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So this is a ranking of all the Ipswich Town players and managers in 2021/22, done using average points scored in games they started divided by average points scored in games they didn't start.
1 George Edmundson 1.75 2 Wes Burns 1.705882353 3 Janoi Donacien 1.6 4 Kayden Jackson 1.519480519 Kieran McKenna 1.413793103 5 Tom Carroll 1.295454545 6 Sone Aluko 1.236467236 7 Sam Morsy 1.228163993 8 Bersant Celina 1.121212121 9 Christian Walton 1.100346021 10 Dominic Thompson 1.07826087 11 James Norwood 1.055555556 12 Tyreeq Bakinson 1.047619048 13 Conor Chaplin 1.027777778 Ipswich 1 (technically this should be infinity) 14 Macauley Bonne 0.99204244 15 Elkan Baggott 0.985074627 16 Matt Penney 0.976744186 17 Lee Evans 0.967741935 18 Luke Woolfenden 0.96 19 Vaclav Hladky 0.908805031 20 Joe Pigott 0.9 21 Toto Nsiala 0.9 22 Hayden Coulson 0.860215054 Paul Cook 0.81627907 23 Kane Vincent-Young 0.795454545 24 Scott Fraser 0.733153639 25 Kyle Edwards 0.725677831 26 Cameron Burgess 0.712962963 27 Bailey Clements 0.636363636 28 Idris El Mizouni 0.421568627 John McGreal 0.421568627 29 Rekeem Harper 0.298507463 30 Louie Barry 0 31 Armando Dobra 0
Only includes players who played at least 90 minutes of league games.
1. Janoi Donacien - was probably our second-best player at the start of the season after Bonne, solid in defence at right-back and also providing some great assists. But it was in the switch to three at the back when he really shone through, and McKenna has effectively invented a position (CB/RB) because he's so good at playing it. Wes Burns wouldn't be anywhere near as good without Donacien behind him. 2. Sam Morsy - massively bigged up by Paul Cook before his arrival, and was one of our best performers immediately. Still wasn't really as good as we'd expected until McKenna arrived and converted him into a driving midfielder, and is now perhaps our most important player as we always struggle considerably without him. He and Evans could be the best midfield pairing in the league, and complement each other perfectly. 3. Christian Walton - solid and dependable between the sticks, and our best keeper since Bialkowski. Has made many great saves, rarely makes mistakes, and is now the goalkeeper with the record for the longest time without conceding for Ipswich. Cook probably never intended on signing him but did due to Hladky's struggles, and he has been superb. 4. Wes Burns - a fantastic player to watch, able to beat his man so easily, and second-top scorer at the club, despite playing as a wing-back. His best goal was probably against Gillingham, but his performance on Burns Night stands out as his overall best. Misses out on a higher ranking because he has been a little inconsistent. Donacien also plays a huge role in his success. 5. George Edmundson - a very consistent defender and a great signing who is unlucky to only place fifth due to other players also being so outstanding. His introduction was important to the reduction in goals conceded at the start of the year. However, he was one of the few to play less well under McKenna than Cook, but still was crucial to all the many clean sheets. 6. Luke Woolfenden - a disappointing start to the season under Cook left him out in the cold once Edmundson was fit and looked certain to leave before John McGreal put him back into the team, and has now started every match under McKenna. Has probably been the most consistent performer in that time, and is playing better than ever before. It's great to still have an academy player in the team. 7. Macauley Bonne - it is such a shame he only ranks here because at the start of the season he was so good I was wondering if he could still be player of the season if he was recalled in January, but his current scoring form has really let him down. 11 goals quickly at the start of the year made him by far the best player at the time, and his goals against MK Dons and Wycombe stand out. But the Sheffield Wednesday moment was his finest. I still think we should sign him permanently next season. 8. Bersant Celina - not as good as we were expecting, but while Celina was inconsistent he still produced some moments of pure class, none better than the goal against Crewe, but also with some fantastic assists. Like many, has improved under McKenna, who appears to want to sign him permanently next year. And so he should. 9. Conor Chaplin - it seems very harsh to rank the best finisher at the club and third-top scorer only ninth, but it just shows how many other players have been great this year. After taking a while to get into the side, he was the first player to make the number 10 spot his own, and was unlucky to lose it. His goal against Portsmouth was probably his best. Has been a little inconsistent under McKenna. 10. Sone Aluko - after most considered him to be our worst signing before a ball was kicked, Aluko changed people's minds with his brace in the Cambridge game and became a key player for Paul Cook. Started brilliantly under McKenna with some classy performances, and while he has been unlucky not to play more, he is great whenever he does. 11. Lee Evans - signed to be our captain, but after a good pre-season he had a horrible start to the season, which probably forced Cook to sign Morsy. But alongside Morsy he was a new player, scoring a hattrick against Doncaster. He was another to improve under McKenna and allows Morsy to get forward more by playing deeper, but unfortunately has been out for some time with an injury. 12. Tyreeq Bakinson - the top 11 were great but there is a bit of a gap now towards those who had 'average' seasons. I was impressed by Bakinson, who is perfect backup for Evans and plays the deeper role well. We should sign him permanently. 13. Cameron Burgess - had a great start to the season alongside and was fantastic against Lincoln, but his form dropped and was replaced by Nsiala after some poor performances. Didn't become a regular in the side for a long time due to the great form of the main three centre-backs, but since he came in for Edmundson he has found his form again. 14. James Norwood - perhaps a little generous, but after a good assist against Morecambe he barely featured again under Cook and was transfer listed, before coming back into the fold under McGreal and scoring four goals in four games. Disappeared a little again under McKenna but has rarely been played in the centre and did well when he did. I doubt he will be with us next year. 15. Dominic Thompson - None of the left-backs have really had an amazing season, but Thompson has been the pick of the bunch and is solid defensively, if not quite as good going forwards. Has made a few mistakes, but still might be worth signing next year. I suspect we will look for someone more attacking (could we get Garbutt?) 16. Kayden Jackson - After being among the bomb squad at the start of the year, Jackson did make it out and back into Cook's first team, but was only making substitute appearances and rarely making an impression. Looked set to leave in January but was kept on and came good under McKenna, with a wonderful performance against Burton and two other goals. Seems to be staying. 17. Toto Nsiala - the much-maligned Nsiala is the highest-ranked player no longer at the club after being sold in January, but during his time in the team he did a good job, and played a role in the improved defensive performances initially. But he isn't as good as his four CB counterparts so it was the right decision to let him go, and it is a shame his final two games were the two shockers at Charlton and Barrow. 18. Kyle Edwards - probably our most exciting player burst onto the scene at the start of the year and was outstanding against Cheltenham and MK Dons. But after an injury, he never rediscovered that form and after a run of games in which he produced some good moments but no end product, he dropped out of the side, and doesn't fit with McKenna's formation. But he should stay, and I could see him playing the Burns role on the left next year. 19. Matt Penney - was signed as a backup leftback but with injuries to Coulson he ended up playing a lot more than expected, and generally was very solid, if a little weak in defence. After one shocker at Plymouth, he was transfer listed before a brief renaissance under McGreal and McKenna, and has been unlucky to barely play since. Still sufficient backup for next year, and might get the last few games in the side. 20. Scott Fraser - one of the disappointments of the year was Fraser, one of the best attacking midfielders in the league last season but generally very quiet this year, rarely having much impact on games and often being played out wide by Cook, where he was ineffective. Sold in January, but we actually made a profit from Fraser. 21. Hayden Coulson - it is a shame that injuries ruined his season because on the few occasions that Coulson played for us he was very good, with the assist against Lincoln his finest moment. Now playing in the championship, and it was possibly a mistake to let him go, but his low ranking here is down to a lack of games. 22. Idris El Mizouni - again, a player who is ranked outside the top 20 because of a lack of games, but has impressed when he played, including one great goal against Oldham. It is perhaps surprising that Cook kept him in the summer cull, but it remains to be seen whether or not he is considered good enough to be the Morsy backup next year. 23. Joe Pigott - perhaps the biggest disappointment of the new signings in the summer was Pigott, who scored 20 for Wimbledon last year and seemed like a great signing, but has had a poor season in which he has scored only twice and has never found form. He is contracted for next year and should come good at some point, but McKenna may decide to sell him. 24. Bailey Clements - got a surprise run of games in the side after Cook decided Penney wasn't good enough, and his first against Oxford was outstanding. But after that he went backwards and had some difficult games before being replaced again when McGreal took over. I don't know how well he has done on loan at Stevenage. 25. Tom Carroll - has done quite well considered he was never really signed to be anything more than backup, and actually we have a great points per game record when he plays, but Carroll has almost always looked a bit of a weak link when he has played, and I would be surprised if his contract is extended. 26. Vaclav Hladky - After being signed as the first-choice keeper, he looked good in pre-season, but had a bit of a nightmare at the start of the season, making mistakes and causing Cook to sign Walton at the end of the transfer window. He still made a few appearances when Walton was injured and did slightly better, but I think he is decent backup at this level and could improve significantly under McKenna in the future. 27. Rekeem Harper - another disappointment was Harper, who looked great alongside Evans in pre-season but struggled in the first six matches before being replaced by Carroll and never started again in the league before being loaned to Crewe in January. There is potential there, and we should keep him next year, but Harper has had a poor season.
So there is my ranking of the players, with the likes of Armando Dobra, Louie Barry and Cameron Humphreys missed out due to them not playing enough to get a ranking.
[Post edited 5 Apr 19:14]
Prediction
Prediction Logged by at 13:27:53 Oxford United v Ipswich Town prediction logged
Assuming we stay in league one for next season, I think we have a very good chance of winning the league. The core of our squad will be exactly the same for next year (the only important players we are losing are Celina and Bonne), and we will have the whole summer transfer window to strengthen around the edges, without needing time to 'gel' as the first XI will mostly be the same. We also have a great manager in Kieran McKenna who will only get better in the coming seasons as he is a rookie now. This assumes he will keep the same formation, but other formations could work well too if he mixed it up.
Goalkeeper - Walton is nailed-on as first choice, one of the best goalkeepers in the league if not the best. And Hladky is sufficient backup, he had a shaky start to the season but did well for Salford last year. I would imagine Holy will leave, but if we kept him instead of Hladky he would also be sufficient backup.
Centre-Backs - The current back three of Woolfenden, Edmundson and Donacien have just beaten the club record for clean sheets so I don't think we really need to sign a new first choice CB. Cameron Burgess is waiting as fourth choice and Corrie Ndaba would be back as fifth-choice, and they would probably be good enough as backup, but if we wanted to we could sell Burgess and sign a replacement.
Right Wing-Backs - Wes Burns is among the best in the league, particularly when supported by Donacien, and Kane Vincent-Young is sufficient backup; remember how good he was in 2019. No changes required here.
Left Wing-Backs - This is the only place where we need to sign a new starting player, as Dominic Thompson will be gone. I actually thought Hayden Coulson did very well here, so if we can get someone of that quality without injury problems we should be happy. Matt Penney is good enough as backup, Myles Kenlock will be released, and Bailey Clements needs another loan.
Centre-Midfielders - Sam Morsy and Lee Evans are the perfect midfield duo and should definitely stay as first choice next year, but we probably do need to strengthen their backup. Bakinson will be gone back to Bristol City, and we will probably release Tom Carroll. I think we need to sign maybe a clear Morsy backup and a clear Evans backup, unless El Mizouni is ready to step up as the Morsy backup. We should keep Rekeem Harper as well, even if he gets another loan, and Cameron Humphreys may be on the fringes too.
Attacking-Midfielders - we have Conor Chaplin and Sone Aluko (definitely deserves a new deal) here, and they are good enough to be starting players. We will lose Bersant Celina back to Dijon and probably won't be able to sign him permanently given the wages, so another signing here is a possibility. I also think Kyle Edwards still has a part to play and when we play wide players in the front three he could come into the team, so I don't think we necessarily need a signing here.
Strikers - despite his current poor form, I would definitely sign Macauley Bonne, as we know how good we can be and we know that he would want to stay at the club until he retires. I would also keep Joe Pigott as he will surely come good at some point. Then I would keep one of Jackson and Norwood and release the other, and sign one new striker to compete for the starting one or two places. Alternatively, if Tyreece Simpson stays, we could keep him and release Jackson and Norwood. Or maybe we don't even need the new striker as all four of our current strikers have shown they are good enough at this level, and will find their form with time.
Prediction
Prediction Logged by at 14:27:39 Morecambe v Ipswich Town prediction logged
With McKenna in charge, not including the Gillingham games, we got three wins and two losses, equating to nine points.
In the equivalent fixtures under Cook, we got one win, two draws and two losses, equating to five points.
Therefore, McKenna has brought an improvement of 1.8x to the team.
Cook scored 27 points in his 20 games as boss. If McKenna had been in charge in the first 20 games instead, we would therefore have scored 27x1.8 points, which is 48.6. Add that to the 15 points scored under McKenna and the two under John McGreal (who we can pretend took over for three games anyway), and that is 65.6. In other words, top of the league by just over three points.
But what about the remaining 16 games? Well, in the reverse fixtures, Cook scored 22 points from 14 games, with Charlton and Wigan ignored as McGreal played those, and also Sunderland because McGreal played that reverse fixture. So McKenna, by this estimation, should score 1.8x22 points, which is 39.6 to the end of the season. And assuming he mirrors McGreal (he is actually probably an improvement), that is 40.6 total. So we would finish with 84.6 points, which last season was good enough for third.
Obviously all this is an estimation based on five games, so is difficult to say if it is accurate. But I think it paints a positive picture of the rest of the season and shows McKenna to be an excellent manager.
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