|If Statistics Won Games: Nrocwih 0-2 Ipswich|
Written by Kropotkin123 on Friday, 27th Feb 2015 15:27
In honour of Fabian Wilnis, [i]If Statistics Won Games[/i] will not be losing to them lot, no matter what!
[b]Last Match Prediction[/b]
Success rate: 0%
[b]The Wider Context[/b]
Isn’t the Championship is exciting? Bournemouth had such a huge gap to the other teams at the top of the probability table. They were favourites to win it. Now look at them! After our game against Reading, they were down to a 40% chance of a top two finish. For newcomers, when comparing the top teams we look at their individual probability, not they combined probability. Put simply, this means there are 200 percentage points available when comparing, not 100.
Town are down to a 12% chance of finishing in the top two, whilst Naridge are up to 17% following victory over Watford. For the first time readers from north of the border may get quite excited about this. But we are experienced enough this season to see how much these percentage points fluctuate.
For the record Derby are first in the probability table, with a comfortable 68% chance of a top two finish, whilst Middlesbrough have a 47% chance. After falling away just before Christmas, Derby have been comparatively solid, regardless of the money they have thrown at the situation to get there.
City must be really proud of themselves, going into this weekend on a high. After all, following an impressive run of results, they have now secured their place in the Championship, having a 0% chance of relegation from over 15m simulations. I think I’ll lead the line in offering my congratulations, it did look dicey for a while, with Neyul in charge.
Ipswich’s form isn’t the greatest at the moment. Our concern is focused on the defence. The previously solid Tommy Smith seems nervous, and I cannot see it being too long before Luke Chambers is moved into the centre to plug the gap. Tommy is a quality defender, so it is a surprise he has taken this knock in confidence.
Performances aside, we have remained solid up front. Daryl Murphy continues to get goals, and Freddie Sears is a perfect addition to our first team. He’s an astute signing, having scored three goals and set up two in four starts and four substitutions. We have continued to be a threat away from home, and have an 81% chance of scoring against the Budgers.
Scum are in excellent form though. They have won five on the bounce. The only previous time they had been undefeated this season longer than that they beat a team beginning with 'Black' away from home, prior to losing 1-0 at home. Of course, I’m not suggesting this is the cause of them going on a run that included just one win from ten games. But I’m having a hard time finding better explanations
Winning is habitual though, and Ipswich have to respect that. Naridge have score a least one goal in 94% of their games at Carrot Place. Furthermore they have scored in the last 11 home games. But they lost to Brentford and Reading, and drew to Brighton, Leeds and Rotherham in that success story, so we have to keep things in perspective.
Ipswich have the upper hand. 'Them lot' are weak at home for a top six side, having gain seven points fewer at home. Naridge are an away side. They have one additional point away from home, than they do at home. The Budgers often throw matches away in the last 30mins as they over-commit themselves. They have conceded just one goal fewer than Blackpool in this time, despite it being their second worse time to concede a goal!
City do have a talent going forward. They are fourth in the offensive table, one place ahead of Ipswich. Cameron Jerome is their top scorer on 16, some way behind Daryl Zorro. Lewis Grabban also chips in for a respectable share, so it will certainly be a test for our defence.
However, on balance I do not think they have enough about them to open us up prior to 60mins, when they will over-commit with their fans behind them and get caught out twice in 30mins for a 2-0 victory to Ipswich.
Real Naridge play total football in front of the Barclay, for fear of their Wrath. Much of it is totally pointless, but with 55.6% of the possession putting them third in the table, it is total football nonetheless. They play 393 short passes per game, being successful 78% of the time. In contrast Ipswich retain 49.3% of the play, as we know we don’t need to keep to ball in third for half an hour prior to daring to enter the opposition’s half.
Up front Naridge take 16.5 shots per game, which is the most in the division, highlighting how wasteful they are in front of goal! Ipswich are fifth, with 15.2 shots per game, underlining our clinical nature. Naridge like run at the opposition, and are in fourth in the dribbles per game section. Ipswich are 23rd, sandwiched between creativity heavyweights Rotherham and Birmingham.
Late goals for Ipswich are guaranteed in this game due to how poor Naridge’s defence is, particularly when they over-commit. The Serinus flaviventris make the fewest tackles per game in the division. And unlike Ipswich who counterbalance their eighth place standing by placing second in the interceptions table, Naridge are nowhere to be seen.
Everything from form to playing style is pointing towards a ruthless smash and grab operation that will leave Naridge bitter and questioning how they could lose to us 2-0.
Getting the first goal is important, but it won’t happen until at least the 61st minute, when Naridge panic and start to play a more risky strategy. Ipswich will catch them on the break, and score between
Our second goal will be scored late on in the game between 76-90mins. Freddie Sears will choose this point to announce himself to the Northerners.
The best Naridge player is 20-year-old attacking midfielder Nathan Redmond. Redmond is a versatile player who has played AMR, AMC, MC, M, AML and FW this season. Redmond has featured in the majority of City’s games, starting 26 times.
Our closest player, statistically speaking, would probably be David McGoldrick, but that would be pushing things somewhat. It is more truthful to say we have no direct comparison.
With so many positions played, it is strange to see that patterns of end product have developed. Redmond has played nine games from AMR, scoring two goals and creating none. A good return, on goals, but lacking the key passes from the right wing. From MC Redmond has created four goals from five games, which is a much more threatening prospect.
Needless to say with seven assists, Redmond’s passing is good, with a 79.7% pass success rate from an attacking position. He is strong at dribbling, long-shots and taking set-pieces. He attempts a lot of lay-offs, dribbles and crosses.
Nrocwih 0-2 Ipswich
Ipswich to score between 61-75mins
Ipswich to score between 76-90mins
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