|Phoenix From the Flames|
Written by SaleAway on Friday, 17th Nov 2017 15:37
The Opta stat that Town had won more points than any other EFL team from losing positions surprised me somewhat as the view on the TWTD Forum and amongst fans I've spoken to is that when we go behind we lose control a bit and tend towards hoofball.
My doubts about how valuable this statistic was led me to think about whether it was just that we went behind a lot (10 times out of our 15 games this season) or whether in fact we were phoenix-like in our ability to recover.
So, to assess this I analysed the entire Championship, calculating percentage of points won from those available having gone behind. Obviously, a team at the top will be losing fewer games but is that because they never go behind or because they are strong enough to come back? This blog highlights some (vaguely) interesting findings.
We are top of the league!
It's perhaps not a surprise to see a Mick McCarthy and a Neil Warnock team up there. Both these managers are famous for producing hard-working, never-say-die teams that are hard to beat. These stats would tend to bear out those reputations.
Big clubs that underachieve
What else do these teams have in common? Is it mental weakness or is it perhaps that they have a fanbase that are conditioned to expect success and turn on the team quickly if they go behind? On that note, is it significant that ITFC's three wins from behind have all come away from home? Does that more unconditional away support help lift the team more than some of the negativity at Portman Road?
But what about the Scum?
Can this tell us anything?
There are a few outliers here. Teams that are low on my table but high in the league or vice versa. From the top of the table, it's probably not helpful because the sample size of losing games is too low to be conclusive.
But at the bottom there are a couple of interesting ones. Sunderland are rooted to the bottom of the table, but when you delve into their stats, they've gone behind 13 times and have five draws out of that.
Their problem is turning draws into wins, but something tells me that there is enough heart there for them to extricate themselves from the foot of the table.
Bolton on the other hand, are second bottom of both tables, the only way is down! What do you think? Does the phoenix rating tell us anything?
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