| Covid deaths. 18:32 - Feb 2 with 3343 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Does anybody know why finally the BBC make a point of saying that not all of the reported deaths will have died because of Covid (for about the last month)? Secondly why can't they give us the number of people that have actually died as a result of Covid?
For the avoidance of doubt these are questions, there is no agenda. Sad this has to be pointed out but there you go. |  |
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| Covid deaths. on 22:20 - Feb 2 with 697 views | Churchman |
| Covid deaths. on 21:46 - Feb 2 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Why would I need to look at excess deaths to know that excessive people have died and why would I be having that discussion at a wake? It feels like you are ascribing pre determined value to my question. |
I don’t disagree with you at all. The unnecessary waste of lives through poor decision making and yawning incompetence is horrendous. I hope lessons are learned from this, but given the nature of politics, I’m not optimistic.
I believe though that measuring excess deaths over the usual average in a year and by month is the only way to see the true ghastly effect of C-19. I was looking at the attached today. I’ve no idea of it’s validity or how it compares to others, but I found it interesting. For example, it shows me how lacking the UKs response was in early 2020, despite the warnings from other countries in Europe who were ‘ahead’ of us.
It also confirms to me that our actions compared to our direct peers, France and Germany, was poor, even if the booze ups in No10 were better. As I say, I’ve only read the one article today, so I’m not hanging my hat on it.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
In terms of stats on things like this, I’ve always held the view that however flawed the measurement method, as long as it’s consistent it’ll show trends which is crucial.
I guess I am a bit cynical about what goes into death certificates since the joke worthy shambles of my mother’s 4 years ago. But that’s a sample size of one so while that’s how I feel, my views are not really valid. |  | | |
| Covid deaths. on 22:48 - Feb 2 with 651 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Covid deaths. on 22:20 - Feb 2 by Churchman |
I don’t disagree with you at all. The unnecessary waste of lives through poor decision making and yawning incompetence is horrendous. I hope lessons are learned from this, but given the nature of politics, I’m not optimistic.
I believe though that measuring excess deaths over the usual average in a year and by month is the only way to see the true ghastly effect of C-19. I was looking at the attached today. I’ve no idea of it’s validity or how it compares to others, but I found it interesting. For example, it shows me how lacking the UKs response was in early 2020, despite the warnings from other countries in Europe who were ‘ahead’ of us.
It also confirms to me that our actions compared to our direct peers, France and Germany, was poor, even if the booze ups in No10 were better. As I say, I’ve only read the one article today, so I’m not hanging my hat on it.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
In terms of stats on things like this, I’ve always held the view that however flawed the measurement method, as long as it’s consistent it’ll show trends which is crucial.
I guess I am a bit cynical about what goes into death certificates since the joke worthy shambles of my mother’s 4 years ago. But that’s a sample size of one so while that’s how I feel, my views are not really valid. |
There are some very vaccine hesitant Eastern European countries near the top of that list!
On a related note and after discussions on here I see that the UK is in negative excess death territory for January....small mercies!
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhN
Click on 'all persons.' | |
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| Covid deaths. on 08:07 - Feb 3 with 571 views | Churchman |
Ta. That’s really interesting. The April-June 2020 section of the graph looks particularly scary. I am guessing that the negative excess death territory for this January may be due to reduction in flu deaths? Perhaps due to less social contact, vaccination or people getting Covid instead? I’ve no idea, but I’m sure proper analysts who know what they’re doing will have the answers to that. | | | |
| Covid deaths. on 08:18 - Feb 3 with 549 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid deaths. on 08:07 - Feb 3 by Churchman |
Ta. That’s really interesting. The April-June 2020 section of the graph looks particularly scary. I am guessing that the negative excess death territory for this January may be due to reduction in flu deaths? Perhaps due to less social contact, vaccination or people getting Covid instead? I’ve no idea, but I’m sure proper analysts who know what they’re doing will have the answers to that. |
You're likely correct that any lower excess deaths in January would be driven by the lack of flu deaths which itself is driven by the restrictions in place around covid.
Flu has a R0 which is substantially lower than covid and this measures like masks are likely to be highly effective against flu transmission. There is also interested flu vaccination this year.
Worth noting that people don't get covid "instead" of flu and that they are two totally different things which don't give any cross virus immunity. In fact it's possible that both flu and covid can be present in a cell at the same time.
There is also some initial research which hints that having an IAV (influenza A) infection before covid actually makes the covid infection worse but I've not read much of the literature on that.
SB |  | | |
| Covid deaths. on 08:41 - Feb 3 with 516 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Because most of the deaths are due to underlying conditions and secondary infections - and are limited to deaths within a month of Covid being identified on a death certificate that may have been filled out months after the person died. Any death occurring after one month from diagnosis are officially ignored to keep the numbers down. You are getting into a grey area as the thousands of people dying from other diseases and unable to access proper and early treatment due to Covid are also, in reality « Covid deaths ». The only true picture is to compare total deaths year on year. |  |
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| Covid deaths. on 09:01 - Feb 3 with 494 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Covid deaths. on 08:07 - Feb 3 by Churchman |
Ta. That’s really interesting. The April-June 2020 section of the graph looks particularly scary. I am guessing that the negative excess death territory for this January may be due to reduction in flu deaths? Perhaps due to less social contact, vaccination or people getting Covid instead? I’ve no idea, but I’m sure proper analysts who know what they’re doing will have the answers to that. |
I would hazard a guess that the increased number of deaths in vulnerable groups would have a bearing too in having effectively brought deaths forward by a few months or years so perhaps this trend of below average deaths will continue. | |
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| Covid deaths. on 09:28 - Feb 3 with 469 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid deaths. on 08:07 - Feb 3 by Churchman |
Ta. That’s really interesting. The April-June 2020 section of the graph looks particularly scary. I am guessing that the negative excess death territory for this January may be due to reduction in flu deaths? Perhaps due to less social contact, vaccination or people getting Covid instead? I’ve no idea, but I’m sure proper analysts who know what they’re doing will have the answers to that. |
With two of the last five years including Covid deaths the five year average is up. |  |
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| Covid deaths. on 10:15 - Feb 3 with 434 views | Churchman |
| Covid deaths. on 09:28 - Feb 3 by Pinewoodblue |
With two of the last five years including Covid deaths the five year average is up. |
Indeed it will be. However, I was assuming that for this pandemic you could only measure the ‘Covid years’ against the pre Covid ones. | | | |
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