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If Stats Won Games: Brentford 2-1 Ipswich
Written by Kropotkin123 on Tuesday, 23rd Dec 2014 17:31

Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Traitor!! Splitter!!! It’s the latest instalment of If Stats Won Games

[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]

Ipswich 2-1 Middlesbrough: Nearly! Incorrect.

Ipswich score two against the best defence and the best away team in the division: Correct!

Murphy to score: Correct

Ipswich score between 31-45mins: Correct

Ipswich score between 76-90mins: Incorrect

Middlesbrough score between 76-90mins: Incorrect

Success rate: 50%

Conclusion: “Bounce in a minute, I’m gonna bounce in a minute!”

[b]Form[/b]

First of all, I’m sorry. Like every other hard-working, honest and committed Ipswich fan, I believe we will win every single game (don’t look back through my comments, the truth isn’t always important when setting a scene). It doesn’t matter how much I try and convince myself otherwise, from a form perspective, we will lose!

I know it isn’t in-keeping with the Christmas spirit, but this Brentford side only have a worse home record than Ipswich, and Ipswich are a different class! Like Ipswich, Brentford have only lost one home game this season, and by coincidence, it was also to an over-rated team, four points adrift of the play-offs, that smelt of mustard. (That was for tractorgrl).

Don’t get me wrong, I think Bournemouth are better, and I predicted a 2-1 win. I think Middlesbrough are better, and I predicted a 2-1 win. However, whether I think a team is better or not makes no difference to statistics. Statistics don’t care for my opinion, they force me to accept that Brentford deserve to be in their position and are most likely to beat us.

The first five games of the season have little bearing on how a team will fair in the next 41 games. So our away loss to Reading says a lot less than our away loss to Cardiff. Cardiff are the fourth best home team in the league, we had an off day there, and we were dispatched.

Our first unbeaten run lasted eight games until Cardiff and our current unbeaten run lasted nine games prior to Brentford. From a timing perspective, we are due an off game, against a top home team, in which the opposition take advantage.

Brentford’s current form is excellent. In fact, in the last six matches Brentford are top, and Ipswich are second. In the last ten games Brentford are second and Ipswich are third. Missing out August, Ipswich are first and Brentford are fourth. Whereas we are unbeaten in nine games, Brentford have won seven of their last eight games. These games have included Derby (fifth), Blackburn (eighth), Forest (ninth) and Cardiff (at Cardiff!).

At home, Brentford have won 64% of their games, losing a mere 9%. They have scored 21 goals, and have conceded 11. Eleven is relatively high, an average of one per game. They have failed to score in 18% of their home games, and haven’t lost in seven home games.

Maybe I am building up their home form too much, overtly concentrating on their recent run. Despite their run, they have only won 55% of games. We’re on 50% and our best winning run like theirs is five wins in six games (divided by a draw).

Brentford only have us left to play in the top seven, and have lost all bar one of those (the win coming against Derby). It’s worth noting that Brentford played Derby in their last nine games, and Derby would be tenth, if we took a league table over that period.

[b]Playing Style[/b]

The way Brentford play does give me some cause for optimism, but this is the first time I have sought to expand the statistics to the style of play we should expect to receive from our opponents. Consequently, I won’t be using it as a factor in my decision. I’ll leaving it a week to first observe the impact, before deciding how to utilise it.

Statistically speaking, Brentford are effective on the counter-attack, effective on the wings and effective at utilising the through-ball. They are vulnerable in aerial battles, vulnerable when defending counter attacks and vulnerable when defending down the wings. To nullify their play we should set ourselves up to play for a draw. We must keep our shape at all costs, and hit the on the counter-attack, down the wings.

In Brentford’s last six games, 44% of their play has come down the right-hand side, 11% above a balanced style of play. Sometimes up to 50% of their play can come from down the right flank. Very little comes down the left flank, with the centre being the next most tried area. Brentford play a lot of short passes, often making 100-200 more than their opponents. This translates into a lot of possession-based football, before opting for the right-wing or centre.

Our side has usually dealt with possession based football well. So we shouldn’t really fear the fact Brentford have had 56.2% of the possession in their last six games, with a high of 64%. We should take heart that Huddersfield beat them, whilst only keeping 41% of the play.

We haven’t got the fastest of central defenders, and Brentford do favour a through ball. 62.5% of their chances come from the middle, after their build-up play favouring the right side. They have a high of 88% of their shots, coming from the middle.

We are going to have to try and stamp this side of their game out by not over-committing men, and exposing ourselves. Our midfielders will have to press them early on to break up their play. This is something we are well drilled on.

I definitely feel this is a game we should set out to draw, as we are far more likely to win, and far less likely to lose, as a consequence. If I was counting this section, I would go for a 1-1 draw, but I am not. I therefore predict a 2-1 loss, but hope this new insight will prove me wrong, and gives more added value to the blog.

[b]Timings[/b]

After reading about their style of play, Brentford’s goalscoring times should be of no surprise. Counter-attacking play, that is reliant on through-balls, manifests into nine goals scored in the last 15 mins of the game. Defenders tire, teams over-commit, it is a recipe for a Brentford goal. If it is level after 75 mins, we should shut-up shop and see the game out. It would be the most effective approach.

For context, our most likely time to score at home consists of a mere five goals, and the next nearest to Brentford in the last 15 mins is two goals behind on seven. Brentford, unsurprisingly, have score twice as many goals in the second half, at home, than they have in the first half.

It seems, amongst supporters, that there is a perception that we concede late on in the game. I think this comes from the disproportionate home timings record. But away from home we are pretty solid in the last 15 mins. Only twice away from home have we conceded in the last 15 mins, which is the joint-third best in the league, some way behind Fulham’s 11, so we are well equipped and positioned to shut the game out, if need be.

Whilst Brentford are most likely to score in between 46-60 mins and 76-90 mins, we are most likely to score between 61-75 mins. Despite the stats telling me we will lose, I cannot see us throwing away a 1-1 draw with 15 mins to go, unless we succumb to a cacoethes to get forward and find a late winner, I think we are far more likely to draw. But I reluctantly stick to the 2-1 prediction.

I stuck to this for the same conviction that said that we would beat Boro, despite their great away record. If we don’t lose, I believe this will be one of our most accomplished performances, as it would mean we would be breaking up a threatening team, and defying the statistics. I’m really looking forward to see if we will rise to the challenge.

[b]In Summary[/b]

Brentford 2-1 Ipswich

Brentford to score between 46-60mins

Ipswich to score between 61-75mins

Brentford to score between 76-90mins

NB: A big thanks to CherryHintonBlue, who influenced the inclusion of the playing style section! Please ask CherryHintonBlueJNR for my forgiveness, that I don’t produce a Latin version!!




Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.

Kropotkin123 added 17:49 - Dec 23
Personally, I think the writer should be ashamed! No one wants to read that much about a potential loss. If I see him about, I'll kick him in the shins!

COYB!!!
1

Letchworth_Blue added 19:01 - Dec 23
Thankfully you are rarely more than 50% correct, therefore I'm not gonna get too upset about the prediction! ;-)
2

GeoffSentence added 19:25 - Dec 23
Si Stats Games Won: 2-1 Brentford Ipswich
written by Kropotkin123 Tuesday, 23 Oct MMXIV 17:31
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Proditor !! Splitter !!! Suus 'tardus pensionem Si Stats Games Won

Last Match PRAEDICTUM

2-1 Ipswich Middlesbrough: ferme! Non recta.

Duo score optima defensio contra Ipswich et optimum quadrigis in a divisione: Bene!

Murphy ustulo: Correct

Inter Ipswich 31-45mins score: Correct

Inter Ipswich 76-90mins score: Incorrect

Inter Middlesbrough 76-90mins score: Incorrect

Success rate:% L

Quod: "REPENTE minutum, Sum amet minuto REPENTE!"

Form

Primum, me paenitet. Quemadmodum omnibus aliis industrios, honestum et commisit Gipeswyche fan-credo vincere singulis venatus (non respiciunt mea, dicit, non est semper verum esse cum occasus scaena). Nec refert, quantum ipse convincit operam ne ex parte formae, non perdet;

Vere scio quod non est conveniens ad Nativitatis, in spiritu, sed solum esta available in aliqua parte Brentford peius quam domum record Ipswich, et Ipswich sunt in alio genere! Sicut Ipswiche Brentford domum ludum hoc uno tantum tempore accidit, etiam aliquantum ad aestimavit dolor ludi ter quatuor hypocritæ, quia redoluit sinapi. (Erat enim tractorgrl).

Nec mihi fas puto Bournemouth meliora et praedixi 2-1 miseránte. Puto melius Middlesbrough sunt, et Praedicta 2-1 miseránte. Sed melius non puto perinde est, utrum sit amet arcu. Tu enim statistics non recenseo, accipere et invitum me in gradu et merito Brentford Maxime autem et nos percutere.

Primus agon modicum tempus pertinet perpendat quomodo a team XLI pulcher in altera ludos. Ita hoc loco noster est cuius crudelitas redundat Reading multus est ad Cardiff nostra minor est iactura. Quartus Caesar optimus esse domum quadrigis in foedus, obstabat Habuimus hodie, et usquam expediantur.

Ad primum quod duravit usque Cardiff et octo ludos invicto run nostri nunc duravit novem invicto run ludos ad Brentford prior. Ex contextu a, leo, an off per ludum nos sunt, a summo ad domum team, in oppositione quae est utilitas.

Brentford hodiernus forma optima est. In facto, in sex ultimis Brentford matches sunt desuper, et secundus Ipswich sunt. In decem secunda vel tertia Gipeswyche Brentford ludos. Absentis ex August, Ipswich sunt prima et quarta Brentford sunt. Cum invictus sunt novem ludos Brentford ultimum octo vicisse septem ludos. Hos autem ludos includitur Have Derby (V), Blackburn (octavus), Forest (IX) et Caesar (ad Cardiff!).

Domi, si vicissem Brentford LXIV% of eorum ludorum, amissis solam IX%. They have ustulo metas XXI, 11. et concessit Have relativamente Undecim est princeps, per unum an average of venatus. XVIII% defecerunt score in domo sua ludis ludos domi et in septima non perdidi.

Forsitan ego quoque aedifico mansionem forma namque, cum recenti facto impetu. Quamquam currere habent parta LV% ludos. L%, et nos in simili cum illis est, nostrum optimus, blandeque run quinque in sex ludos uincit (divisum a ducatur).

Have Brentford reliquit nobis solum ad ludere in vertice septem, et elanguerunt omnes unum bar EORUM (venientem in miseránte Contra Derby). Est attendendum quod in ultima Derby Brentford lusit novem ludos, villae, decimus foret, si foedus tulit super mensa tempus.

ludens Style

Quomodo fabula Brentford mihi dedit causam spe, sed ita quaeram primum ludi genus ad ampliare mutant ab adversariis recibir expectamus. Ergo non potest uti eo ut me sermo ipsius. Ego relicta septimanam primus impetus observare, uti altitudo decernebat.

Statistically loquendi, in Brentford vim inferre, et efficax per pilam Utilising alis effectivum. Vulnerabiles sunt in proeliis sicut aereum, vulnerari, et contra defendere, et percusserit eam vulnerable cum defendere usque ad latera disponit. Si nos fiamus Septembris Tolli ludo ludere ducatur. Omnino necesse est ut ad speciem et ad ictus est inferre, usque ad latera disponit.

In ultimo Brentford sex ludos ludere XLIV% sui descendit in dextris, supra XI% ludi genus temperata. Interdum usque ad L% of ludo comedat ex dextro latere. Parum descendit laevo foco altera parte maxime probatur. Brentford amet, consectetuer faucibus brevis, ut saepe plus quam 100-200 eorum quidquam contingeret. Text in possessionem eget mattis eu, ante vel bene pro dextro cornu centrum.

Vulgo dicitur de possessione ex parte nostra bene felis. Itaque vere shouldnt eo timentibus Brentford possessionis 56,2% habuisse inter ultimos sex ludos, cum ex alto LXIV%. Dicendum, quod Cor Huddersfield percutere retentis tantum XLI% dum prodeunt.

Nos non habent ieiunas propugnatoribus in medio esse, et miserere Brentford facere a pila-per. 62.5% sui casus quod ex media iuxta constructum fabula favens dextram. LXXXVIII% de excelso praesto habent ictus, e medio.

Imus ad experiri ludum et per summas cis superflue commendans, et ipsi exponebant. Mane Midfielders nostrum conteri oportet arguit ludo. Id quod in bene EXERCITUS.

Sed si hoc est quod ipsum sentire certo sum Septembris extrahere, ut multo facilius obtinere, et longe minus motum amittere, et ex consequenti. XXIX Si pensantem esta iturum ad 1-1 ducatur, sed non ego. Propter quod praedicere 2-1 damnum, sed spes est haec nova quae docti probare mihi iniuriam, et magis additur dat valorem ad blog.

timings

Post eorum lectis stilo ludi, Brentford goalscoring temporibus Sit scriptor de nilo quae admiratio. Ludere Counter-oppugnare, quod est fidens, in per-balls, manifestat in Laceratum novem metas in ultimum XV mins in venatus. Defensores trahere, super-Partes committere, id est recipe propterea quod Johannem Mendis a metam. Si planum mins post LXXV debemus claudere ludum-tabernam et egrediens. Maxime aditus esset.

Nam in loco, ad tempus ad nostrum maxime consistit ex meris domi ustulo quinque metas, et ad proxima sequenti Brentford XV mins in ultimo est post septem metas in duo. Brentfordiae unsurprisingly, totidem bis metas ustulo in medium, quae domi sunt, quam in prima parte.

Videtur, inter fautores, quod nos tarda est, sensum in prima tabula. Puto ex parilitate esta timings domum record. Nos autem domi satis firma XV mins in novissimo. Bis tantum conceditur domi sumus XV mins in ultimo, qui est communis tertia optimum in foedus, XI de cancellaria post quodammodo ea, quae semel et instructissimus claudere ipsum, si opus fuerit.

Dum Brentford sunt verisimile ad ustulo in mins inter 46-60 et 76-90 mins, inter nos sunt maxime ad score 61-75 mins. Quamquam narras potenti sua amiserunt, nec nostra considerat 1-1 ducatur cum XV mins omittit ire nisi cacoethes succumbat ad progressum et invenietis nuper victor Puto igitur probabilius haurire . 2-1 sed ego invitus haereat ad praedictionem.

Haerebam ad hoc quod nos ad verberat Boro quod eadem conscientia, tametsi magna a record. Si non penitus, opinor, erit in nobis eruditissima esta operas exigere, ut sit sensus vasis minaci quadrigis, et ineffabile mutant. Et si quidem expectabant surgemus ad impugnatio.

In Summary

2-1 Brentford Ipswich

Inter Brentford ustulo 46-60mins

Inter Ipswich ustulo 61-75mins

1

ericclacton added 19:46 - Dec 23
Very entertaining read, clever, I like the way your mind works.
I get the feeling we will slip up friday.
roll on a week tonight.
1

tractorgrl added 19:55 - Dec 23
Great blog, thanks for not making me ill with the 'n' word, town win for me! P.s Geoff very good but please get out more over Christmas! (onlyjoking)
2

Kropotkin123 added 20:29 - Dec 23
Ha ha, amazing! Thanks Geoff!

Thanks for the kind comments, despite the prediction.
1

Hiltzkooler added 21:19 - Dec 23
Kropotkin, excellent read, really enjoyed it as always....I was pessimistic ahead of the Boro match, based on subjective viewpoints....but one point that really strikes me is how McCarthy sets the team up to dominate the opposition, and it is how well the opposition copes with that....that's where the stats come in for me when considering Brentford...Brentford have strengths to nullify Towns ability to dominate a game...I believe a very close game which if Town win says a lot, especially ahead of the Derby match....
2

Palestine added 13:08 - Dec 24
Wow, what an amazing blog! Never seen anything like it!
It does sound like a narrow defeat or a battling draw are the most likely options....
From your analysis we now know that a win would be an amazing result! You never know...

One question, if they are so dominant and threatening down the right wing, should we play Parr or recall Mings? Mings faster but Parr a more solid defender. Thoughts?

I think I will give up a free ticket for Oxford United to stay at home and watch Bentford v Ipswich on the laptop...! Naughty.
1

Kropotkin123 added 16:04 - Dec 24
I think Parr would be more suited to the game, if we intend to sit back. Although overall I don't think there is a question as to whether Mings is the better player or not.

Statistics show that Mings plays a lot of key passes and has great vision... but he lacks the concentration Parr has.
1
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