| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting 09:44 - Jun 21 with 6049 views | Macedonian_Gerrard |
Seen a lot of chatter in defence of Ashton/O'Neil online citing his 'record' especially at 'keeping up' Bournemouth & Wolves prior to his removal at both clubs, and thought it required a little bit of digging into......
At Bournemouth he was in charge from August 30th 2022 until his sacking on June 19th 2023 at the conclusion of the season; 292 days, 37 games in charge and securing 11 wins (in all competitions).
For that season they had the 3rd worst xG against at 65.9, below them only was Everton on 66.8 (conceding only 57 goals in reality thanks of course to Pickford, and Leeds on 67.5 who were ultimately relegated). They had the most amount of clearances per match at 25.6 indicating the backs to the wall/last gasp defending/low block style that characterises an O'Neil team, conceding the most set-piece goals at 21 (next highest Forest on 16), accumulated 50 'Big Chances' across the season (ranked 19th), generating 39.6 xG across the season - most importantly had an xG difference of -26.3 which was ranked 20th in the league that season.
The xG table had them rock bottom in 20th on just 34 points.
Of course as the old adage goes one might say this is merely 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' - though i think personally its important to point out that survival that season was not as a result of his coaching success or some sort of 'knowing how to survive' or 'relegation fighting' as is the narrative developing, but rather a statistical anomaly and it shouldnt be any wonder at the first opportunity the board chose to sack him.
Moving on to Wolves 494 days in charge between 28th November 2023 until dismissal on 15/12/2024.
For the full season of 2023/24 the xG table has Wolves in 17th and 41pts, success! Though this has to measured against the measly showings that season by Sheffield United (30pts), Luton (33pts), and Burnley (34pts). This is a Wolves team by the way that included Ait-Nouri, Nelson Semedo, Craig Dawson, Mario Lemina, Pedro Neto, Matheus Cunha, Pablo Sarabia, and Joao Gomes a reported squad cost of £340 million (for reference, ours was an estimated £126 million in 24/25 our relegation year).
Some further fun stats for that 23/24 season include Wolves having the 2nd highest fouls per game at 12.5, 2nd highest yellow card number at 100 (just below Chelsea's infamous 105), 19th in the touches in opposition box with 795 (only Sheff U, relegated, below with 694), 17th xG (only those below were the relegated sides).
I shan't bother to go into any detail about the ill-fated 24/25 season which is pretty well known to most given we occupied the same division, and the discussion on Wolves ill-discipline and generally awful performance's is regarded common knowledge. Of course interesting to note following the latest of his litany of head losses in interview he was sacked before Perreira came in and made them (at least for the rest of the season) look a totally different side staying up at a canter before the board chose to sell their 3 best players in Cunha, Ait-Nouri, and Strand-Larsen, 2 of whom being forwards who were replaced by Belgian League 'star' Arokadare (3 goals in 33, looking to be shipped off after a reported training ground bust up late season), and a panicked January move for Adam Armstrong.
All of this to be said, and it may be no shock, i am pretty downbeat on this appointment. I think the narrative about his ability to keep teams up completely misses the underlying statistics to those seasons, and skirts over some of the realities too given for example the woeful efforts from the promoted sides in attempting to stay up. I am stunned that this is the supposed result of Ashton's 'contingency planning' - an ex-budgie who he signed previously and has shown (imo) absolutely nothing thus far in his managerial career. We are a premier league arguably the best placed of the promoted 3 with a veritable war-chest behind us, was this job not appealing to the wider managerial market? did we even look?
Of course some will just tell me to suck it up and support the team/support the manager as it's ITFC but i would push back at that somewhat. We're not sycophants, the club/its decisions are not beyond reproach, we can criticise and state our opinions even if they are not blindly supportive and positive - thats the whole point of being a fan and if anything is important to do!! Goes without saying i hope and pray i'm wrong and it works out, but dear lord am i worried that this has done nothing to help our ambitions of remaining in the league next season.
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| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:15 - Jun 22 with 320 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:05 - Jun 22 by Radlett_blue |
So how did Sunderland do so well last season? I scoffed when they seemed to fluke their way up through the play-off after finishing 24pts outside the top 2 & losing their last 5 League games, during which they scored a total of 1 goal.
Obviously they recruited well, but is Le Bris an exceptional coach? He arrived with a poor record at Lorient & no experience of English football. |
The players they signed were just that good I think. Mukiele, Xhaka, Brobbey. Those 3 werent unknown gambles from abroad they were players who should have been unattainable for a newly promoted side with proper top flight pedigree.
Coupled with some riskier signings Roefs, Sadiki and Alderete (to an extent) who really landed. It was an incredible transfer window. |  |
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| Have to disagree Clive… on 13:45 - Jun 22 with 261 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Have to disagree Clive… on 12:07 - Jun 22 by unstableblue |
.. I do agree the transfer dealings will be crucial to survival
But you can’t disconnect that from the new manager
Firstly does O’Neil really create a draw for top players within the £200m spend - McKenna could attract, other candidates would attract
Also as the OP points out O’Neil was given a valuable and talented squad at Wolves and in that awful awful season (till his departure) where things literally fell apart - he had them on a relegation trajectory, that a better coach sorted
I hope I’m wrong but I think the OPs stats have real merit
And of course the fact he was replaced having valiantly kept Bournemouth is telling
BUT most importantly O’Neil has never executed a major transfer binge - which to your original point is what we need the new manager to drive |
I'm not sure McKenna was any more likely to attract players than O'Neil. Its the prospect of premier league football and the salary that do a lot of the heavy lifting, beyond that the chance to join a club and manager who got about 20 points last time out at this level probably isn't the easiest sell. With our Ipswich tinted specs on we might see it differently, but I'm not sure your average 25 year old footballer would.
O'Neil can point to signing Ouattara and Semenyo at Bournemouth, Andre at Wolves. He sold Nunes to Man City from Wolves, Neto to Chelsea, played his part in developing Ait-Nouri who went to City and Cunha who joined United. I love McKenna and wanted him to stay for many more years, he'll have a good career at the highest level, but bias aside he can't yet demonstrate a PL record like O'Neil can. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 14:06 - Jun 22 with 233 views | gringoblue |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:05 - Jun 22 by Radlett_blue |
So how did Sunderland do so well last season? I scoffed when they seemed to fluke their way up through the play-off after finishing 24pts outside the top 2 & losing their last 5 League games, during which they scored a total of 1 goal.
Obviously they recruited well, but is Le Bris an exceptional coach? He arrived with a poor record at Lorient & no experience of English football. |
For those who believe solely in XGD, Sunderland should have been relegated.
https://theanalyst.com/competi
Stats say Leeds were by far the better of the two promoted teams who stayed up. |  | | |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 14:15 - Jun 22 with 217 views | Churchman |
| Gary O'Neil - Mythbusting on 12:05 - Jun 22 by Radlett_blue |
So how did Sunderland do so well last season? I scoffed when they seemed to fluke their way up through the play-off after finishing 24pts outside the top 2 & losing their last 5 League games, during which they scored a total of 1 goal.
Obviously they recruited well, but is Le Bris an exceptional coach? He arrived with a poor record at Lorient & no experience of English football. |
I don’t think Le Bris is exceptional, but he’s clearly no mug. What he/ they did was sign up a core/spine of that team which was experienced and strong. They were fading at seasons end but still looked good in the few games I saw. Key was that the older players all stayed fit. Everything sort of fell their way which sometimes happens and they’ve deserved all the plaudits they’ve received.
There are things to learn from what they did well but it should be recognised they were the exception not the rule. |  | | |
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