|If Statistics Won Games: Brighton 1-2 Ipswich|
Written by Kropotkin123 on Monday, 19th Jan 2015 20:35
Tired, ill and worse for wear, [i]If Statistics Won Games[/i] returns for this bite-sized edition that feels as packed out as an Ipswich bench!
[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]
Millwall 0-2 Ipswich: Incorrect
Ipswich to score between 16-30mins: Missed by two minutes
Ipswich to score between 61-75mins: Missed by two minutes, again.
Ipswich to win by two goals: Correct
Success rate: 25%
I still get that Wigan seat, right?
After smashing it against Millwall, Ipswich are on the road again against bottom-six opposition. This week’s opponents are statistically better than Millwall and it would consequently be a surprise to see them relegated.
Despite that, they are 19th for a reason, and there is very little to give the cause for hope approaching this fixture. Brighton are on a run of five home games without a win, having lost three of those fixtures. Brighton’s home form is so bad in fact that they have picked up two more points on their travels than they have at home.
To further underline their poor home form, Brighton have won a mere 15% of their games at the Amex. Their biggest problem is that they give themselves no guarantee of victory if they take the lead. With an average of 1.2 points when they have taken the lead at home, Brighton are the worst team in the division for holding onto to a winning position.
Brighton have conceded a goal in 85% of their home games and have conceded in all of their last five home matches. Despite this, the Seagulls are not terrible in defence. They currently sit 10th in the defensive table, having conceded 33 goals. For context, this is 11 fewer than Millwall, their relegation rivals. Unsurprisingly then, they do not perform well in the offensive table, residing in 17th.
Brighton have not beaten a team in the top 13 and have lost every game to the top five teams. Having continued to beat every team in the bottom six, Ipswich are clear favourites to win this one. It was an anomaly for us to not score exactly two goals, so we are statistically nailed on to win this one 2-0 or 2-1.
With our illness-hit squad and having played a lot of games in quick succession, this prediction will err on the side of caution, and just predict a 2-1 win. If correct, this result would extend our away record to seven games without loss, and would potentially move us up to second in the away table.
Brighton attempt to play football on the ground and from the back. As a result, they make 491 passes per game, compared to Ipswich’s 402. Brighton have an 80% pass success rate, compared to Ipswich’s 66%.
Brighton will try and dominate possession. Despite their poor league position, Brighton have an average of 53% of the possession, compared to Ipswich’s 47%. For all Brighton’s possession and their concentration on short passes, their biggest weakness is scoring from the chances they create. Whether this is because they create naff chances or their strikers squander good opportunities, we’ll have to see.
Ipswich are comfortable with Brighton’s style of play, as Town like to control the game in the opposition's half, whilst Brighton like to retain their possession in their own half. Ipswich are most likely to score against Brighton from play starting on the wing.
Despite all the early criticisms against Ipswich this season, the Blues are statistically classified as a non-aggressive team. For all their concentration on retaining the ball, Brighton are classified as an aggressive side. Statistically teams try to match Brighton’s aggression.
With an impressive defensive record, for a relegation threatened team, Brighton’s best player is Lewis Dunk. However, as he got sent off last week, we face our opposition on an easier footing, for the second time in as many games.
Dunk’s defensive partner, Gordon Greer, is Brighton’s second best player. Greer’s position in the team is most akin to his Scotland international team-mate Christophe Berra, who will be our primary comparison. Greer, at 34, is five years older than Berra, and 2cm taller.
Greer likes to pass the ball out from the back, rather than get rid of it, and as a consequence he has a pass completion rate of 82% compared to Berra’s 62%. He has two goals to his name, in contrast to Berra’s five. The weakest area of his game is his ability in aerial duels, which may prove costly with a weakened backline.
Greer has made 1.7 tackles, 3.2 interceptions and 8.2 clearances per game, compared to Berra’s 1.6 tackles, 2.7 interceptions and 11.4 clearances per game. The high number of comparative clearances, coupled with Tommy’s 8.7 clearances, in contrast to Dunk’s 5.2 clearances, suggest that Town favour a much more proactive defensive system, compared to Brighton’s rather reactionary system.
Ipswich are currently the only team that has scored more goals than they have conceded in every 15min section. Away from home though we still haven’t scored between 31-45mins. We are still most likely to score between 16-30mins, and Brighton are also most likely to concede at this point.
Our second most likely time to score is between 0-15mins, where Brighton are weak, and Noel Hunt is strong! Daryl Murphy is now long overdue a goal, so it is highly likely he will get on the score sheet against Brighton
We are most likely to concede between 76-90mins away from home, whereas Brighton are most likely to score between 16-30mins. However as there I only one goal separating that and their second most likely – 76-90mins – this is their most likely timing.
Brighton 1-2 Ipswich
Ipswich to score between 0-15mins
Ipswich to score between 16-30mins
Brighton to score between 76-90mins
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