| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters 13:34 - Mar 22 with 3256 views | ITFCRich |
Anyone else seen that Marcelo Flores (the kid poached from us by Arsenal a few years back) has been rated the 48th best wonderkid in the world by Goal... At least we signed his sister I suppose.. |  | | |  |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 15:51 - Mar 22 with 630 views | homer_123 |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 15:42 - Mar 22 by itfcjoe |
I do understand how data works, and how research works - which is why this clearly doesn't make any sense.
If the average club gives out just 1 pro contract a season, it means that for those 92 clubs to do so that it means that each club has had to release 199 players in order to do that.
There are 9 age groups in an academy from U19-U16 and then U18 - it means that over 20 players are getting released from each age group, each season for one player to make it. there aren't even 20 players in each age group.
The numbers are wrong. |
The numbers are most certainly right given the approach and the level the data goes to Joe. It is your interpretation that is wrong here.
Again, read the research and report from the FA.
I'll again, point you here - if you don't like the FAs research:
The analysis – of players born from 1 September 1995 to 31 August 2000 – includes 4,109 players who were registered at Category One academies. Category One status is awarded to the top-tier academies that represent almost the entirety of the Premier League – including the Big Six of Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United – and several clubs in the Championship.
Of the 4,109 former academy footballers, 70 per cent were not even handed a professional contract at a Premier League or English Football League club. And only one in 10 has gone on to make more than 20 league appearances in the top four tiers of English football. |  |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:01 - Mar 22 with 606 views | itfcjoe |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 15:51 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
The numbers are most certainly right given the approach and the level the data goes to Joe. It is your interpretation that is wrong here.
Again, read the research and report from the FA.
I'll again, point you here - if you don't like the FAs research:
The analysis – of players born from 1 September 1995 to 31 August 2000 – includes 4,109 players who were registered at Category One academies. Category One status is awarded to the top-tier academies that represent almost the entirety of the Premier League – including the Big Six of Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United – and several clubs in the Championship.
Of the 4,109 former academy footballers, 70 per cent were not even handed a professional contract at a Premier League or English Football League club. And only one in 10 has gone on to make more than 20 league appearances in the top four tiers of English football. |
So if 30% get pro contracts that is 1,233 players.
If only 1 in 10 make 20 league appearances then that is 123 players 'making it'
If only 0.5% of players 'make it' which is the figure I vehemently disagree with as not passing any common sense check then it means that only 20 would do so, which is a lot less than the 1,233 who get a pro contract and the 123 who play 20 league games. |  |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:11 - Mar 22 with 584 views | homer_123 |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:01 - Mar 22 by itfcjoe |
So if 30% get pro contracts that is 1,233 players.
If only 1 in 10 make 20 league appearances then that is 123 players 'making it'
If only 0.5% of players 'make it' which is the figure I vehemently disagree with as not passing any common sense check then it means that only 20 would do so, which is a lot less than the 1,233 who get a pro contract and the 123 who play 20 league games. |
And this is where you are not accounting for how these two sets of figures are arrived at Joe.
One is looking at Cat One players 'only'. It's going to be higher.
The FA research looked at the whole of football and this is where the 0.5% comes from and it's right - it's looking at a much much wider cohort. | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:21 - Mar 22 with 568 views | Parsley |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:11 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
And this is where you are not accounting for how these two sets of figures are arrived at Joe.
One is looking at Cat One players 'only'. It's going to be higher.
The FA research looked at the whole of football and this is where the 0.5% comes from and it's right - it's looking at a much much wider cohort. |
Still doesn't seem to add up if 30% of cat 1 players are getting professional contracts then basically no one at cat 2, 3 or 4 would be getting a contract to even have a chance of bringing that down to 0.5% |  | | |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:26 - Mar 22 with 540 views | homer_123 |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:21 - Mar 22 by Parsley |
Still doesn't seem to add up if 30% of cat 1 players are getting professional contracts then basically no one at cat 2, 3 or 4 would be getting a contract to even have a chance of bringing that down to 0.5% |
Again, they are 'two different' data sets.
One is purely looking at Cat 1 the other is looking at the whole of football.
The % making it from Cat 1 is naturally going to be higher but it's still not that high - but when you factor in the wider cohort the FA looked at, this is why that number is 0.5% - they are two different data sets but both illustrate the small chance any given player has of making it. | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:27 - Mar 22 with 534 views | itfcjoe |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:11 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
And this is where you are not accounting for how these two sets of figures are arrived at Joe.
One is looking at Cat One players 'only'. It's going to be higher.
The FA research looked at the whole of football and this is where the 0.5% comes from and it's right - it's looking at a much much wider cohort. |
Why would Cat 1 necessarily be higher? Part of being a Cat 1 means they have larger squads - most Cat 3 academies don't even have people signed on as U9s for example, a lot have double age groups.
Just looking at Ipswich with those numbers would mean that there would need to be 5 clubs that don't even produce a single player ever - if you were to look at another Cat 2 academy like Crewe or Colchester who bring through more players they would effectively use up the whole leagues teams.
I'll do some more research tonight, but there is something clearly amiss with these numbers - if 3% of Cat 1 players have made it out of 4,109 (i.e. 123 players), it would mean that for it to be 0.5% overall:
Cat 1 academies - approx 25 - 4,109 players ~165 players per club
Cat 2 and 3 academies - approx 60 - if said 150 players per club ~9,000 players
Total 13,109 players in academies
If 0.5% were to make it it means that it would be 65 players across all 3 categories of academies
But we already know 123 players make it
So this 0.5% number is clearly rubbish | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:36 - Mar 22 with 510 views | homer_123 |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:27 - Mar 22 by itfcjoe |
Why would Cat 1 necessarily be higher? Part of being a Cat 1 means they have larger squads - most Cat 3 academies don't even have people signed on as U9s for example, a lot have double age groups.
Just looking at Ipswich with those numbers would mean that there would need to be 5 clubs that don't even produce a single player ever - if you were to look at another Cat 2 academy like Crewe or Colchester who bring through more players they would effectively use up the whole leagues teams.
I'll do some more research tonight, but there is something clearly amiss with these numbers - if 3% of Cat 1 players have made it out of 4,109 (i.e. 123 players), it would mean that for it to be 0.5% overall:
Cat 1 academies - approx 25 - 4,109 players ~165 players per club
Cat 2 and 3 academies - approx 60 - if said 150 players per club ~9,000 players
Total 13,109 players in academies
If 0.5% were to make it it means that it would be 65 players across all 3 categories of academies
But we already know 123 players make it
So this 0.5% number is clearly rubbish |
Again Joe - you are conflating the numbers here. They are looking at two different data sets. | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:39 - Mar 22 with 496 views | itfcjoe |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:36 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
Again Joe - you are conflating the numbers here. They are looking at two different data sets. |
Because the 0.5% number doesn't make sense on any level | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:41 - Mar 22 with 480 views | homer_123 |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:39 - Mar 22 by itfcjoe |
Because the 0.5% number doesn't make sense on any level |
Take it up with the FA - it's their research fella. | |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 17:08 - Mar 22 with 448 views | Veggie |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:41 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
Take it up with the FA - it's their research fella. |
Ah what does the FA know? |  | | |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 17:48 - Mar 22 with 401 views | jayessess |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:36 - Mar 22 by homer_123 |
Again Joe - you are conflating the numbers here. They are looking at two different data sets. |
In the context of a thread about Marcelo Flores' chances of making it as an elite footballer, the 0.5% is pretty much meaningless though, isn't it?
A pre-teen in a pro football team's academy isn't meaningfully close to being a pro footballer. It's a slightly odd thing for the FA to fixate on really. I had peers growing up who left academies aged 12, 13 ish, it wasn't a major diversion in their lives, they just grew up and did normal jobs. It was no more significant in their lives than playing for Claydon Juniors was for me.
If you're still there 15+ it'll start to shape your life and not making it will start to be a bigger and bigger deal the further down the road you get. I can't see the point in a stat that conflates that with an 11-year-old dropping out. |  |
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| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 18:54 - Mar 22 with 357 views | jontysnut |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 16:27 - Mar 22 by itfcjoe |
Why would Cat 1 necessarily be higher? Part of being a Cat 1 means they have larger squads - most Cat 3 academies don't even have people signed on as U9s for example, a lot have double age groups.
Just looking at Ipswich with those numbers would mean that there would need to be 5 clubs that don't even produce a single player ever - if you were to look at another Cat 2 academy like Crewe or Colchester who bring through more players they would effectively use up the whole leagues teams.
I'll do some more research tonight, but there is something clearly amiss with these numbers - if 3% of Cat 1 players have made it out of 4,109 (i.e. 123 players), it would mean that for it to be 0.5% overall:
Cat 1 academies - approx 25 - 4,109 players ~165 players per club
Cat 2 and 3 academies - approx 60 - if said 150 players per club ~9,000 players
Total 13,109 players in academies
If 0.5% were to make it it means that it would be 65 players across all 3 categories of academies
But we already know 123 players make it
So this 0.5% number is clearly rubbish |
A lot of clubs have u23 sides where despite being a pro in name, many will have no chance of progressing beyond that. You see the odd young player at Chelsea/City with a squad number in the 90s. EFL and league Cup fodder. |  | | |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 19:32 - Mar 22 with 329 views | jayessess |
| Marcelo Flores - One of the most promising youngsters on 18:54 - Mar 22 by jontysnut |
A lot of clubs have u23 sides where despite being a pro in name, many will have no chance of progressing beyond that. You see the odd young player at Chelsea/City with a squad number in the 90s. EFL and league Cup fodder. |
A lot more of those Chelsea/City kids are ultimately going to end up having pro careers though, aren't they? If you don't make it at Ipswich your next stop is going to non-league football (and probably not the national league at that). | |
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