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Thread | Educational Reform
at 03:29 6 Jul 2024
First thing Starmer needs to do is invest in more maths teachers in Inverness. They still haven't counted all their votes. [Post edited 6 Jul 3:29]
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Thread | Apoliticals! Ye be warned, fer there be politics lurkin' within this thread...
at 06:32 2 Jun 2024
Most elections I come on here and give my two cents worth regarding democracy in the UK. Specifically taking votes from one party and adding it to another. It is a system that favours the leading party, but often the second place gains at a slightly lesser rate.
This time I come with the same warnings, but also some simpler solutions than what’s been suggested before.
Before we get into that. I want to say that first past the post served us well for a time. I’ve gone back and assessed the last 50 elections and here is what I found out. The last time the leading party did not steal votes from another party was in 1910. Before then it was pretty common fo rvotes not to be stolen. Indeed 7 elections in a row, no votes were stolen by the main party.
In 1874 the Conservative government of Benjamin Disraeli won the election as were under-represented by 1.40. So for every one person representing them in parliament, they should have had 1.40. Nowadays it has flipped on its head, the ruling parties have inflated majorities. Tony Blair’s 2005 election victory was the worst offender. They had a misrepresentation of 0.64. So for every 1 MP, they should have had 0.64. You can see these peaks and troughs represented clearly on this graph. 1 is fair.
The small numbers can give a distorted view though, that it isn’t that bad. But we can be talking up to 6.3m people’s votes being unjustly transferred to the ruling party, out of 31m voters. It is theft, and it translates into a mandate that these 6.3m people did not give.
Here’s the full list:
We have a strong liberal tradition in this country that goes back to the days of John Locke. Modern liberal thought is being suppressed. When Tony Blair came to power in 2005 he got 55% of the seats, with 35% of the vote! The lib Dems got 9% of the seats, from 22% of the vote.
It is the same today. At the last election the Lib Dems got 11 seats, when they should have had 75. The Green Party got one seat, when they should have been represented by 17.
We need a shake up in politics, but we are likely to see the same pattern of over-representation at the next election.
A simple fix would be to weight the MPs votes. So, using the last election as an example, when the Green MP votes, they should not vote with the power of 1 point, they vote with the power of 16.97 points. When a Conservative MP votes, they should not vote with the power of 1 point, but with the power of 0.78 points. This brings the MPs representative power back into proportion with the votes. It will make people think more about voting for the people they want to be running the country and representing them.
As I’ve said in years gone by, I do not give this opinion as a request. I do not recognise the leading party’s right to take away the vote from people and unjustly add it to their pile.
EDIT: If you'd prefer to look at the spreadsheets directly, DM me and I'll link you. [Post edited 2 Jun 6:35]
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Thread | Why is it always 9th?
at 06:03 31 May 2024
The dust has settled. McKenna has signed his contract. Relief, hope, and an array of other emotions have unfolded. You start to get back to your normal routine. You look for your nemesis on TWTD to begin a pointless argument that only you and your nemesis care about. But there is something gnawing away at you, at the back of your mind, stopping you from your quest in life. In a moment of cutting clarity you hear it again “9th!”. You look around… "where the #### did that come from?".
A few hours later, there it is again… “9th!”... why is it always 9th? Fear not, I’m here to plug the gap between McKenna’s contract and the next lazily linked player. I’m here to answer this question that is bugging you!
Since the 95-96 season we’ve had 86 promoted sides . As you’d expect, the most popular finishing positions are 20th (14 times), 19th (13), and 18th (12). And then we have 9th (8). 9th? Yep, 9th. Here’s the full list:
It's expected that many promoted teams struggle to compete and get relegated, hence the high frequencies for 18th, 19th, and 20th positions.
9th position being the next most common suggests that a certain number of promoted teams not only avoid relegation but perform significantly well to finish in the top half of the table. Here are some possible reasons and how we stack up.
Quality
Some promoted teams go up with significant quality, for example Vardy or Grealish. Others go up with great collective output.
We have been promoted playing excellent team football. Some of the goals we scored this season were frankly ridiculous. We have strong team cohesion and morale, having gone through two successive promotions together. Our players have a winning mentality and resilience that will be hard to break. They have only lost 10 league games in 2 seasons, and this will count for something.
Investment and Management
The effective use of promotion funds and smart management decisions can significantly impact a promoted team's success.
I can’t think of anyone I’d rather have leading the club than Ashton and McKenna in the transfer market. You know we will strengthen and you know we will do it in a way that brings current players along and is respectful. No huge disruption, measured improvement. With the huge financial boost and their ability in the transfer market, we are in an excellent position. Furthermore, McKenna is arguably the best young manager in the country and he will be able to make adjustments on the pitch that others can’t. He will likely win us points that other managers can’t.
Mid-table Parity
The competition in the mid-table of the Premiership can be relatively even, offering opportunities for well-prepared promoted teams, such as ourselves, to secure higher finishes.
We could well be a team that takes the division by storm and skips over the mid quality teams that don’t have the same drive and momentum as us. While the big teams like Man City and Arsenal might smash us, we can be competitive against the others, as we demonstrated against Wolves.
Style of Play
A promoted team's style of play can greatly influence their ability to compete in the Premiership.
I think our defence is underrated. Away from home in the Championship we showed we can be robust. We had the second best defence in the league away from home. We are excellent on the counter attack and teams that come to dominate us possession-wise won’t have an easy time. McKenna has demonstrated he can be adaptable, and he will likely have more tricks up his sleeve to refine us in an out of possession.
So… while the modal data shows a clear trend of promoted teams struggling, the significant frequency of 9th place finishes highlights that a subset of promoted teams can perform quite well, avoiding the relegation battle and securing respectable mid-table positions. I believe we can emerge from the summer break as one of those teams and so do you, which is why 9th keeps popping up in your head.
Note: If you want access to the Google Sheet, DM me and I'll add you. |
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Thread | Targets
at 07:32 20 May 2024
I'm here to save you from the endless KM rumours!
Ipswich come into the 2024-25 Premiership season with two consecutive 2nd place finishes. Town will be seeking to replicate this and may deem anything less than second as a failure. So too will Arsenal, who themselves have finished second two seasons in a row. One thing is for certain, next season, at least one of these teams won’t finish second.
Since the top tier moved to 20 teams 86 teams have been promoted. You may speculate that this is bad maths. But in the 1994-95 season only two clubs were promoted. Reading finished second and missed out to Bolton in the Play-offs. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, in 2005-06, Reading got promoted with a record points total (106) and never looked back.
The most impressive performance by a promoted team was a team you may have heard of - Ipswich. Written off by everyone following their play-off success, Ipswich amassed 66 points, finishing 5th and qualifying for Europe. Town are the only promoted team to win more than half their games and have the highest goal difference. If they can’t finish second, Town may have to settle for European qualification.
At the other end of the talent pool we find the worst teams of the modern era. Of course, Norwich are so bad we see them twice. Ipswich will be wanting to chalk those totals off by Christmas, if we want to put ourselves in a good position to stay up. If we have a tough season, we will still want to better 11 and 22 points.
At the very least we want to be targeting 17th place. Survival. So we can give ourselves the opportunity to consolidate our position in the league and build. There has been a 12 point range for the teams finishing in 17th (44-32 points). Though this past season we had the lowest total, in part, due to a points deduction. Without that Forest would have finished on 36, the modal average, reducing the range to 10 points (44-34 points). One could argue to stay up we would replace one of the bottom three and need to better this tally.
Another way of looking at it is we would need to beat the teams in the bottom three. Or, beat the team in 18th place. This season produced the lowest points total for 18th place. Luton were only four points above Norwich’s -61 GD season (26 and 22 respectively). Two thirds of teams are finishing 18th with 33 to 36 points. So you have to count yourself unlucky if you are finishing 18th with 37 or more points. West Ham getting relegated on 42 points can feel particularly hard done by. They would have survived on any other season with that tally and GD.
From these charts we can argue a few things. 76% of the time, you will finish ahead of the team in 18th with 38 points. If Ipswich get 45 points, it would take a record breaking season for Town to get relegated. If you are planning to survive, this is the number you should target at the beginning of the season, so it is not in the hands of chance.
Of the teams that got relegated, the best GD ever was Middlesbrough on -9. This was in the 1996-97 season when they were relegated with 39 points. The reality of finishing so low is you will see more goals go against you than you do for you. Even in Ipswich’s phenomenal season, Town had a GD of 15. Only 7 promoted teams from 86 have recorded a positive GD in their first season.
It’s even rarer for a team to record >50 goals and still get relegated. So targeting 50 goals would be a reasonable ambition. Though, word of warning, Luton and Leicester have scored >50 in successive seasons and both have been relegated! If we are to score >50 goals, let’s not be the ones to make it 3 in a row. Seeing Luton with such a low points tally and a good goal difference is surprising.
No relegated team has conceded less than 50 goals. This makes more than 50 goals scored and less than 50 goals conceded a pretty natural target to aim for.
So here we have it. I’ll be tracking how we get on against previous seasons in some sort of half-arsed manner. The spreadsheets are loaded up, working automatically. It is just about how regularly I get on to post them. If you want access to the spreadsheets themselves, let me know in a private message. It is currently showing the Championship, as it is pulling from the TWTD table, so when that updates, we should be golden.
Black Line = Derby’s 11 point season
Green Line = Norwich’s 22 point season
Red Line = 45 point safety line
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 66 point season
Black Line = Derby’s 20 GF
Green Line = Norwich’s 23 GF
Red Line = 50 GF target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 57 GF
Black Line = Sheff Utd 104 GA
Green Line = Norwich’s 84 GA
Red Line = 50 GA target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 42 GA
[Post edited 20 May 7:39]
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Thread | Greg Leigh on NTT20
at 20:46 17 May 2024
12:00 until finish, if you are interested in hearing how he is getting ahead of the play off final |
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Thread | Following on from the Home kit thread...
at 06:50 15 May 2024
What do you think is the best away kit?
I'm personally a big fan of the orange ones and think this year's was the best of the lot. That would probably be followed by the 80-81 third kit.
But I do look back and see our first real away colour was yellow with blue trim. That seemed to have died in 1977. Do you think we'd ever dare do our traditional yellow away kit again? Would you like it?
What colour do you think our away kit will be this season? And what do you want it to be? |
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Thread | Rumour FC
at 21:54 9 May 2024
With all the stupid rumours going around, I want to see just how expensive I can get this team during the summer.
Edit: I've made a few changes. Where we don't have a reported fee, I've used Transfermarkt, designated by a *. Transfermarkt is in Euros, but I can't be bothered to XE figures into Pounds
I must have counted incorrectly before, We're up to 172.5m...
 [Post edited 2 Jun 19:43]
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Thread | Best players that fit our system from the Championship
at 22:31 5 May 2024
I was somewhat tempted to reply to this thread... but decided against it. Possible Hull transfer targets ....? by Bellevue_Blue 5 May 19:35I've been really impressed with Hull this season and certainly wouldn't mind if we went for a few of theirs (inc loanees) next year. These three would definitely fit our current transfer strategy ..
CM - Tyler Morton (21) - Spent the last two years playing week in, week out in the Champ. Very durable having played 40 & 39 league games respectively. High resale value whatever happens. Feels a lot like the 'do it all 6' types that we currently have with Mass & Sam. Likely available this summer.
RW - Jaden Philogene (22) - 32 games, 12 goals, 6 assists. Offers something different to Wes with the little bit of magic you need in the Prem to make things happen. £20 million + but another one with high resale value whatever happens. Linked with him last summer as well.
AM - Fabio Carvalho (21) - 20 games, 9 goals, 2 assists. Feels like a similar player to Chappers as that 'shadow striker' type. Could offer us another ST alternative if we had to play differently at the bigger clubs. Likely up for sale this summer. Another one with great value whatever happens.
Honourable mentions to Greaves & Delap who will likely be playing top of the champ/ bottom of the Prem whatever happens next year!
Makes you wonder how Hull only finished 7th with real quality through the spine of the team!
This is not a “replace the entire squad” post. Rather, just looking at who we could boost the squad. I’m humble enough to know that I don’t know who will step up next season. Many thought Burgess wouldn’t, many thought Hladky would be let go, many thought Jackson wouldn’t be effective. But all have proven their worth in the Championship to varying degrees. There will be surprises in the Premiership. None of the following players would be guaranteed to start the new season ahead of the existing squad. For me, consistency will continue to play a big part the Premiership, and it is the current team's starting places to lose.
Goalkeeper
Michael Cooper (24) - I wouldn't bust a gut to get him, but I think he is the best keeper. Interestingly He was out this season. When he was playing Plymouuth conceded 1.26 goals a game. When he wasn't, they were conceding 1.7 goals per game. If he'd played the whole season, I don't think Plymouth wuld have been as close to the relegation zone as they were. His save percentage was 4th in the league.
Max O'Leary (27) would be my second choice. 2nd best sace percentage in the League and played a full season.
I couldn't say how comfortable either are with their feet. Both sides are middling with how much they play out from the back.
Left back
LB: I don’t know, I’d be looking for someone more defensively solid than Davis. If we are looking to close out a game. Not sure.
Right back
Walker-Peters. Honestly, it feels like a brainless choice. Wasn’t particularly impressed, but so many others seem to be that I feel like I’m obliged to go along with it.
Perry Ng (28) Great in the tackle, but not sure about going forward.
Centre back
There is no centre-back that stands out to me. I think we have come across some organised teams (Watford at home, West Brom away). But no individual centre back has stood out as having our attackers in their pocket. I expect many to pick Rodon, but he didn’t look good in the game at Portman Road.
Centre Midfield
We play with two midfielders who can break up play and pick a pass. We aren't looking for tonnes of creativity here.Sam Morsy made the most tackles for a midfielder. Mass, who has a little more creative freedom was 8th. On the face of it, that would rule out Sara. But Sara is 7th for midfield tackles. In second is Ben Sheaf. This underpins my decision making.
My first pick would be Ben Sheaf (26) in Morsy's role. He looked good when we played recently.
Tyler Morton (21) was suggested on the Hull thread, but I don't think he has enough bite for our midfield. He had half the amount of completed tackles as Sheaf. Flynn Downes also didn't perform as highly, with half of Morsy's number.
For Luongo's role, I'd pick Sara. Bit of a no-brainer. This list isn't meant to be relistic option, so don't expect him to be donning blue next year!
Left Forward
Crysencio Summerville (22): First name on the sheet. Looked great whenever I’ve seen him. Numbers are impressive, even defensively for a forward.
Right Forward
Jaden Philogene (22): Although he played more games on the left this season. He can play with both feet and I'd bring him in primarily for the right, if we were to get Summerville! Another talented forward who also has good defensive contributions.
Centre Forward
Adam Armstrong (27). Pretty easy choice. Good goalscoring and assists
Striker
Not sure. No one stands out. At a push - Emmanuel Latte Lath (25) or Josh Sargent (24)
[Post edited 5 May 22:42]
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Thread | It was a nervy final game...
at 14:38 4 May 2024
But us, Sheff Wed, and Plymouth survived our first season back in the Championship... |
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Thread | Alf Ramsey Way...
at 10:25 4 May 2024
Any content? Or have I got the times wrong? |
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Thread | Countdown
at 18:32 1 May 2024
Feel free to add yours if it helps |
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Thread | 93 points
at 22:15 30 Apr 2024
Joint most from a second placed team from my perspective
Season: Position - Team - Points
2005-06: 1 - Reading - 106
1998-99: 1 - Sunderland - 105
2013-14: 1 - Leicester - 102
2009-10: 1 - Newcastle - 102
2022-23: 1 - Burnley - 101
2000–01: 1 - Fulham - 101
2017-18: 1 - Wolves - 99
2001–02: 1 - Man City - 99
1988-89: 1 - Chelsea - 99
2002–03: 1 - Portsmouth - 98
1996–97: 1 - Bolton - 98
2023-24: 1 - Leicester - 97
2020-21: 1 - Norwich - 97
1992-93: 1 - Newcastle - 96
2018-19: 1 - Norwich - 94
2016-17: 1 - Newcastle - 94
2004-05: 1 - Sunderland - 94
2003–04: 1 - Norwich - 94
1997–98: 1 - Nottingham Forest - 94
2023-24: 2 - Ipswich - 93
2019-20: 1 - Leeds - 93
2016-17: 2 - Brighton - 93
2015-16: 1 - Burnley - 93
2013-14: 2 - Burnley - 93 |
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Site Scores| Forum Votes: | 3730 | | Comment Votes: | 455 | | Prediction League: | 0 | | TOTAL: | 4185 |
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