| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions&quo 08:38 - Jul 29 with 852 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
against Russia:
From today's Guardian summary, about Ukrainian attacks on Wildberries logistics warehouses. The first paragraph states the surface level tactical goal:
"The Kremlin has acknowledged it may have to prop up online retailer Wildberries – which has lost 10% of its warehousing capacity and huge amounts of stock in Ukrainian drone attacks. Kyiv has said its forces are attacking “Russia’s Amazon” because of its role in supplying Moscow’s army. The Kremlin acknowledged the government had discussed possible support for Wildberries. A senior industry source told Reuters that Wildberries was in a difficult situation and might have to seek government support, most likely through state-controlled banks, in order to maintain operations."
The Ukrainian Government has consistently stated that Wildberries is a legitimate target because it supplies things like fibre optic cable and body armour to the front.
But the second paragraph contains a quote from a leading figure in the Ukrainian defence sector:
"An executive at Ukraine’s leading arms producer Fire Point has said Wildberries is being targeted by Ukraine partly because of its partnership with state-controlled bank VTB. Denys Shtilerman, Fire Point’s co-founder and chief designer, in an interview posted on 27 July with the Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, described Wildberries as the largest borrower in Russia and said its demise would lead to the collapse of a large number of banks, including VTB. Wildberries and its rival Ozon are central to the Russian government’s plans to spur economic growth as Moscow faces mounting budget pressures from increased military spending and a broader economic slowdown."
He may be deliberately overstating, in order to provoke panic amongst Russian consumers which could lead to a run on the banks which will precipitate things, but it just shows the levels being played here.
Ukraine are showing a capacity for unorthodox thinking and asymmetric warfare which rivals Churchill's trust in SOE, LRDG (SAS), Military intelligence operations like Mincemeat, and innovative inventors like Barnes Wallis etc. |  | | |  |
| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 08:55 - Jul 29 with 779 views | Steve_M |
Just been reading in the FT that the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are stepping up too and have evolved to take plants offline for longer periods rather than just being a nuisance.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ca |  |
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| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 10:35 - Jul 29 with 608 views | Guthrum |
Collapsing Russia's economy has always been one of Ukraine's best hopes for victory. International sanctions have proven less than effective - or too slow acting - on their own. Carefully targeted long-range strikes on infrastructure at least holds out the promise of tipping that process over the edge.
Russia cannot export oil to China and India if it no longer has sufficient refining capacity for its own needs. Ruining the state banking sector by damaging their largest assets will eat up finances which could otherwise be used on the war.
After all, the economic strain of keeping up the arms race (plus a grossly inefficient agricultural sector necessitating expensive grain imports) was a major factor in the fall of the Soviet Union. |  |
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| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 11:00 - Jul 29 with 556 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 10:35 - Jul 29 by Guthrum |
Collapsing Russia's economy has always been one of Ukraine's best hopes for victory. International sanctions have proven less than effective - or too slow acting - on their own. Carefully targeted long-range strikes on infrastructure at least holds out the promise of tipping that process over the edge.
Russia cannot export oil to China and India if it no longer has sufficient refining capacity for its own needs. Ruining the state banking sector by damaging their largest assets will eat up finances which could otherwise be used on the war.
After all, the economic strain of keeping up the arms race (plus a grossly inefficient agricultural sector necessitating expensive grain imports) was a major factor in the fall of the Soviet Union. |
On top of all that:
It is heading towards harvest season in the Russian grain belt, and currently there are farmers who don't know whether there is going to be any diesel for their tractors and combine harvesters.
Russia is heading for food shortages.
History tells us that leaders who take Russia into unpopular wars that cause food shortages are on borrowed time. | | | |
| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 15:33 - Jul 29 with 372 views | Kropotkin123 |
It is definitely a dual target, and Ukraine is choosing to hit dual targets. Ukraine need to put pressure on Russian people before Russian "elections". As mobilization of 500,000 Russians is highly likely after then.
Oil was one dual target, it impacts Russians daily lives. Later it might impact food. Wildberries, as you say, impacts the Russian economy due to the debt leveraged to buy stock, which relies on continuous movement for the financial model to continue. Remove the stock and there is no way to rebuild, and that debt cannot be serviced. As people default on that debt the banks are exposed. If they don't default, then what purchasing power do they have. Russians will have less money to spend and the Government doesn't exactly have the economic power to stimulate the economy.
Those with stock insurance have been showing $150 payments, for $100,000s of stock loss. |  |
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| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 15:43 - Jul 29 with 349 views | Kropotkin123 |
| An interesting strategic development in Ukrainian "long range sanctions& on 10:35 - Jul 29 by Guthrum |
Collapsing Russia's economy has always been one of Ukraine's best hopes for victory. International sanctions have proven less than effective - or too slow acting - on their own. Carefully targeted long-range strikes on infrastructure at least holds out the promise of tipping that process over the edge.
Russia cannot export oil to China and India if it no longer has sufficient refining capacity for its own needs. Ruining the state banking sector by damaging their largest assets will eat up finances which could otherwise be used on the war.
After all, the economic strain of keeping up the arms race (plus a grossly inefficient agricultural sector necessitating expensive grain imports) was a major factor in the fall of the Soviet Union. |
Sanctions, while not perfect, have been hugely effective. They've taken billions out of the Russian war effort that would have been spent on killing Ukrainians, scaling faster. Imagine what ballistic attack right now would look like if they had billions more behind them.
Ukraine's strikes right now are so effective because they have the ability to do it (questionavle whether they would without sanctions). But you are right, this has a greater likelihood of ending the war verses the reminiscing returns of sanctions.
Note, there is an aluminium producing plant that supplies Russia, in Ireland. Stopping that would be a huge blow to Russia. But the Irish are pretending they don't see it. Shame on them, shame on Europe for backing them because it will impact Europe too. | |
| Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top. | | Poll: | Would you rather | | Blog: | Round Four: Eagle |
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