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Here comes the correction. Anyone who has been following the markets closely knows that when the Feds turned the tap off things were going to get interesting. I have been very curious about the US housing market thoughoutt the craziness.
I think we could be in for another 2008 in some respects. Although the global financial systems are not at as much risk compared to the ridiculousness of the sub prime days, peoples property values certainly are. Not sure if same could be said for the UK but it but starting to already see some similarities, happening faster than many people thought. I wouldn't call it a bubble but it's not been far off.
It was far too easy to borrow money in an unstable world.
Every man and his dog decided to leave the city in 2020, interest rates went to 0.5% and the sunbelt boomed with work from home workers. I predicted at the time it was unsubstainable. I suspect people championing work from home might be singing a different tune in a few years when they see how replaceable they are but that's another topic. They will be the first to sell their houses when interest rates spike, inflation hits home and the 401k they took out for that downpayment without penalty now has tax due on it. I don't think people will default but I do think a lot will try and get out of their loans quickly.
I am sure it as been similar in the UK but houses were not lasting an hour on the market, the basic supply and demand during the pandemic was insane. However, there is really interesting data especially over here right now spells out big trouble.
- Home prices are higher relative to income wages than 2007 in many markets - Austin/Phoenix and many other places could see a 40% correction coming - The feds actually purchased $3 trillion in mortgage backed securities during quantitive easing
All this combined with inflation huge COL increase means very interesting times ahead. Those who waited it out to buy during covid will be the smart ones. I think people lives during the pandemic were so turned upside down they lost a sense of reality. People seemed convinced they will be able to work in the middle of nowhere forever on New York wages. It just doesn't work like that.
Having quite a few friends who lost their jobs and done the 'real estate" thing over the last year they all seem a bit worried. Obviously the US market rather affects the global markets so let's all hope the best I guess.
Hold onto your butts on 16:30 - Jun 13 by fab_lover
The locals being resentful....of course not being the ones who sold the properties for a killing in the first place.
A bit like the sales of fishing quotas.
Communities which were damaged through their own selfish short-term interests and now have a moan. It's perfectly possible to stop homes being sold as second homes if you want to.
Sadly, many around this way are being sold off by housing associations to the highest bidder.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
Hold onto your butts on 16:30 - Jun 13 by fab_lover
The locals being resentful....of course not being the ones who sold the properties for a killing in the first place.
A bit like the sales of fishing quotas.
Communities which were damaged through their own selfish short-term interests and now have a moan. It's perfectly possible to stop homes being sold as second homes if you want to.
There are at least two problems:
a) very few of the local people in rural communities who are in minimum wage employment have the means to even afford to rent a modest cottage these days and are usually in some type of shared house arrangement. Even then they cannot manage to save the necessary amount to put a deposit on a house...or service the debt.
b) the incomers are less likely to work in or around the village, their travel and work patterns often make it less likely that they will socialise in the village and use local services - thus contributing to a lack of viability for shops, garages, pubs etc. in the village.
Some island communities are able to mitigate against the sale of houses to people who are not going to spend a significant proportion of the year at the property, and to prevent the use of vehicles that do not belong to residents on the island but elsewhere the market rules all and rich second home owners have little difficulty outbidding locals and breezing past any restrictions.
Hold onto your butts on 10:39 - Jun 13 by BiGDonnie
We're stopping all working from home within three months and will have to have some difficult conversations soon. It will probably see some people leave, but the benefits for the business of people working in the office far outweigh that of those working from home.
I think this is sector specific though - sales/recruitment environment you need that office buzz and to be pro active. Plenty of face to face meetings & client visits etc.
If you're in an admin role you'll be alright to work from home I'd suspect.
Only reason recruitment companies want people in the office is so they can guilt them into working 12-14 hour days to meet KPI’s and middle managers can justify their jobs by making sure people “get on the phones”
Worst job I’ve ever had by some considerable distance, despite the commission etc.
Hold onto your butts on 09:58 - Jun 13 by WeWereZombies
I think that this is true all over the British Isles, Cornwall maybe being the worst hit county. There's even a song about it:
But with a seemingly endless supply of retirees (of which I am one but I am trying to escape that...) the effect is unlikely to end anytime soon. And those that do run into financial difficulties soon become aware of the others, vulture style, close by and waiting to make a killing.
[Post edited 13 Jun 2022 10:06]
It’s wrecked the local community in Pembrokeshire where my in-laws live. They’ve gone from having neighbours to being completely surrounded by holiday homes that are vacant half the time. Local services have shut to be replaced by poncy shops and restaurants the locals can’t afford (or would want to go to). The added twist there is that it’s also diluted the use of the national language.
Hold onto your butts on 19:35 - Jun 13 by Swansea_Blue
It’s wrecked the local community in Pembrokeshire where my in-laws live. They’ve gone from having neighbours to being completely surrounded by holiday homes that are vacant half the time. Local services have shut to be replaced by poncy shops and restaurants the locals can’t afford (or would want to go to). The added twist there is that it’s also diluted the use of the national language.
The locals used to have enlightened (shall we say) methods of discouraging such incomers ...
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Hold onto your butts on 08:31 - Jun 14 with 548 views
Hold onto your butts on 19:11 - Jun 13 by Big_Jase
Only reason recruitment companies want people in the office is so they can guilt them into working 12-14 hour days to meet KPI’s and middle managers can justify their jobs by making sure people “get on the phones”
Worst job I’ve ever had by some considerable distance, despite the commission etc.
Not all companies are the same fella, however yes, many of the big recruiters are like you've said. I've worked at a couple myself.
We do 8-4 two days a week, 8-5 days a week and we're massive on making sure we don't over work our brilliant staff. 1.5 hour lunch breaks, gym memberships. coffee subscriptions and much more.
Hold onto your butts on 16:30 - Jun 13 by fab_lover
The locals being resentful....of course not being the ones who sold the properties for a killing in the first place.
A bit like the sales of fishing quotas.
Communities which were damaged through their own selfish short-term interests and now have a moan. It's perfectly possible to stop homes being sold as second homes if you want to.
Not sure I agree on that, people are going to sell houses they will always need to upsize and down size they are usually not in a position to dictate who they are selling to.
It’s the job of government and local government to dictate the second home situation, and they should come at a massive premium with the premium being re invested in the community.
Cornwall will soon come to full crisis as there are a handful of homes to rent in the county, all landlords have sold or switched to air bnb, areas like the hospitals cannot recruit anyone who doesn’t already live here.
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