|If Statistics Won Games: Fulham 0-1 Ipswich|
Written by Kropotkin123 on Saturday, 14th Feb 2015 08:29
[i]If Statistics Won Games[/i] returns at this early hour to bring you good news! There’s no need to continue to be leptochrous, our bad run is officially over!
[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]
Ipswich 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday
Success rate: 0%
Conclusion: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Being wrong is great sometimes!
[b]The Wider Context[/b]
I waited as long as possible, but unfortunately there has been no update on the probabilities. A win, needless to say, was good for our chances of promotion!
I think the main thing to re-illustrate is that statistically speaking, our poor form has officially come to an end. This is the third time we have had a run of five poor games. In the first spell we took five points from five games. In the second spell we took four points from five games. And from our latest poor spell we took four points from five games.
We have lost two away games in a row, and to lose three would be in uncharted terrain. I don’t expect that happen. In fact form insists we should win this one. Off the back of each run of poor form, we have won at least the next three games.
I must admit, I was and still am ill. I consequently did not go to the match against Sheff Wed. But from the highlights we seem to be much more assured on the ball and much more purposeful in the final third. Sears and Murphy seemed to be combining well, and from the chances we could easily have won by more. So I think the statistics are likely to follow the ebb and flow of the season.
Our opponents Fulham are 18th in the table and we should win if we show the same attacking intent. They are on a winless streak of three games, which is someway off their dreadful start, which saw them collect one point from eight games. Poor form truly is relative. Fulham do have quite a poor record against top-six opposition, losing all six games so far. So the circa 4,000 fans should be in store for a good one.
Fulham have conceded in their last eight games, and are 23rd in the defensive table, having let in 53 goals. This spectacularly poor record is assisted by their offensive performance. They have scored 43 goals, which is five shy of us.
At home Fulham fare better, and are placed 12th in the table. But if the top two is still considered a realistic target amongst the players, as Murphy indicates, this is the sort of game we need to win.
For perspective, at the moment the home and away tables are equal, with each team having played 15 games. We sit top of the home table, two points clear of Derby. But away from home we are ninth, nine points, seven points and six points behind Bournemouth, Middlesbrough and Derby respectively.
Fulham’s most common result at home is a 1-0 loss. This has occurred 20% of the time. Fulham have not drawn 0-0 at home this season, and when they have failed to score, they have always failed to win. If Fulham score at home, they do not lose! So it seems from all the form that if we can stop them from scoring, we will get our chances, and we will win the game. I am torn between a 2-0 Ipswich win and a 1-0 Ipswich win. But 1-0 seems to have more going for it.
Fulham are strong on through balls, so hopefully after three recent mix-ups in defence, we can sort out the communication between the defence and the goalkeeper. I do think the mistake against Southampton kick-started a fear between defence and goalkeeper, which just needs to be forgotten really.
Fulham are statistically weak at pretty much every defensive situation you can imagine, and many you didn’t even realise existed. So if we do something (!), we should get our goal. Statistics say we are most likely to get a goal from set-pieces.
Fulham seem to be somewhere between a passing side and a direct side. They make 464 passes to our 409. 370 of their passes are short, in contrast to 294 of ours. They certainly attempt to play the ball, but don’t really dominate the game. They possession is 51%, in contrast to our 49%. As with all teams, Fulham are more successful at passing accurately than us. They have a 78% success rate, compared to our 65%.
Another low-scoring prediction makes for a pretty straightforward conclusion. We are most likely to score between 16-30mins. However Fulham are most likely to concede between 0-15mins. I think Fulham’s poor opening play holds enough sway to dictate we will score between 0-15mins from an early set-piece or cross.
Perhaps this will be 2-0 after all, I don’t believe we won’t add to a 15min opener!
Statistically speaking Fulham’s star player is Lasse Vigen Christensen. The 20-year-old Danish central midfielder has scored five goals and created seven goals. He has an 81.9% pass success rate and is also strong at tackling and good at dribbling.
Teddy Bishop would be our closest player to Christensen. Teddy is two years younger and the differences are evident. Bishop has scored one goal this season, which seems to be more down to his lack of physicality, than positioning, accuracy and ability.
Christensen also puts in more tackles, interceptions and clearances than Bishop. The more I view Christensen, the more he seems like a McCarthy type of player. An all-rounder that works hard, but technically sound, and good going forward.
Fulham 0-1 Ipswich
Ipswich to score between 0-15mins
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