| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been 18:57 - Sep 10 with 1231 views | SheffordBlue |
Bored this afternoon so thought I'd dig into some stats. The table below shows the difference between the goals scored and individual xG (how many goals they could have been expected to have scored). Chappers currently outperforming his xG by a big margin compared with the other leading goals scorers in the League. I've included the other Ipswich goal scorers for comparison. Harness also outperforming his xG by a good margin.
Gls xG Difference
Connor Chaplin 5 1 4
JCH 5 2.7 2.3
Aaron Collins 4 1.7 2.3
Anis Mehmeti 4 2.7 1.3
Jack Marriott 4 2.3 1.7
Sam Smith 4 2.2 1.8
Colby Bishop 4 3 1
C.Brannagan 4 2.5 1.5
Gassan Ahadme 3 2.6 0.4
Marcus Harness 3 0.6 2.4
Sam Morsy 2 1.1 0.9
Kayden Jackson 1 1.1 -0.1
TJJ 1 0.6 0.4
Wes Burns 1 0.4 0.6
Lee Evans 1 0.5 0.5
Freddie Ladapo 0 1.3 -1.3
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| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:45 - Sep 10 with 1134 views | HighgateBlue |
Interesting stuff. I must say I don't feel that I fully understand xG.
He's clearly been great so far this season, and certainly clinical.
However, the xG figure of 1 seems low. Is that because he's not getting into positions, with the ball, that are deemed to be goalscoring chance positions? It's surprising, for example, that Morsy's xG is slightly higher than Chappers'. Is there anything in that? Or does it just reflect our formation and how we play? |  | | |
| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:54 - Sep 10 with 1106 views | Swansea_Blue |
Why were you bored this afternoon? You should have gone to the foo…..oh.
Decent player. He’s an eye for goal and can be clinical. At the moment, it doesn’t look like we’re missing Celina either. |  |
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| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:54 - Sep 10 with 1109 views | SheffordBlue |
| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:45 - Sep 10 by HighgateBlue |
Interesting stuff. I must say I don't feel that I fully understand xG.
He's clearly been great so far this season, and certainly clinical.
However, the xG figure of 1 seems low. Is that because he's not getting into positions, with the ball, that are deemed to be goalscoring chance positions? It's surprising, for example, that Morsy's xG is slightly higher than Chappers'. Is there anything in that? Or does it just reflect our formation and how we play? |
It means he's scored from chances that someone wouldn't often be expected to score from. I.e He's taken hard chances well. It's still quite early to be drawing too many conclusions but as a team we're not creating a lot of really clear cut chances.
Morsy's higher xG means he's been getting himself into good scoring postions but not always taking his chances e.g the chance versus Bolton
There's a good explanation of xG here - https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/ | |
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| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 09:11 - Sep 11 with 803 views | textbackup |
| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:54 - Sep 10 by Swansea_Blue |
Why were you bored this afternoon? You should have gone to the foo…..oh.
Decent player. He’s an eye for goal and can be clinical. At the moment, it doesn’t look like we’re missing Celina either. |
Chaplin is far better suited to L1 and this team. So glad we didn’t go all out for Celina |  |
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| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 12:24 - Sep 11 with 647 views | HighgateBlue |
| Just How Clinical Chappers Has Been on 19:54 - Sep 10 by SheffordBlue |
It means he's scored from chances that someone wouldn't often be expected to score from. I.e He's taken hard chances well. It's still quite early to be drawing too many conclusions but as a team we're not creating a lot of really clear cut chances.
Morsy's higher xG means he's been getting himself into good scoring postions but not always taking his chances e.g the chance versus Bolton
There's a good explanation of xG here - https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/ |
Thanks. It's really what the threshold for a chance is, or how good chances vs half chances are weighted that I've always found a bit opaque. I'd also be interested to know whether there's any element of discretion/opinion, or whether an attempt at goal from a particular place will always have the same weighting for xG purposes. If it's at all discretionary in some models, how many people's opinions go into that, and how much those opinions vary. That sort of thing.
I guess we all know that no model will be perfect, and that a pinch of salt is required especially at this stage of the season, but it does give an interesting guide.
Thinking about it, Chappers has played fewer minutes than Morsy, so I suppose his xG per minute would be a tad higher than Morsy. He's certainly been clinical so far this season, and long may it continue. | | | |
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