For what it's worth, I agree with your arithmetic. If all games in hand (of teams above us) were to occur now, and were won by the team with the game in hand, then Sunderland of Wednesday would be 6th, each 7 points above us.
We'd then have 14 games to make up those 7 games. If we did that, goal difference would hopefully take care of itself, but it's not a given.
So over 14 games we would need to get 0.5 points per game more than Wednesday and Sunderland, and slightly less than that v. Oxford. It's a tough ask, but with the next half dozen games well winnable, we're in with a shout.
I think we can forget about catching Wigan. Plymouth have 2 games in hand. Everyone else above us is within a game of us. I don't think the game in hand situation really prevents us from knowing what we need to do. The 6th placed team currently has 53. If all games in hand are played, that goes to a max of 55. That's not a seismic change. Plymouth are likely to get at least a point from their 2 games, so that takes them to 54. In reality you're looking at the difference between 54 and 55. Even if we had certainty on that number, we wouldn't know whether we need around 75 points at the end of the season, or some higher number. |  |
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