| For comparison... 08:07 - Mar 22 with 1923 views | tractorboy1978 |
At around this stage last season:
Rotherham P38 - 80 points
Wigan - P36 - 76 points
MK - P38 - 73 points
It finished:
Wigan - 92 points
Rotherham - 90 points
MK - 89 points
All 3 teams faltered a bit under the pressure towards the business end. |  | | |  |
| For comparison... on 09:02 - Mar 22 with 1712 views | TalkingBlues |
A great comparison and likely to be a story borne out again this season, top two chopping and changing within the auto places. No doubt MK fans were thinking the same last season as we are now "there's a chance" which of course, there is.
Also makes a bit of a mockery of the suggestion by quite a few about what an unusual season this is from a points tally perspective, your stats clearly show that this season is no different to last season on that front, we just haven't done enough to put ourselves in the driving seat and create a more comfortable end to the season, we were far too inconsistent in that 2nd third of the season. [Post edited 22 Mar 2023 9:03]
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| For comparison... on 09:55 - Mar 22 with 1492 views | Rozz |
| For comparison... on 09:02 - Mar 22 by TalkingBlues |
A great comparison and likely to be a story borne out again this season, top two chopping and changing within the auto places. No doubt MK fans were thinking the same last season as we are now "there's a chance" which of course, there is.
Also makes a bit of a mockery of the suggestion by quite a few about what an unusual season this is from a points tally perspective, your stats clearly show that this season is no different to last season on that front, we just haven't done enough to put ourselves in the driving seat and create a more comfortable end to the season, we were far too inconsistent in that 2nd third of the season. [Post edited 22 Mar 2023 9:03]
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It's unusual in a few ways. After a quick scan, there's only 1 instance since '05 of a 3rd placed team breaking 90.
The highest total for 2nd place is 96pts, and I think Plymouth and Wednesday will clear that if they resist a wobble. This could be a record if someone wants to go back further.
If we end up on 92pts (as predicted) we'd have been promoted in 13/17 seasons outright, tied once (GD) and missed out 3 times.
The total points aren't that unusual, but 3rd position is shaping up to be unusually high-performing and thus disappointing for whoever misses out.
https://www.myfootballfacts.com/england_footy/football-league/english-football-l |  | | |
| For comparison... on 10:19 - Mar 22 with 1365 views | LankHenners |
Think Rotherham last season and Wednesday this are very similar - when you watch them they never look brilliant but are generally just very good at keeping the ball out of their net and can force home a goal or two to get the win. Rotherham had a slight wobble at the end but recovered in their last few games to steal 2nd. Without checking think they lost almost half their final 10 games including a few very uncharacteristic results against teams you'd think were walkovers for them.
Perhaps last night the start of a wobble for Wednesday who aren't used to being given a bloody nose and other teams might take advantage while their head's spinning a bit? Would be a surprise if every team in the top 4 kept up the pace they've set and the dropped points are rarely in games where you'd expect it. Fascinating end to the season in store. |  |
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| For comparison... on 10:26 - Mar 22 with 1319 views | davblue |
not sure you could level that at MK, 16 points from 8 games.
We will drop points as will Plymouth, Barnsley and Sheff wed, this is why i think Plymouth are in a good position points in the bag, it will be tough to overhaul them. |  | | |
| For comparison... on 10:59 - Mar 22 with 1175 views | TalkingBlues |
| For comparison... on 09:55 - Mar 22 by Rozz |
It's unusual in a few ways. After a quick scan, there's only 1 instance since '05 of a 3rd placed team breaking 90.
The highest total for 2nd place is 96pts, and I think Plymouth and Wednesday will clear that if they resist a wobble. This could be a record if someone wants to go back further.
If we end up on 92pts (as predicted) we'd have been promoted in 13/17 seasons outright, tied once (GD) and missed out 3 times.
The total points aren't that unusual, but 3rd position is shaping up to be unusually high-performing and thus disappointing for whoever misses out.
https://www.myfootballfacts.com/england_footy/football-league/english-football-l |
It's only unusual if we accept the predictions as fact. Anything is possible when you are benchmarking previous end of season totals against "predicted points" if teams "resist a wobble". If by "wobble" you mean "unlikely results" I can guarantee you there will be "wobbles", unlikely draws and losses affecting all the top teams between now and the end of the season, same as every other season and thus we really have no clue at all what the points will be until we reach the conclusion of game 46, only then will we know how unusual, or not, this season has in fact been. | |
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| For comparison... on 11:36 - Mar 22 with 1068 views | Rozz |
| For comparison... on 10:59 - Mar 22 by TalkingBlues |
It's only unusual if we accept the predictions as fact. Anything is possible when you are benchmarking previous end of season totals against "predicted points" if teams "resist a wobble". If by "wobble" you mean "unlikely results" I can guarantee you there will be "wobbles", unlikely draws and losses affecting all the top teams between now and the end of the season, same as every other season and thus we really have no clue at all what the points will be until we reach the conclusion of game 46, only then will we know how unusual, or not, this season has in fact been. |
I don't disagree there's a lot up for grabs and there will be twists and turns.
By wobble though I mean dropping off from their PPG average over 38 games, which is the best metric we have over a large sample. It won't take individual unexpected results that happen over a season, it would take considerable dips in established form.
Plymouth can draw 4 games out of 8 and still finish on 96pts.
If I had time we could compare certainties (historic seasons after 38 games) but I don't, but thought the numbers were interesting in any case. | | | |
| For comparison... on 11:49 - Mar 22 with 1012 views | tractorboy1978 |
| For comparison... on 11:36 - Mar 22 by Rozz |
I don't disagree there's a lot up for grabs and there will be twists and turns.
By wobble though I mean dropping off from their PPG average over 38 games, which is the best metric we have over a large sample. It won't take individual unexpected results that happen over a season, it would take considerable dips in established form.
Plymouth can draw 4 games out of 8 and still finish on 96pts.
If I had time we could compare certainties (historic seasons after 38 games) but I don't, but thought the numbers were interesting in any case. |
Wigan got 16 points from 10 and Rotherham got 10 points from 8 last season, so it does happen, although you'd say it is unlikely. | | | |
| For comparison... on 11:55 - Mar 22 with 995 views | Rozz |
| For comparison... on 11:49 - Mar 22 by tractorboy1978 |
Wigan got 16 points from 10 and Rotherham got 10 points from 8 last season, so it does happen, although you'd say it is unlikely. |
I'm not sure if it's just the way the season's gone or perhaps you never can predict these runs, but both Plymouth and Wednesday just feel relentless.
You could argue Argle were tracking for 120pts at one stage so actually their 2nd half season form is a better metric.
We just need to win our games and let the others feel the pressure. | | | |
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| For comparison... on 12:20 - Mar 22 with 853 views | bournemouthblue |
The goal differences are a bit higher than usual, we already have a higher goal difference than a lot of sides finish the season with normally and it should end higher than that still.
I always think goal difference over the course of a season is pretty good indicator how good a team is. |  |
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