|If Statistics Won Games: Ipswich 2-0 Reading|
Written by Kropotkin123 on Friday, 20th Feb 2015 22:25
This international edition comes straight from France. So in the spirit of the occasion, crack open a bottle of Bordeaux, stick a tartiflette in the oven and soak up the oelignanthic atmosphere of this winning edition of [i]If Statistics Won Games[/i].
[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]
Fulham 0-1 Ipswich
Ipswich to score between 0-15mins
Success rate: 50%
Conclusion: Close enough!
[b]The Wider Context[/b]
After back-to-back wins, Ipswich now have a 15% chance of finishing in the top two places. Probability considers us in a two-horse race, competing with Watford for fourth or fifth. We have a 90% chance of making the play-offs.
For the first time since doing this section, Naridge have a greater chance of finishing sixth than they do seventh, following a win against Wolves and Brentford’s shock 3-0 loss to Charlton.
The most pessimistic amongst us can breathe a sigh of relief. Ipswich now have a 0% chance of getting relegated, even if we lost every single game. No doubt with this pressure off their backs, the players can go out there and enjoy their games. In all seriousness though, what a pleasure to be saying that, in contrast to when Mick took over, two and a half years ago.
We are due our third consecutive win, as we take on Reading this Saturday, due to the previously explained guarantee, following a run of five poor games. This week’s game sees the best home team in the league face off against the sixth-worst away team. Reading have lost 53% of their away games, a figure that is only dwarfed by our 67% home win ratio.
Reading’s most common away result is shared amongst five different scorelines, which doesn’t really improve on the established facts. The scoreline that has the highest combined modal average is a 2-1 home win. There is a 33% chance it will be 0-0 at half-time, so we should expect to first half goal.
Reading have been comparatively poor for the majority of the season. They got off to a relatively good start, beating Ipswich and Middlesbrough and thumping Fulham 3-0. An uncharacteristic 4-0 loss to Nottingham Forest set the pattern for their season though. Reading have conceded a massive 46 goals, which is the sixth worst in the division.
In contrast, Ipswich now have the third-best defence in the division, following Derby’s 3-3 draw with Rotherham. This week has really shown how fallible other teams are around us, and if we can build on this third win in a row we could really mount a serious challenge on the top two places again.
Despite a run of five bad games, Ipswich are eighth in the eight-game form table. However we are the only team inside the top six, not to be inside the top six form table. Reading are currently posting form above their station, as they sit 13th in the form table. However with a run of two straight defeats, they look like they are heading for another poor run of form.
Reading are statistically weak at defending set pieces and attacks down the wings. You would think, based on this they were weak in the air, but aerial duels are actually a strength. Reading are also caught offside often.
Reading have a 72% pass success rate, compared to our 65%, but unlike most teams with a significantly superior pass success rate, their passes per game total is quite comparable. Ipswich have made 408 passes per game, whilst Reading have made 422. Ipswich have played a long pass 94 times per game, Reading have made 85.
Ipswich are much more solid in defence, making 19 interceptions, 35 clearances and 17 tackles per game. Reading on the other hand make 13 interceptions, 24 clearances and 18 tackles.
Up front, Ipswich have had 15 shots per game, compared to Reading's 13. Thirty-four of our 50 goals have come from open play, whereas Reading have only score 21 goals from open play. Ipswich have converted 10% of their chances, whereas Reading have converted 8% of theirs. This has led to Ipswich scoring 1.6 goals a game to Reading’s 1.1.
As previously stated, there is a 66% chance of a first half goal. As we are likely to score two goals, it is more likely ours will be split between the two halves. Our first goal will be scored between 31-45mins as we have score six goals during this period and Reading have conceded four.
Ipswich will the score straight after the break as we have scored five goals and Reading have conceded eight. As it is highly probable we will score from a set piece, I also predict a defender will score in this game.
There is no obvious synthesis between when Reading will score and when Ipswich will concede. Consequently I am removing Reading’s goal from the predictions. It will subsequently be 2-0.
Reading's best player is Oliver Norwood. Norwood is a 23-year-old attacking midfielder who has assisted five goals from his central position. He has had the man of the match award five times this season and has played 25 games.
Norwood has a 78.7% passing success rate, and like to take long shots. He makes a lot of key passes for the team, but also puts in a decent defensive shift. He is strong at tackling, making 3.8 per game, in addition to 2.5 interceptions and 3.8 tackles.
Norwood would be Ipswich’s third best player, so he shouldn’t be sniffed at. Let’s hope Skuse keeps him in his pocket all game. Norwood is most comparable to Bishop, who is also strong going forward and in defence, despite his stature.
Ipswich 2-0 Reading
Ipswich to score between 31-45mins
Ipswich to score between 46-60mins
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