| The gap between the Premier league and the Championship 08:44 - May 12 with 897 views | BlueRaider |
We've seen it with our eyes, it's huge
I thought I would make a statistical comparison between the leagues, and have used 6 teams - Leeds, Burnley, Sheffield United, Leicester, Southampton and us.
I looked at the difference between the goals for per game, and goals against per game and how these compare when teams were in the Premier league against the Championship.
Leeds - on relegation in 2022/23, they had a negative goals per game difference (GPGD) of -0.79, last season in the championship they had a positive GPGD of 0.82 so a difference of 1.62, this season their GPGD improved to 1.41
Leicester - on relegation in 2022/23, they had a negative GPGD of -0.44, in the Championship last season it was 1.04, a difference of 1.48. This year in the premier league it is -1.31, a huge drop off of -2.35.
Southampton - on relegation in 2022/23, they had a negative GPGD of -0.97, last season it was 0.52, and this year back in the premier league it is -1.58, so they improved by 1.48, but have then regressed by 2.11
Ipswich - In last seasons championship, our GPGD was 0.76, which has deteriorated to -1.17 in the Premier league, a difference of 1.92
Burnley - On promotion in 2022/23 their GPGD was 1.13, which fell to -0.97 in the Premier league, a difference of 2.1, they registered a GPGD this season of 1.15, an almost idential swing back
Sheffield United - In their promotion in 2022/23 they had a GPGD of 0.74, last season it was -1.82 (comfortably the worst of anyone) a drop of 2.56 ! This year they have a GPGD of 0.59, a recovery of 2.41.
These show the gap is enormous, teams are at least 1.5 goals per game worse off in the Premier league than in the Championship.
Clearly I am not comparing apples with apples, players will be bought and sold etc
To survive in the premier league you need to probably have a GPGD of no worse than -0.6 and some luck. If GPGD continues to deteriorate by between 1.5 and 2.5 you are going to need to record one on promotion of at least 1, if not 1.5.
Leeds perhaps then have a chance, a drop off of 2 from their 2024/25 figure of 1.41 would give -0.59. They have excellent goals for and against ratios (2.06 and 0.65)
Burnley would have to have a lot go for them, their GPGD of 1.15 is built almost entirely on their crazy defensive record.
Sheffield United (if they win the play offs), only have a GPGD of 0.59, the minimum drop off of 1.5 leaves them close to our performance, so very little chance.
For the 3 relegated sides in the championship, to better the best of the rest (Sunderland) who recorded a GPGD of 0.3 this season they will have to improve as follows :
Ipswich + 1.46
Leicester + 1.61
Southampton + 1.88
The average gap between the divisions has been 2.08, therefore statistically, these should be the top 3 in the championship next season (although there is the wildcard of Birmingham (GPGD of 1.15 this season) - for reference our GPGD fell by 0.67 between league one and the championship. |  |
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| The gap between the Premier league and the Championship on 10:09 - May 12 with 720 views | Rimsy |
You've got too much time on your hands  |  |
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| The gap between the Premier league and the Championship on 11:44 - May 12 with 530 views | NthQldITFC |
I think that's an interesting metric, but could you tabulate the six paragraphs (4 to 9) which detail the six clubs? Would make it easier to read and compare.
Sorry, lazy of me to ask, I've done it meself:
Red text is Premier, green Championship, blue league 1.
Red backgrounds are seasons following a relegation, blue seasons following a promotion, green same division as previous season.
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