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Round Four: Eagle
Written by Kropotkin123 on Monday, 14th Oct 2019 16:10

Introduction And Recap

A target of seven points from three games became a target of four points from two games. This is because our game against Wycombe was called off due to international call-ups.

The grouping started off with a comfortable 4-1 win over Tranmere, who later showed they are no mugs by winning 1-0 away to promotion rivals Coventry.

Once again Ipswich went under par, this time was thanks to rocking-up to the best Fleetwood side in their history and taking all three points back to Portman Road. This was despite missing a penalty and having James Wilson sent off against the then-third-placed side.

Sadly, against Tranmere Ipswich conceded, missing out on a club record of six league clean sheets in a row. But another against Fleetwood starts the tally again and moves us up to seven cleansheets from 11 games.

Victory over Fleetwood also meant Ipswich have taken 89% of their possible away points. This is particularly impressive as Ipswich have only dropped points to third-placed Peterborough on their travels.

Round Five Projection: Seven Points, Two Wins, One Draw

First up is Accrington Stanley. We are projected to get three points. When people say there are no easy games and we have no right to win they are talking about games like this. Four of the top six have played Accrington and only one have got three points.

Recently eighth-placed Oxford have been getting a lot of praise too. They could only manage a draw. Accrington lost three of their first four games, but have performed much better since - losing two of their last eight.

Accrington have not failed to score at home, scoring an above league average of 1.6 a game. Accrington generally don't perform well in the first half. At 46-60 mins they are at their most prolific.

I think that Accrington having scored twice as many goals in the second half as they have the first indicates a lack of due care by teams thinking they have already won.

Accrington's best-rated players are Sam Finley (7.08), Jordan Clark (7.00) and 22-year-old Colby Bishop (6.92). Bishop is their top scorer with four, followed by Clark and Dion Charles with three a piece. It's worth noting that Charles has started fewer.

Next up we have Rotherham, who are projected to steal a point from Portman Road. Rotherham were relegated alongside Ipswich and Bolton. Being a 'yo-yo' club they know what it takes to get out of the division and shouldn't be taken lightly.

Currently sitting in 10th, Rotherham are three points and a game in hand behind third-placed Peterborough. Recently they stuffed Coventry 4-0, which despite the horrific defending on show, shouldn't be overlooked.

Rotherham are a bit like us in many ways. They have the league's third-best defence, having conceded ten goals. They are the fourth-best away side, having picked up 10 points on their travels.

Rotherham have scored three fewer goals than Ipswich, putting them sixth in offence. We will play a side that is tough to break down and who will likely pose a threat to our goal.

Fifty-six per cent of Rotherham's points have come from away games. They have also won 50% of these games. Their away goals per game is 1.67, which is way above the 1.05 league average.

Rotherham's best players this season have been defender Michael Ihiekwe (7.30), 20-year-old attacking midfielder Jack Hastie (7.29) and defender Clark Robinson (7.23).

Hastie has scored three goals from seven games, putting him as the joint-top scorer along with Freddie Ladapo and Michael Smith. Robinson has got a couple of goals, suggesting he is an aerial threat from set plays.

Completing our round of three is Southend, who have been in dreadful form. So far they are averaging 0.17 points per game, with only a sole point at home. This did come against promotion rivals Fleetwood.

Whilst there are no easy games, Southend have no redeeming statistics. To not pick up all three points against the team with the worst home record, most goals against and most defeats would be a big shock.

Stephen Humpreys is Southend's standout performer. The 22-year-old has an average rating of 6.93 and five goals so far. Sam Many on seems to be Southend main creative outlet, with three assists, Southend's highest passing accuracy and a 6.58 rating.

Par Table
Ipswich, 27, -7
Wycombe, 23, +5
Peterborough, 21, -2
Bristol Rovers, 21, +6
Fleetwood, 20, +2
Blackpool, 20, +9

Ipswich made further progress with a great result against Fleetwood to move to seven under par. Ipswich have now won four in a row and have lost in 11 games.

Wycombe remain second, but make no dent on their par score.

Peterborough and Bristol Rovers both enter the par table for the first time this season. Peterborough underline many people's opinion that they are most likely to be promoted alongside Ipswich.

Bristol Rovers, on the other hand, suggest they are just picking up points against weaker opposition.

Fleetwood remained two over par and would probably be disappointed not to have had a crack at managerless Sunderland.

Blackpool continue their dreadful par score and are fortunate to remain in the top six for another round.

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Side Note For Newcomers
Round One: Establishes why I did this, why 90 points is the target, how I have modelled the fixtures and what par is based on. There are also two nice and related videos in response.




Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.

ElephantintheRoom added 10:39 - Oct 17
I'm struggling with the golf scores at this stage of the season. Town were one of two promotion certs according to the bookies (2/1? pre-season) whilst Wycombe were one of the relegation favourites with Bolton and Bury gone before a ball was kicked. So according to that Town are more or less at par whilst Wycombe, for now, are exceeding expectations by a country mile. Not sure about the well trodden cliché of 'no easy games' either. There are quite a few of them in this division.... and Town have benefitted from the easiest - a mild jog against Bolton's demoralized youth team.
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Kropotkin123 added 11:45 - Oct 20
No Easy Games
Against the two 'easier' teams in this round the projection is to win. However, whilst we may be dispatching 'easier' teams at the moment, our promotion rivals aren't. A 4-1 win against Tranmere was a 2-2 draw for Peterborough and a 1-0 loss for Coventry.

Accrington drew with Oxford, Blackpool and Wycombe. Again, promotion rivals drop points at these teams. They are not as easy as you wish for our rivals.

If we turn out to walk the division then great. But that will be because we are too good for the division. This piece is designed to project 90 points, not the 113 points form we are currently in.

Par
If you look at this stage of the season across previous seasons teams rise and fall dramatically. The teams are still really bunched and there is nothing to suggest this won't happen again. I will change par to the league table after half a season.
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