| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:00 - Mar 21 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
The % chance of each points outcome won’t change if we win the next 3, it will just be the likelihood of us reaching those totals that changes (which isn’t quoted within itfcjoe’s post)
What would change the % however would be other sides dropping points unexpectedly. With that in mind I guess us winning on Saturday would probably have a small effect given we would be denying a competitor points, but probably not significant as those models will likely already be assuming a win in most of their scenario models (and in the 7 win case it’s already 100% baked in)
The short conclusion here is that it’s over, barring an improbable run or others teams suddenly sh*tting the bed left, right and centre [Post edited 21 Mar 2022 14:01]
|
I understand. I think I originally came to the conclusion in January that the maths were against us because of the many fewer points required by the opposition teams to reach what was thought of as the points needed. And since then the points needed has presumably increased because of the good form of teams around us, which has made our task even harder. And now we're starting to run out of games. [Post edited 21 Mar 2022 16:30]
|  |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
