|If Statistics Won Games: Ipswich 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday|
Written by Kropotkin123 on Monday, 9th Feb 2015 14:19
After Saturday’s facinorous result, [i]If Statistics Won Games[/i] fails to bring back the positivity with a bleak prediction.
[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]
Rotherham 2-0 Ipswich: Incorrect
Success rate: 0%
Conclusion: Where is that silver lining?
[b]The Wider Context[/b]
It’s hard to put into words how bad that loss was for our chances of success this season, but don’t worry, I have the numbers to take their place.
As a result of our 2-0 loss, our chance of promotion fell 12%. This week’s figure was only beaten by Rotherham’s 12.7% reduction in chance of playing in League One next season. Our chance of finishing in the play-offs has now fallen to 80%.
There are three distinct classes of play-off candidates now. The first includes Bournemouth, Derby and Middlesbrough, who are all competing for the top two spots. They have shaken off their Christmas results and are now back on track.
Bournemouth have a 63% chance of automatic promotion, Derby have a 60% chance and Middlesbrough have a 54% chance. However, one unfortunate team will miss out.
Ipswich are in category two. We now have a 7% chance automatic promotion, which is comparable to Watford’s 8% and Brentford’s 6% chance. All three teams have a 2% chance of winning the league, and their most probable finish is within the play-offs.
Each team should be looking to secure their place-off space. It would be a surprise if any of these teams go up in the automatic spots.
The third group still have a chance of getting into the play-offs, but it is still more probable that they will finish outside of the play-offs. Naridge head this pack and actually stand a greater chance of finishing in the play-offs, than outside of them, which is annoying, given our current freefall.
We are now tied with our previous worst run of the season, which puts us eighth in the eight-game form table and 15th in the six-game form table. For context, Middlesbrough, in second place, have double our points tally.
It is difficult to write this blog after garnering one point from three bottom-six opponents, having previously acquired 24 points from a possible 24, against the bottom-seven teams. One bad result against the bottom-six is a blip, but three in a row points to more serious problems which need to be addressed, and this contributes to the negative prediction.
After acquiring one point in two home games, Ipswich have now fallen from first to fourth in the home table, one point behind Derby in first. We do have one home game in hand, but after our recent form, we have a high probability of losing.
Sheffield Wednesday looks like an easy home draw. But they are actually fifth in the away table having won 43% of their away games. They usually go into the break 0-0, so we should expect them to be difficult to breakdown, which must be the platform that they start from.
Ipswich have no win in three games and no win at home in two. Contrast this with Sheffield Wednesday having no win in four games, and the optimistic supporters amongst us have something to pin their hopes on. But it isn’t much.
This game pits two of the best defences in the league against one another. Ipswich are fourth in the defensive table, whilst Sheffield Wednesday are second. One statistic I am grateful of is that whilst we are fifth in the offensive table with 46 goals, Sheffield Wednesday are 24th with 22 goals.
Neither team play possession-based football, both having 49% of the ball. Sheffield Wednesday have more quality on the ball though, with a 72% pass success rate, compared to Ipswich’s 66%. Sheffield Wednesday make 395 passes per game, in comparison to our 408, but they pretty much match us for short passes, indicating our inclination to go long.
Ipswich take 14.6 shots per game, compared to Sheffield Wednesday’s 13.8. Our clinical finishing is largely due to the fact that our strikers (Murphy and McGoldrick) are first and second in the shots table. The latter is a real indication that McGoldrick needs to step up his performances in front of goal, as service is not the issue.
Sheffield Wednesday’s best goalscorer is on five, which is no surprise after seeing them in the offensive table.
Sheffield Wednesday’s away record and our current form suggest we will lose 1-0. Their goal will come between 31-45mins, which is when they score the most. This will be the first time we concede at home during this time.
Tom Lees is statistically Sheffield Wednesday’s best player, but as he is yet another defender, I’m just going to skip him and go to their second best player Jacques Maghoma. Maghoma is a 27-year-old left winger. He would be sixth in our list of best players, joint with Jonny Williams’s contribution to our progress.
Maghoma has an 86% pass success rate, and has set up four goals this season. He dribbles relatively often (twice per game) and does it successfully, as he is also strong at making key passes. The weakest part of his game is shooting, as he often shoots from distance, but is yet to get on the scoresheet this year.
Maghoma was most similar to Williams, but a mere four games means we should perhaps opt to compare him to Bishop. Bishop has a 77.6% pass accuracy, which is high amongst our squad, but still someway off Maghoma. Bishop makes half as many key passes per game, which suggests Bishop could work on his end product.
Ipswich 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday to score between 31-45mins
Here’s to hoping the statistics are wrong (again) and we smash them out of the park.
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