
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| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 19:24 - Mar 10 with 316 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Britain has endured a decade of early deaths. Why? on 11:41 - Mar 10 by Guthrum |
Poorer diets, sedentary lifestyles, binge-watching TV as a leisure pastime. Also mental health taking a battering from lack of provision and external circumstances (stress, lockdown, financial pressure, bad news). |
I would suspect another cause is poor quality housing. We have the oldest housing stock in the world and among the worst insulated, which causes significant harm to those most at risk of cold and damp homes, which includes the elderly.
The Conservatives killed off large-scale insulation schemes in the early 2010s as part of their "cutting the green crap" drive. |  | | |
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