| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 09:15 - Sep 24 with 450 views | DJR |
As has been apparent for some time, it seems Trump wants to play as little a part as possible in the defence of Ukraine, but he has no objection to the rest of NATO buying weapons from the US to carry on the fight. |  | |  |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 with 309 views | Guthrum |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 09:15 - Sep 24 by DJR |
As has been apparent for some time, it seems Trump wants to play as little a part as possible in the defence of Ukraine, but he has no objection to the rest of NATO buying weapons from the US to carry on the fight. |
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
* It's all needed to give tax cuts to the rich. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:05 - Sep 24 with 299 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 by Guthrum |
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
* It's all needed to give tax cuts to the rich. |
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten. |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:20 - Sep 24 with 267 views | Kievthegreat |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:05 - Sep 24 by ArnoldMoorhen |
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten. |
Hungary and to a lesser extent Slovakia, are useful thorns in the EU's side for Putin. Orban taking Hungary out of the EU (or being kicked out which feels more plausible) is bad for Russia. During Brexit we saw the impact of a large country leaving the EU, the pain was felt on both sides, but far more so on the UK side in part because of the imbalance of size.
A small country like Hungary would face a far greater turmoil. I doubt Putin wants to be shelling out to help Orban in Hungary to the extent he already helps Lukashenko. Hungary begging on his doorstep outside the EU would be a PR win but a strategic defeat. |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:23 - Sep 24 with 251 views | Guthrum |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:05 - Sep 24 by ArnoldMoorhen |
My off the wall, 50 to 1 shot, early doors prediction is that in two years time the war has n Ukraine ends and almost simultaneously Orban leaves NATO and the EU and falls in fully with Putin's Russia.
Putin has his victory over the West and the Special Military Operation can be quietly forgotten. |
Problem being that Budapest and the EU have a mutually dependent relationship. Without funding, trade links and support from the bloc, Hungary's economy is in trouble. In the other direction, the country sits in a vital strategic position, in the heart of the continent and across the River Danube.
Leaving NATO would also be tricky*. There is no direct route for Russia to send help in an emergency. Even if they trust Putin to do so. Serbia on their southern flank is politically volatile, but could one day flip to joining the EU and maybe even NATO, leaving Hungary completely surrounded.
* Austria's position is different, because it was never in. The Swiss have been neutral since the early 19th century. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:25 - Sep 24 with 232 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:20 - Sep 24 by Kievthegreat |
Hungary and to a lesser extent Slovakia, are useful thorns in the EU's side for Putin. Orban taking Hungary out of the EU (or being kicked out which feels more plausible) is bad for Russia. During Brexit we saw the impact of a large country leaving the EU, the pain was felt on both sides, but far more so on the UK side in part because of the imbalance of size.
A small country like Hungary would face a far greater turmoil. I doubt Putin wants to be shelling out to help Orban in Hungary to the extent he already helps Lukashenko. Hungary begging on his doorstep outside the EU would be a PR win but a strategic defeat. |
But the war is bleeding Russia dry and there has to be a face-saving way out.
I don't think there is currently a mechanism for the EUs other nations to kick out a member state (which is lunacy in itself) but Orban's constant provocations might lead to more of a push from the Western EU nations.
Withdrawal of budgetary aid?
Hungary is part of the Schengen Area, which makes it a frighteningly easy back door for Russian bad faith actors. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:59 - Sep 24 with 175 views | DJR |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. PART 2 on 10:00 - Sep 24 by Guthrum |
Trump just doesn't want the USA to spend any money on Ukraine*, but he's perfectly happy for others to do so - especially if it increases income for American arms manufacturers. Putin and Netanyahu aren't going to drop the Nobel Peace Prize into his lap, so fk 'em. Trump would rather be on the winning side if he can't end the war.
This does put Orban in a rather tricky position, if Trump is going to start pressuring him to give up Russian oil and gas. Hungary is a land-locked country (can't rapidly build LPG terminals like Germany did) and all the pipeline infrastructure comes from the east. With various mountain ranges, there are extremely limited routes to quickly and easily put new supply lines in. It's simply not an option to switch off useage on Trump timelines.
But Orban also relies on conservative US backing to maintain his struggle with the (relatively liberal) EU. Offending Trump would severely damage his position, leaving him entirely at the behest of Putin, who is weaker, has almost no political leverage in Europe and is likely to be more ruthless about demanding stuff in return. Not sure he fancies being Lukashenko.
* It's all needed to give tax cuts to the rich. |
He takes a different line in relation to Israel, but probably what this does show is that Trump et al see US strategic and political interests these days as focused particularly on the Middle East and the western Pacific, especially China.
As regards Orban, I took the view that (without criticising Orban specifically) he knows Orban won't stop importing oil, so effectively this means further US sanctions against Russia are off the table. [Post edited 24 Sep 11:17]
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