As PM? Keir Starmer, you would think. As Tory leader? It's (genuinely) a close thing between Kemi Badenoch, Kwasi Kwarteng, and Boris Johnson. There are plenty of variables, but once Truss pipped Mordaunt to second spot, I suggested that Truss, Starmer, Johnson might be worth a few quid for the next three PMs. It's far from impossible. I can certainly see Truss being a car crash, and the Tories are exceptional at spotting an electoral loser and sticking the knife in, but I think Truss will enjoy the support of numerous Johnsonites for a while, while the next generation of Kwasi and Kemi need a bit of time to burnish their reputation and become better known in the country. There's also a sense that after 12 years the government is just very tired and at a very low ebb. So I wouldn't be surprised if those with leadership aspirations were relatively content to allow Truss to take the hit in 2024 and then circle. Johnson won't have been part of the next car crash, optically at least, and so I think he will have a rose-tinted shot at getting back into the hot seat. It won't be easy, but I think the country may be ready for a personality again after 2 years of the Trussbot. I'm not saying I want any of this to happen, just calling it as I see it. If you really think Truss is for it, then there's 50/1 to be had about her being the shortest serving PM in history. Interestingly, although 2024 (when she's confirmed the general election will be) is the favourite in terms of the year of her departure, it's not odds on. |  |