| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) 11:11 - Mar 26 with 6114 views | Steve_M |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:12 - Mar 26 with 2567 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:06 - Mar 26 by Steve_M |
It can be extended once which it inevitably will be so three or four probably, we'll then be somewhere between five and seven years on from the 2016 referendum. I still don't think the trade offs of any future relationship have been adequately addressed in government, let alone the country as a whole.
So it is both a long time and nowhere near enough for what is needed. |
Agreed. The actual shape of a future deal has hardly been touched upon in public discourse, let alone any consensus formed or its viability explored with the EU or other potential partners (e.g. EFTA, the USA, China). |  |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:24 - Mar 26 with 2541 views | Steve_M |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:12 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
Agreed. The actual shape of a future deal has hardly been touched upon in public discourse, let alone any consensus formed or its viability explored with the EU or other potential partners (e.g. EFTA, the USA, China). |
I think that a long extension to Article 50 (two years minimum) is the best way forward. It allows that discussion whilst still retaining the option to remain in the EU should that be what the country wants in time.
That does mean continued uncertainty as to they future relationship but retains the upsides for business of free movement of goods and services rather than uncertainty with restrictions, particularly on services which May's deal has obtusely ignored.
The question that the referendum failed to ask was whether a notional increase in 'sovereignty' was worth this level of economic cost. Ignoring the downside, and not specifying what 'Leave' really meant, produced a different answer. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:27 - Mar 26 with 2530 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:09 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Let's put our cards on the table, as a defined option remain has always had the broadest support. Leave is such an ill-defined and fractured group that no one version of leave comes close to having widespread backing. |
Remain were allowed to run as a unified bloc, but without any manifesto to clarify their position in the event of victory. Part of the reason for their win was that it is much easier to campaign negatively (how bad/expensive/wasteful/domineering the EU is) than it is to put forward positive points. It also helps with the claims by cdertain Leave factions that their views represent the whole.
However, it is not entirely fair to set out the whole of Remain in opposition to each individual Leave faction. There is a spectrum of opinion there, too, with many advocating a push for reform (or return of powers) had we voted to stay in. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:31 - Mar 26 with 2521 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:27 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
Remain were allowed to run as a unified bloc, but without any manifesto to clarify their position in the event of victory. Part of the reason for their win was that it is much easier to campaign negatively (how bad/expensive/wasteful/domineering the EU is) than it is to put forward positive points. It also helps with the claims by cdertain Leave factions that their views represent the whole.
However, it is not entirely fair to set out the whole of Remain in opposition to each individual Leave faction. There is a spectrum of opinion there, too, with many advocating a push for reform (or return of powers) had we voted to stay in. |
Although on the remain side no promise of reform has been made, and there is relative unity in wanting to stay and being indifferent to reform and wanting to stay and wanting to push for reform. Contrast that with the different potential versions of Brexit and it's a world apart. Remain is a comparatively unified position, leave simply isn't. |  |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:31 - Mar 26 with 2524 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:24 - Mar 26 by Steve_M |
I think that a long extension to Article 50 (two years minimum) is the best way forward. It allows that discussion whilst still retaining the option to remain in the EU should that be what the country wants in time.
That does mean continued uncertainty as to they future relationship but retains the upsides for business of free movement of goods and services rather than uncertainty with restrictions, particularly on services which May's deal has obtusely ignored.
The question that the referendum failed to ask was whether a notional increase in 'sovereignty' was worth this level of economic cost. Ignoring the downside, and not specifying what 'Leave' really meant, produced a different answer. |
I'm entirely in agreement with that. However, from a practical point of view, can we continue fighting the same in-out battles for another two years, as normal politics and functional government steadily disintegrates? | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:44 - Mar 26 with 2495 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:31 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Although on the remain side no promise of reform has been made, and there is relative unity in wanting to stay and being indifferent to reform and wanting to stay and wanting to push for reform. Contrast that with the different potential versions of Brexit and it's a world apart. Remain is a comparatively unified position, leave simply isn't. |
Problem with the mistake having been made at the time, is it becomes very difficult to row back upon.
Had Cameron not been overconfident about winning the Referendum (which I think he probably would have, without Johnson's intervention), he ought to have made sure by forcing Leave to set out their stall beforehand, whereupon the public would have seen the squabbling and the noisy extremes. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:45 - Mar 26 with 2495 views | WeWereZombies |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 11:33 - Mar 26 by StokieBlue |
That's true, it does seem to make it more likely the withdrawal will get through but they need 150 MPs to change their mind and the ERG+DUP is only 90 and not all of them are onboard with voting it through.
I'm hopefully the indicative votes will show a path that can get a majority but maybe that's me being too optimistic given the total shower everything has been thus far.
This also seems a bit deluded from John Baron:
"A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
Surely given the way demographics and opinions have moved a GE would result in more MPs less likely to implement the referendum result. The GE would also likely be fought on a platform of a second referendum from some sides.
SB [Post edited 26 Mar 2019 11:34]
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The first sentence of your final paragraph does not sound too democratic to me. In a representative democracy surely we want our MPs to represent their constituencies?
It is borne out by some of article from today's BBC website though:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47693645
Disappointed that John Curtice has found that Remain's lead is only just above the referendum result for Leave in 2016 and that the question of how a second referendum should be worded is vexed. But the British population have made progress in understanding the issues, I wonder how long the politicians will take to catch up? |  |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:59 - Mar 26 with 2473 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:44 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
Problem with the mistake having been made at the time, is it becomes very difficult to row back upon.
Had Cameron not been overconfident about winning the Referendum (which I think he probably would have, without Johnson's intervention), he ought to have made sure by forcing Leave to set out their stall beforehand, whereupon the public would have seen the squabbling and the noisy extremes. |
Cameron's arrogance caused all sorts of issues. Not setting a higher benchmark than one vote above 50% was a big one, no minimum turnout either. He used once in a lifetime style rhetoric because he expected to win and wanted a narrative that shut down those agitating to leave for a good while. Now that rhetoric has made a second referendum more or less politically impossible, at least on the Tory side. That's before, as you rightly point out, any expectation that leave would put forward a position or a number of concrete leave options. The most important democratic event of our time was designed and implemented with staggering levels of incompetent. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:03 - Mar 26 with 2467 views | Steve_M |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:31 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
I'm entirely in agreement with that. However, from a practical point of view, can we continue fighting the same in-out battles for another two years, as normal politics and functional government steadily disintegrates? |
On your last point, I think we will do if May's deal goes through or if we leave without a deal; neither is an end state despite what their respective proponents might claim.
The only thing that prevents that is revoking Article 50. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:07 - Mar 26 with 2456 views | WeWereZombies |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:59 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Cameron's arrogance caused all sorts of issues. Not setting a higher benchmark than one vote above 50% was a big one, no minimum turnout either. He used once in a lifetime style rhetoric because he expected to win and wanted a narrative that shut down those agitating to leave for a good while. Now that rhetoric has made a second referendum more or less politically impossible, at least on the Tory side. That's before, as you rightly point out, any expectation that leave would put forward a position or a number of concrete leave options. The most important democratic event of our time was designed and implemented with staggering levels of incompetent. |
OK, firstly the final word in your post should be 'incompetence'. Secondly, regrettably what Cameron took as a few 'fruitcakes and loons' was actually a significant proportion of voters (or people who were influenced by them) so I see the initial problem as being one of engagement in that the Tories did not truly represent either the 'progressive' wing of their party or the 'UKIP lite' element of their voter under Cameron. Perhaps it would have been better for all if more than a couple of MPs had defected and UKIP has formed a bloc of thirty or forty MPs in the Commons who just agitated for a referendum without actually getting one. This would have left 'Leavers' satisfied that they had a target without having to act upon their assertions and the rest of us could have got on with doing the real work. But hindsight is a wonderful thing etc. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:07 - Mar 26 with 2451 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 12:59 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Cameron's arrogance caused all sorts of issues. Not setting a higher benchmark than one vote above 50% was a big one, no minimum turnout either. He used once in a lifetime style rhetoric because he expected to win and wanted a narrative that shut down those agitating to leave for a good while. Now that rhetoric has made a second referendum more or less politically impossible, at least on the Tory side. That's before, as you rightly point out, any expectation that leave would put forward a position or a number of concrete leave options. The most important democratic event of our time was designed and implemented with staggering levels of incompetent. |
Have no problem with the turnout (which, at 72.2%, was pretty good) or the 50% threshold. It was Leave being allowed to get away with pretty much whatever they wanted and a hubristically poor Remain campaign (at least at national level) which were the issue. That and the way the process has been conducted following a pretty narrow result. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:08 - Mar 26 with 2446 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:07 - Mar 26 by WeWereZombies |
OK, firstly the final word in your post should be 'incompetence'. Secondly, regrettably what Cameron took as a few 'fruitcakes and loons' was actually a significant proportion of voters (or people who were influenced by them) so I see the initial problem as being one of engagement in that the Tories did not truly represent either the 'progressive' wing of their party or the 'UKIP lite' element of their voter under Cameron. Perhaps it would have been better for all if more than a couple of MPs had defected and UKIP has formed a bloc of thirty or forty MPs in the Commons who just agitated for a referendum without actually getting one. This would have left 'Leavers' satisfied that they had a target without having to act upon their assertions and the rest of us could have got on with doing the real work. But hindsight is a wonderful thing etc. |
Posting on my phone, hence the typo. I don't disagree with the rest of your post. Cameron was a terrible PM, rivalled only by May in his ineptitude. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:32 - Mar 26 with 2406 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:07 - Mar 26 by WeWereZombies |
OK, firstly the final word in your post should be 'incompetence'. Secondly, regrettably what Cameron took as a few 'fruitcakes and loons' was actually a significant proportion of voters (or people who were influenced by them) so I see the initial problem as being one of engagement in that the Tories did not truly represent either the 'progressive' wing of their party or the 'UKIP lite' element of their voter under Cameron. Perhaps it would have been better for all if more than a couple of MPs had defected and UKIP has formed a bloc of thirty or forty MPs in the Commons who just agitated for a referendum without actually getting one. This would have left 'Leavers' satisfied that they had a target without having to act upon their assertions and the rest of us could have got on with doing the real work. But hindsight is a wonderful thing etc. |
I think there was also a significant element of the "left behind" protest vote. It was certainly pushed at the time, setting up an atmosphere of "the People versus the EU/Westminster Elite". For years, the media had concentrated on the EU's failings and foibles, rather than any advantages of membership.
It was no coincidence that hot spots of Leave included economically depressed areas such as the North East and South Wales, or backwaters like Lincolnshire and the South West.
Unfortunately, the Remainers - seen as the Establishment - couldn't suddenly turn around years of perceived neglect and the (Eton and The City) Leavers were able to use revolutionary rhetoric against them. Especially as Corbyn was (naturally) unwilling to rally the traditional working class to a cause he doesn't personally believe in. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:37 - Mar 26 with 2393 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:08 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Posting on my phone, hence the typo. I don't disagree with the rest of your post. Cameron was a terrible PM, rivalled only by May in his ineptitude. |
I think this issue has bitten every politician who has come into contact with it. Rees-Mogg has now copped it and even Farage has repeatedly failed in his attempts to get into the HoC or secure himself a gong. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:38 - Mar 26 with 2387 views | lowhouseblue |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:32 - Mar 26 by Guthrum |
I think there was also a significant element of the "left behind" protest vote. It was certainly pushed at the time, setting up an atmosphere of "the People versus the EU/Westminster Elite". For years, the media had concentrated on the EU's failings and foibles, rather than any advantages of membership.
It was no coincidence that hot spots of Leave included economically depressed areas such as the North East and South Wales, or backwaters like Lincolnshire and the South West.
Unfortunately, the Remainers - seen as the Establishment - couldn't suddenly turn around years of perceived neglect and the (Eton and The City) Leavers were able to use revolutionary rhetoric against them. Especially as Corbyn was (naturally) unwilling to rally the traditional working class to a cause he doesn't personally believe in. |
agreed. but I fear the "the People versus the EU/Westminster Elite" narrative hasn't exactly been dispelled by the actual progress of brexit. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:40 - Mar 26 with 2377 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:38 - Mar 26 by lowhouseblue |
agreed. but I fear the "the People versus the EU/Westminster Elite" narrative hasn't exactly been dispelled by the actual progress of brexit. |
Which is part of the reason why those who agitated for Brexit have done their utmost to keep their fingerprints off it. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:47 - Mar 26 with 2360 views | Guthrum |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:38 - Mar 26 by lowhouseblue |
agreed. but I fear the "the People versus the EU/Westminster Elite" narrative hasn't exactly been dispelled by the actual progress of brexit. |
Being a construct, it has no appreciation for the practical difficulties of the situation. Like so much revolutionary rhetoric, it is entirely black-and-white: If you aren't entirely for us, you're a flinching coward or a sneering traitor.
The "Westminster Elite" is a straw horse which can always be propped up as a target for angst at the world not working how people would like. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:47 - Mar 26 with 2360 views | lowhouseblue |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:40 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Which is part of the reason why those who agitated for Brexit have done their utmost to keep their fingerprints off it. |
you think boris is waiting his chance to be reborn as trumpesque anti-parliament, anti-establishment hero? we have an old etonian populist uprising against the elite to look forward to. oh joy. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:52 - Mar 26 with 2339 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:47 - Mar 26 by lowhouseblue |
you think boris is waiting his chance to be reborn as trumpesque anti-parliament, anti-establishment hero? we have an old etonian populist uprising against the elite to look forward to. oh joy. |
There's no doubt he's poised to try and get his grubby hands on the top job when May inevitably stands down.
There's a lot of talk that she'll announce her resignation date tomorrow and put her deal back for another vote on Thursday. Some of the ERG are turning and I think she senses that a combination of seeing the outcome of the indicative votes and her saying she's leaving will get enough people to reluctantly support her deal. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:01 - Mar 26 with 2306 views | Steve_M |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 13:52 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
There's no doubt he's poised to try and get his grubby hands on the top job when May inevitably stands down.
There's a lot of talk that she'll announce her resignation date tomorrow and put her deal back for another vote on Thursday. Some of the ERG are turning and I think she senses that a combination of seeing the outcome of the indicative votes and her saying she's leaving will get enough people to reluctantly support her deal. |
A deal between May and the ERG? I mean it's a question of who is going to renege on it most quickly isn't it? | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:11 - Mar 26 with 2288 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:01 - Mar 26 by Steve_M |
A deal between May and the ERG? I mean it's a question of who is going to renege on it most quickly isn't it? |
Well this is the thing, can they trust each other? The ERG will have one eye on manipulating or doing away with the Withdrawal Agreement once May is gone, whilst May will likely use her deal getting through as a vindication of her approach and decide to stay to see it through. It's an absolute mess. There must be some moderate Tories now at a point where actually they hope the party does split. It's not sustainable. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:23 - Mar 26 with 2271 views | Steve_M |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:11 - Mar 26 by Herbivore |
Well this is the thing, can they trust each other? The ERG will have one eye on manipulating or doing away with the Withdrawal Agreement once May is gone, whilst May will likely use her deal getting through as a vindication of her approach and decide to stay to see it through. It's an absolute mess. There must be some moderate Tories now at a point where actually they hope the party does split. It's not sustainable. |
I think this is accurate here:
There's more on offer now than May's deal or no deal. The revoke petition and the march on Saturday have helped embolden MPs. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:33 - Mar 26 with 2253 views | Herbivore |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:23 - Mar 26 by Steve_M |
I think this is accurate here:
There's more on offer now than May's deal or no deal. The revoke petition and the march on Saturday have helped embolden MPs. |
Yep, the moderate Tories now know that it's not May's deal or no deal and that could lure them away. She only really has one shot at getting her deal through and the DUP aren't budging, they're now saying they'd rather a long Brexit delay than her deal. Others might think the same. | |
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| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:40 - Mar 26 with 2238 views | Pecker |
Surly they all just have to vote Mays deal through. Not ideal, but just get it over with. |  | | |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 14:41 - Mar 26 with 2237 views | Pinewoodblue |
| I see JRM has become a traitorous remoaner then (n/t) on 11:33 - Mar 26 by StokieBlue |
That's true, it does seem to make it more likely the withdrawal will get through but they need 150 MPs to change their mind and the ERG+DUP is only 90 and not all of them are onboard with voting it through.
I'm hopefully the indicative votes will show a path that can get a majority but maybe that's me being too optimistic given the total shower everything has been thus far.
This also seems a bit deluded from John Baron:
"A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
Surely given the way demographics and opinions have moved a GE would result in more MPs less likely to implement the referendum result. The GE would also likely be fought on a platform of a second referendum from some sides.
SB [Post edited 26 Mar 2019 11:34]
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May lost the last vote by 149 so needs 75 to switch sides yon scrape through. |  |
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