| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... 11:46 - Mar 21 with 3461 views | itfcjoe |
75 points - 4W 2D 1L - 1%
76 points - 5W 2L or 4W 3D - 4-5%
77 points - 5W 1D 1L - 13%
78 points - 5W 2D - 29%
79 points - 6W 1L - 49%
80 points - 6W 1D - 73%
81 points - N/A
82 points - 7W - 97%
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:15 - Mar 21 with 1132 views | Ryorry |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:43 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I know you think that's an insult, but it is actually going to work out that way. Without relegation we wouldn't have got Gamechanger... or Ashton... or McKenna. It may have taken more years than any of us wanted, but I do feel we'll be coming back stronger. There's lots to be optimistic about. |
Fair point that - sometimes you need to touch rock bottom to be able to use it to push off onto heights you couldn't otherwise have reached 👠|  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:28 - Mar 21 with 1106 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:52 - Mar 21 by clive_baker |
Certainly highlights how shockingly bad our results were under Cook.
By the end of the season it'll be a full half season under KM. IF we do get to 75 points it would be a return of 46 points from his 23 games in charge, so 2 ppg. Over a season that's 92 points, which generally gets you top 2. It's a full 30 points (!) more than the same calculation based off Cook's 20 games in charge (1.35 pgg), which is firmly mid table form.
What a waste of a season. |
You can't judge it like that though. These "extrapolate it over a full season" posts do my nut in. It's nonsense. For starters McKenna didn't have the gelling issue. The team had played together ages and had got to know each others foibles by the time he came in. Would they have gelled quicker under McKenna? We'll never know, but then again, if we'd started with him instead of Cook we'd have a totally different team.
Equally, you can't simply extrapolate Cook's games over the rest of the season and declare that's what we'd have got had he stayed. There was another transfer window to come for starters - we've no idea which players he'd have got in to arrest the problem areas.
There are so many unknowns and differing factors it's far too simplistic to just extrapolate someone's results over a full season.
McKenna's done a fantastic job so far. Just leave it at that. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:32 - Mar 21 with 1098 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:28 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You can't judge it like that though. These "extrapolate it over a full season" posts do my nut in. It's nonsense. For starters McKenna didn't have the gelling issue. The team had played together ages and had got to know each others foibles by the time he came in. Would they have gelled quicker under McKenna? We'll never know, but then again, if we'd started with him instead of Cook we'd have a totally different team.
Equally, you can't simply extrapolate Cook's games over the rest of the season and declare that's what we'd have got had he stayed. There was another transfer window to come for starters - we've no idea which players he'd have got in to arrest the problem areas.
There are so many unknowns and differing factors it's far too simplistic to just extrapolate someone's results over a full season.
McKenna's done a fantastic job so far. Just leave it at that. |
He'd have shifted Woolfenden for a start.
Cook was absolute t0ss. Let's leave it at that. |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:33 - Mar 21 with 1100 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
We will probably win 5, draw 1 and lose 1. That would be annoyingly close. I think 75 points is usually enough as well to make the dance. |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:45 - Mar 21 with 1074 views | itfcjoe |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:28 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You can't judge it like that though. These "extrapolate it over a full season" posts do my nut in. It's nonsense. For starters McKenna didn't have the gelling issue. The team had played together ages and had got to know each others foibles by the time he came in. Would they have gelled quicker under McKenna? We'll never know, but then again, if we'd started with him instead of Cook we'd have a totally different team.
Equally, you can't simply extrapolate Cook's games over the rest of the season and declare that's what we'd have got had he stayed. There was another transfer window to come for starters - we've no idea which players he'd have got in to arrest the problem areas.
There are so many unknowns and differing factors it's far too simplistic to just extrapolate someone's results over a full season.
McKenna's done a fantastic job so far. Just leave it at that. |
Why didn't McKenna have any gelling issues? We had made a fundamental change from going from a back 4 to a back 3, and bringing in a player out from the cold to be one of the key men in it.
Cook had a similar problem last year when he came in and changed up a squad and made them worse | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:50 - Mar 21 with 1062 views | LankHenners |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:28 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You can't judge it like that though. These "extrapolate it over a full season" posts do my nut in. It's nonsense. For starters McKenna didn't have the gelling issue. The team had played together ages and had got to know each others foibles by the time he came in. Would they have gelled quicker under McKenna? We'll never know, but then again, if we'd started with him instead of Cook we'd have a totally different team.
Equally, you can't simply extrapolate Cook's games over the rest of the season and declare that's what we'd have got had he stayed. There was another transfer window to come for starters - we've no idea which players he'd have got in to arrest the problem areas.
There are so many unknowns and differing factors it's far too simplistic to just extrapolate someone's results over a full season.
McKenna's done a fantastic job so far. Just leave it at that. |
Surely by that argument Cook didn't have a gelling issue when he took over from Lambert so how come he didn't do any better, and in fact did slightly worse?
If we can say anything about McKenna's team since he's come in, it's that Cook's 'the individual errors won't change until we change the individuals' line was utter bollox (which it obviously was at the time he said it) so I don't really see how allowing Cook to get in more players would have made much of a difference. Indeed, McKenna's shown that the squad we'd assembled in the summer is good enough to perform at promotion-challenging if not winning level. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:51 - Mar 21 with 1055 views | Radlett_blue |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:45 - Mar 21 by itfcjoe |
Why didn't McKenna have any gelling issues? We had made a fundamental change from going from a back 4 to a back 3, and bringing in a player out from the cold to be one of the key men in it.
Cook had a similar problem last year when he came in and changed up a squad and made them worse |
Yes, the willingness of some to give Cook a "free pass" when he inherited a squad just outside the play-offs was rather odd. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:59 - Mar 21 with 1022 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:45 - Mar 21 by itfcjoe |
Why didn't McKenna have any gelling issues? We had made a fundamental change from going from a back 4 to a back 3, and bringing in a player out from the cold to be one of the key men in it.
Cook had a similar problem last year when he came in and changed up a squad and made them worse |
Eh?! 19 new players v one who was our player had just been out for a while. Come on Joe, you're not daft. The two aren't remotely comparable. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:04 - Mar 21 with 1006 views | clive_baker |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:28 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You can't judge it like that though. These "extrapolate it over a full season" posts do my nut in. It's nonsense. For starters McKenna didn't have the gelling issue. The team had played together ages and had got to know each others foibles by the time he came in. Would they have gelled quicker under McKenna? We'll never know, but then again, if we'd started with him instead of Cook we'd have a totally different team.
Equally, you can't simply extrapolate Cook's games over the rest of the season and declare that's what we'd have got had he stayed. There was another transfer window to come for starters - we've no idea which players he'd have got in to arrest the problem areas.
There are so many unknowns and differing factors it's far too simplistic to just extrapolate someone's results over a full season.
McKenna's done a fantastic job so far. Just leave it at that. |
It's not nonsense. Cook had the back end of last season, a full pre season, and the best part of a half season this year to get us looking like a coherent side that could demonstrate any level of consistency, and he failed. Even in his latter days performances were completely hit and miss and we were accruing points at a rate that wasn't close to playoff form, with one of the better squads at this level. If our form under Cook was materially improving then you might have a point when you say Mckenna had the benefit of a more settled squad, but it was only a few weeks prior that we were flopping against the likes of Barrow at home, it can't work both ways.
McKenna demonstrated more nous and tactical organisation in weeks than Cook did in months. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:08 - Mar 21 with 981 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:50 - Mar 21 by LankHenners |
Surely by that argument Cook didn't have a gelling issue when he took over from Lambert so how come he didn't do any better, and in fact did slightly worse?
If we can say anything about McKenna's team since he's come in, it's that Cook's 'the individual errors won't change until we change the individuals' line was utter bollox (which it obviously was at the time he said it) so I don't really see how allowing Cook to get in more players would have made much of a difference. Indeed, McKenna's shown that the squad we'd assembled in the summer is good enough to perform at promotion-challenging if not winning level. |
The players were sh!t when Cook came in. They knew each other's games, they just weren't very good. They'd been failing for years. I don't really see Cook making things worse, they were just still the same old sh!t.
McKenna has one problem Cook had - the strikers not scoring. If Cook had managed to get in a decent striker in the next transfer window it would've made a huge difference.
Anyway, it's all just pointless speculation and I'm very happy with what McKenna's done so far. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:13 - Mar 21 with 967 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:04 - Mar 21 by clive_baker |
It's not nonsense. Cook had the back end of last season, a full pre season, and the best part of a half season this year to get us looking like a coherent side that could demonstrate any level of consistency, and he failed. Even in his latter days performances were completely hit and miss and we were accruing points at a rate that wasn't close to playoff form, with one of the better squads at this level. If our form under Cook was materially improving then you might have a point when you say Mckenna had the benefit of a more settled squad, but it was only a few weeks prior that we were flopping against the likes of Barrow at home, it can't work both ways.
McKenna demonstrated more nous and tactical organisation in weeks than Cook did in months. |
None of that suggests extrapolating either over a full season is anything other than nonsense.
It's an absolute fact that McKenna had a far more settled squad when he came in than Cook had at the start of the season (in fact he hadn't got several key members in by then anyway). The odd result here and there doesn't alter that. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:13 - Mar 21 with 972 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:08 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
The players were sh!t when Cook came in. They knew each other's games, they just weren't very good. They'd been failing for years. I don't really see Cook making things worse, they were just still the same old sh!t.
McKenna has one problem Cook had - the strikers not scoring. If Cook had managed to get in a decent striker in the next transfer window it would've made a huge difference.
Anyway, it's all just pointless speculation and I'm very happy with what McKenna's done so far. |
It wouldn't because he had absolutely zero idea how to organise a team defensively. We looked just as incoherent as a team the day he left as on the opening day. McKenna got us from looking a completely open shambles defensively to a side that barely gives chances away within a week of coming in. [Post edited 21 Mar 2022 15:14]
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:17 - Mar 21 with 947 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:13 - Mar 21 by tractorboy1978 |
It wouldn't because he had absolutely zero idea how to organise a team defensively. We looked just as incoherent as a team the day he left as on the opening day. McKenna got us from looking a completely open shambles defensively to a side that barely gives chances away within a week of coming in. [Post edited 21 Mar 2022 15:14]
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I don't disagree, but that's got nothing to do with the strikers not scoring. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:20 - Mar 21 with 943 views | chicoazul |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:51 - Mar 21 by MattinLondon |
Said by only a small number of people but used by imbeciles to make a point (not a very sharp point mind). |
Always worth reminding them. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:21 - Mar 21 with 941 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:17 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I don't disagree, but that's got nothing to do with the strikers not scoring. |
Our issue under Cook was not scoring goals though, it was that we conceded 2+ goals in 11 of his 20 league games. | | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:31 - Mar 21 with 916 views | LankHenners |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:08 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
The players were sh!t when Cook came in. They knew each other's games, they just weren't very good. They'd been failing for years. I don't really see Cook making things worse, they were just still the same old sh!t.
McKenna has one problem Cook had - the strikers not scoring. If Cook had managed to get in a decent striker in the next transfer window it would've made a huge difference.
Anyway, it's all just pointless speculation and I'm very happy with what McKenna's done so far. |
If they were that bad then maybe we all need to reevaluate Lambert seeing as he had them just outside the playoffs and on the brink of getting back in them when he left. I do tend to agree that it's splitting hairs slightly to argue whether Lambert or Cook did a worse job that season but for Cook to lay that blame on the players then proceed to start as badly as he did this season and end up saying 'we need to replace the individuals' before he was sacked is an indication of a man who was failing.
We have decent strikers, they're just all out of form/injured for one reason or another. I'd even say it's not just them that are responsible for us drawing blanks recently - plenty of players have found themselves on the end of chances and not put them away. I think it's clutching at straws a bit to say if Cook had managed to sign yet another player it would have made all the difference is.
We'll truly never know what would have happened had he stayed longer but long story short is he failed, was sacked on the back of it and now McKenna's come in and is doing a much much better job. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:35 - Mar 21 with 893 views | Sawtrich |
I think we've still got a small chance, teams often get the jitters when they get close to achieving a goal, look at Rotherham's current form. Pressure is going to build and build, if we can handle it better than those above us we've got half a chance. Having said that, Oxford was an absolute kick in the nuts wasn't it?
COYB |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:36 - Mar 21 with 890 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:21 - Mar 21 by tractorboy1978 |
Our issue under Cook was not scoring goals though, it was that we conceded 2+ goals in 11 of his 20 league games. |
We're getting away from the point - that we don't know who Cook would've brought in in January. In Cook's time here, he only had one transfer window. I think that's ludicrous - to be expected to turn around a team that's been failing for years, with just one window. I appreciate I'm in a minority but I stand by that being crazy.
McKenna's shaping up to be a better tactician than Cook, but those players we love now were almost all brought in by Cook. So credit where it's due. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:42 - Mar 21 with 872 views | Sawtrich |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:36 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
We're getting away from the point - that we don't know who Cook would've brought in in January. In Cook's time here, he only had one transfer window. I think that's ludicrous - to be expected to turn around a team that's been failing for years, with just one window. I appreciate I'm in a minority but I stand by that being crazy.
McKenna's shaping up to be a better tactician than Cook, but those players we love now were almost all brought in by Cook. So credit where it's due. |
I'm not sure how much credit Cook should get for thinking Celina, Morsy, etc. would be good players at League One level. I'm more inclined to think, given the budget available, that any even vaguely competent manager would've assembled a good squad. | | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:42 - Mar 21 with 869 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:31 - Mar 21 by LankHenners |
If they were that bad then maybe we all need to reevaluate Lambert seeing as he had them just outside the playoffs and on the brink of getting back in them when he left. I do tend to agree that it's splitting hairs slightly to argue whether Lambert or Cook did a worse job that season but for Cook to lay that blame on the players then proceed to start as badly as he did this season and end up saying 'we need to replace the individuals' before he was sacked is an indication of a man who was failing.
We have decent strikers, they're just all out of form/injured for one reason or another. I'd even say it's not just them that are responsible for us drawing blanks recently - plenty of players have found themselves on the end of chances and not put them away. I think it's clutching at straws a bit to say if Cook had managed to sign yet another player it would have made all the difference is.
We'll truly never know what would have happened had he stayed longer but long story short is he failed, was sacked on the back of it and now McKenna's come in and is doing a much much better job. |
Lambert wasn't on the brink of getting us in the play offs. You're re-writing history. If he was on the brink of something good, why on earth did we sack him? | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:47 - Mar 21 with 850 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:42 - Mar 21 by Sawtrich |
I'm not sure how much credit Cook should get for thinking Celina, Morsy, etc. would be good players at League One level. I'm more inclined to think, given the budget available, that any even vaguely competent manager would've assembled a good squad. |
Again, we're arguing the toss over unknowns, but certainly several of the players were linked to Cook and/or came because of him. Why the need to always have a bogey man? Cook failed overall, but he did get some very decent players in (some of which, like Morsy, many thought we wouldn't be able to get).
Does make me laugh how the out-going manager has to be painted in a negative light with everything he did by some. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:52 - Mar 21 with 828 views | bluelagos |
How are the percentages computed Joe? |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:53 - Mar 21 with 828 views | LankHenners |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:42 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Lambert wasn't on the brink of getting us in the play offs. You're re-writing history. If he was on the brink of something good, why on earth did we sack him? |
I was imprecise there - iirc our ppg form at the time Lambert left, if continued, would have seen us to a play off finish, Cook returned less than that and we ended up where we did.
To circle back to the original point, if it was the players that were so awful, "failing" and therefore at fault for what happened, why did Lambert go? Although I think this point is slightly irrelevant anyway as Evans' precise wording on his sacking was, I believe, about 'disagreements over priorities for the club' or something similar more than results.
Still, he was bad, Cook was bad, McKenna currently is very good. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:57 - Mar 21 with 810 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:36 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
We're getting away from the point - that we don't know who Cook would've brought in in January. In Cook's time here, he only had one transfer window. I think that's ludicrous - to be expected to turn around a team that's been failing for years, with just one window. I appreciate I'm in a minority but I stand by that being crazy.
McKenna's shaping up to be a better tactician than Cook, but those players we love now were almost all brought in by Cook. So credit where it's due. |
No doubt Walton, Chaplin, Morsy, Evans came here initially due to Cook, so credit where credit is due. But it'd be fair to argue that McKenna has got more out of all 4 of them than PC managed - and they were his players. Walton also signed permanently after PC had gone.
I don't look to be unduly unfair on Cook, I just think McKenna has proven to be in a totally different ball park. We still looked a mess to me when Cook got sacked. McKenna had/has us looking incomparably better within a really short space of time. There might be a sliver of the players knowing each other better etc but most of it is because we are being better coached/organised. That even comes from the players themselves. | | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 16:05 - Mar 21 with 787 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 15:57 - Mar 21 by tractorboy1978 |
No doubt Walton, Chaplin, Morsy, Evans came here initially due to Cook, so credit where credit is due. But it'd be fair to argue that McKenna has got more out of all 4 of them than PC managed - and they were his players. Walton also signed permanently after PC had gone.
I don't look to be unduly unfair on Cook, I just think McKenna has proven to be in a totally different ball park. We still looked a mess to me when Cook got sacked. McKenna had/has us looking incomparably better within a really short space of time. There might be a sliver of the players knowing each other better etc but most of it is because we are being better coached/organised. That even comes from the players themselves. |
I'd say it's more than a sliver. They were strangers at the start of the season.
Other than that I pretty much agree. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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