| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 19:15 - May 30 with 1232 views | StokieBlue |
This article really highlights what a total mess we are in with regards to the climate:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cu
So essentially one of the main drivers for the warmest year in 100,000 years was us stopping the emission of highly polluting sulphur particles from shipping. These particles block the sunlight at a high level preventing it from reaching the ground and thus with less of them more energy got through and contributed to the warming.
We have basically been artificially cooling the globe by emitting a certain type of pollution whilst heating it by emitting another type of pollution. In a roundabout way it's proven that some form of geoengineering may be possible but that's really the last thing we will try.
It does highlight how complex the climate can be and also how we are messing it up in multiple different ways and some things we think might be beneficial in one aspect may not be in another aspect.
SB |  | | |  |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 19:49 - May 30 with 1149 views | CoachRob |
I think it is important to remember there is large uncertainty with aerosols and this study doesn't seem particularly sophisticated in its approach.
The geoengineering solution could work locally, but pushes problems elsewhere and all the political fall out that comes with it. Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS) has talked at length about the problems of termination shock (rising CO2 concentrations masked by aerosol negative forcing) and how the whole idea is completely unworkable.
Agree the climate is incredibly complex and the huge uncertainties we have around tipping elements is why we probably have to start dramatic mitigation soon whatever the economic costs to wealthy nations.
Thx for posting. |  | | |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 20:35 - May 30 with 1057 views | Swansea_Blue |
That would be expected, even if the degree to which it plays a role is under debate. Chuck sh*t up into the atmosphere and it's going to lower the energy reaching the surface of the earth. It's well known from observed volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo 1991 eruption, for example, is estimated to have cooled global temps by as much as 1.5°C for a while.
A mess indeed. I wonder at what point industrialists will swivel to make the case that we need more pollution, not less (ignoring the health impacts of course)... |  |
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| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 09:10 - May 31 with 923 views | StokieBlue |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 19:49 - May 30 by CoachRob |
I think it is important to remember there is large uncertainty with aerosols and this study doesn't seem particularly sophisticated in its approach.
The geoengineering solution could work locally, but pushes problems elsewhere and all the political fall out that comes with it. Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS) has talked at length about the problems of termination shock (rising CO2 concentrations masked by aerosol negative forcing) and how the whole idea is completely unworkable.
Agree the climate is incredibly complex and the huge uncertainties we have around tipping elements is why we probably have to start dramatic mitigation soon whatever the economic costs to wealthy nations.
Thx for posting. |
Interesting Tweet - thanks for linking.
Whilst pollution can affect the climate very quickly (volcanic eruptions for instance) it did seem a very quick effect.
As per my post, I suspect it contributed but may have not been the may driver, we will need to see how subsequent years pan out.
Understanding various feedback loops is going to be key in how we progress with climate initiatives but it's not an easy thing to get right.
SB | | | |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 09:12 - May 31 with 918 views | StokieBlue |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 20:35 - May 30 by Swansea_Blue |
That would be expected, even if the degree to which it plays a role is under debate. Chuck sh*t up into the atmosphere and it's going to lower the energy reaching the surface of the earth. It's well known from observed volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo 1991 eruption, for example, is estimated to have cooled global temps by as much as 1.5°C for a while.
A mess indeed. I wonder at what point industrialists will swivel to make the case that we need more pollution, not less (ignoring the health impacts of course)... |
Indeed, Krakatoa resulted in a the cooling of the world for a number of years and the failing of harvests.
"A mess indeed. I wonder at what point industrialists will swivel to make the case that we need more pollution, not less (ignoring the health impacts of course)..."
Can almost guarantee someone is already saying this somewhere!
SB | | | |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 10:10 - May 31 with 867 views | NthQldITFC |
I remember reading about the shipping fuel change a while back and the idea that it could be responsible (or partly responsible) for the extraordinary - almost sci-fi-like - jump in sea surface temperatures which appears to have happened from March of last year:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Given that the data represented in that chart is, I think, an agglomeration of data from remote buoys and from ship-based data collection between the latitudes of 60° I wondered whether the data is flawed (because it was historically collected from areas of high, localised SO₂ concentrations - i.e. falsely low - and now it's coming from 'clearer' areas). It seems far too great and sudden a jump to be 'real' unless there has been a major tipping point type feedback event which would have been evident in other ways.
Hopefully that's the case, because otherwise that rapid rise and then settling down more or less 3SDs north of the +2SD line would seem to represent something major and undoubtedly utterly destabilising in the short term. The black line for this year looks like it's going to merge with the orange line from last year soon, and represent either a new relatively steady state, or a new uncorrupted baseline. Clearly the underlying 'slower' trend is also terrifying in its own right, even if that slowness is in reality ultra-fast in terms of nature's inability to absorb and compensate for our stupidity. |  |
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| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 10:53 - May 31 with 817 views | CoachRob |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 10:10 - May 31 by NthQldITFC |
I remember reading about the shipping fuel change a while back and the idea that it could be responsible (or partly responsible) for the extraordinary - almost sci-fi-like - jump in sea surface temperatures which appears to have happened from March of last year:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Given that the data represented in that chart is, I think, an agglomeration of data from remote buoys and from ship-based data collection between the latitudes of 60° I wondered whether the data is flawed (because it was historically collected from areas of high, localised SO₂ concentrations - i.e. falsely low - and now it's coming from 'clearer' areas). It seems far too great and sudden a jump to be 'real' unless there has been a major tipping point type feedback event which would have been evident in other ways.
Hopefully that's the case, because otherwise that rapid rise and then settling down more or less 3SDs north of the +2SD line would seem to represent something major and undoubtedly utterly destabilising in the short term. The black line for this year looks like it's going to merge with the orange line from last year soon, and represent either a new relatively steady state, or a new uncorrupted baseline. Clearly the underlying 'slower' trend is also terrifying in its own right, even if that slowness is in reality ultra-fast in terms of nature's inability to absorb and compensate for our stupidity. |
We have CERES datasets to measure shortwave and longwave fluxes and the new CERESMIP which should improve modelling of the Earth energy balance that may help explain whether SO2 has any contribution to the SST rise in the North Atlantic. At the moment it is up for debate and as Gavin Schmidt has pointed out the models failed to predict the extremes we have observed.
It has to be mentioned we are putting ~38GtCO2/year into the atmosphere and we just experienced an El Nino year.
Agree it is terrifying seeing marine ecosystems collapsing under the strain of increasing SST's and the buffering capacity of the oceans is crucial to our future world. | | | |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 11:04 - May 31 with 774 views | NthQldITFC |
| Cutting pollution contributed to the record temperatures of 2023 on 10:53 - May 31 by CoachRob |
We have CERES datasets to measure shortwave and longwave fluxes and the new CERESMIP which should improve modelling of the Earth energy balance that may help explain whether SO2 has any contribution to the SST rise in the North Atlantic. At the moment it is up for debate and as Gavin Schmidt has pointed out the models failed to predict the extremes we have observed.
It has to be mentioned we are putting ~38GtCO2/year into the atmosphere and we just experienced an El Nino year.
Agree it is terrifying seeing marine ecosystems collapsing under the strain of increasing SST's and the buffering capacity of the oceans is crucial to our future world. |
Thanks Rob - I've got lots more things to look up and fail to remember a few days later now! (I used to head lot of footballs away.) | |
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