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Here comes the correction. Anyone who has been following the markets closely knows that when the Feds turned the tap off things were going to get interesting. I have been very curious about the US housing market thoughoutt the craziness.
I think we could be in for another 2008 in some respects. Although the global financial systems are not at as much risk compared to the ridiculousness of the sub prime days, peoples property values certainly are. Not sure if same could be said for the UK but it but starting to already see some similarities, happening faster than many people thought. I wouldn't call it a bubble but it's not been far off.
It was far too easy to borrow money in an unstable world.
Every man and his dog decided to leave the city in 2020, interest rates went to 0.5% and the sunbelt boomed with work from home workers. I predicted at the time it was unsubstainable. I suspect people championing work from home might be singing a different tune in a few years when they see how replaceable they are but that's another topic. They will be the first to sell their houses when interest rates spike, inflation hits home and the 401k they took out for that downpayment without penalty now has tax due on it. I don't think people will default but I do think a lot will try and get out of their loans quickly.
I am sure it as been similar in the UK but houses were not lasting an hour on the market, the basic supply and demand during the pandemic was insane. However, there is really interesting data especially over here right now spells out big trouble.
- Home prices are higher relative to income wages than 2007 in many markets - Austin/Phoenix and many other places could see a 40% correction coming - The feds actually purchased $3 trillion in mortgage backed securities during quantitive easing
All this combined with inflation huge COL increase means very interesting times ahead. Those who waited it out to buy during covid will be the smart ones. I think people lives during the pandemic were so turned upside down they lost a sense of reality. People seemed convinced they will be able to work in the middle of nowhere forever on New York wages. It just doesn't work like that.
Having quite a few friends who lost their jobs and done the 'real estate" thing over the last year they all seem a bit worried. Obviously the US market rather affects the global markets so let's all hope the best I guess.
Hold onto your butts on 17:32 - Jun 12 by WeWereZombies
But there is also the cubicle environment for many who travel into work, a soulless existence bounded by three demountable partitions with little interaction with colleagues. if you never have much to do with your fellow employees surely you are better off working from home?
Hold onto your butts on 17:32 - Jun 12 by WeWereZombies
But there is also the cubicle environment for many who travel into work, a soulless existence bounded by three demountable partitions with little interaction with colleagues. if you never have much to do with your fellow employees surely you are better off working from home?
On a lighter note, have you watched the film, 'Office Space'? A good watch.
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Hold onto your butts on 17:48 - Jun 12 with 1545 views
Hold onto your butts on 08:37 - Jun 12 by Simonds92
We are clearly going in to recession, thats been relatively obvious for a long time. No idea how you think this will impact people working from home. It allows companies to recruit potentially better candidates from across the country, reduces overheads etc. What benefit would working in an office have to the companies?
Don't think they'll have to worry about a shortage of workers as it's on the cards that the Fed will raise interest rates significantly whilst at the same time nullifying quantitative easing therefore raising the dollar and lowering the pound. Which means oil will be more expensive to buy along with everything else. Leading to job losses and everything that goes along with that.
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Hold onto your butts on 17:49 - Jun 12 with 1545 views
Have you seen what’s happening in the tech sector already? It’s slightly different in the US because of how vast the country is but you can’t pay someone the same wage in Tulsa as San Francisco, this isn’t going to end well for many.
So the people in the offices that cost companies money in rent travel etc. Will be the first people to go not those working remotely.
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Hold onto your butts on 22:03 - Jun 12 with 1446 views
To me it seems like the big difference between 2008 and the current situation is the level of LTV is very different. I don’t think we’ve seen 90%+ LTV mortgages available to the vast majority of the population during the pandemic compared to the 100% mortgages that were being thrown around pre-2008 and so this should insulate people somewhat and avoid negative equity for most. There will definitely be a levelling out but I can’t see a massive drop and I feel that with the current amount of work vacancies about, people are going to be pretty secure in their jobs. I can see a massive slow down in house prices and probably a 5-10% drop from peak prices a month or two ago but I think most people will be in a decent position to sit tight and ride it out. Certainly people are going to have to tighten their belts with regards to the COL and I would be far far more fearful for those in rentals / those relying on government support than home owners.
Your assessment is spot-on. Lessons were learned from the crazy pre-2008 lending criteria.
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Hold onto your butts on 23:21 - Jun 12 with 1395 views
It's no wonder Putin looks so smug. Whether coincidentally or by design, he is doing a fantastic job on the global, capitalist economy.. Conspiracy theorists in years to come will see a collaboration between China and Russia and the perfect storm of economic disasters. Tom Clancy must be penning a new novel as we speak.
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Hold onto your butts on 23:59 - Jun 12 with 1380 views
Hold onto your butts on 22:03 - Jun 12 by EatonBlue
Your assessment is spot-on. Lessons were learned from the crazy pre-2008 lending criteria.
Yes - Everyone was making a lot of money from people that had no money so that wasn’t going tk end well.
However, prices relevant to wages have been ridiculous recently so there is going to be a big correction, increase in inventory and a cooling of the market.
Yes - Everyone was making a lot of money from people that had no money so that wasn’t going tk end well.
However, prices relevant to wages have been ridiculous recently so there is going to be a big correction, increase in inventory and a cooling of the market.
None that you probably care about but it’s just an interesting shift over here that can have a ripple affect. Home workers have been bringing their wages from outside jobs and screwing with the local housing market. However, they might also lose out in the immediate future especially if they don’t want to settle long term.
The Western mountain regions of the US are a good example, Boise ID, houses have doubled in a few years but it’s not the local economy. There are many other extremely overvalued markets in Utah, Arizona etc. Austin TX is also about to get hit. I guess everyone got fed up of the $1.5M price tag in the valley.
It won’t be 2008 foreclosures when low income people had 5 houses but some people are going to see huge depreciations.
Obviously different in the UK but was curious if similar patterns had been felt in London if people left the city, that said the entire south east is fairly expensive and robust anyway.
None that you probably care about but it’s just an interesting shift over here that can have a ripple affect. Home workers have been bringing their wages from outside jobs and screwing with the local housing market. However, they might also lose out in the immediate future especially if they don’t want to settle long term.
The Western mountain regions of the US are a good example, Boise ID, houses have doubled in a few years but it’s not the local economy. There are many other extremely overvalued markets in Utah, Arizona etc. Austin TX is also about to get hit. I guess everyone got fed up of the $1.5M price tag in the valley.
It won’t be 2008 foreclosures when low income people had 5 houses but some people are going to see huge depreciations.
Obviously different in the UK but was curious if similar patterns had been felt in London if people left the city, that said the entire south east is fairly expensive and robust anyway.
It's almost like it's a moving feast in which you have to anticipate future patterns.
Hope you didn't get too burnt from whatever risk you took, although it sounds like you did.
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Hold onto your butts on 01:12 - Jun 13 with 1339 views
It's almost like it's a moving feast in which you have to anticipate future patterns.
Hope you didn't get too burnt from whatever risk you took, although it sounds like you did.
Thank you. I didn’t buy over the last few years mainly because we got fairly crippled by Covid, if not I sure there is a chance I might have got caught up in the frenzy.
At this point I’m sitting tight as work gets back on track. Interestingly investors also brought entire zip codes in some of these places as borrowing money so was cheap. If they can’t rent/sell them at the yields they want then it might get really interesting in the next couple of years.
None that you probably care about but it’s just an interesting shift over here that can have a ripple affect. Home workers have been bringing their wages from outside jobs and screwing with the local housing market. However, they might also lose out in the immediate future especially if they don’t want to settle long term.
The Western mountain regions of the US are a good example, Boise ID, houses have doubled in a few years but it’s not the local economy. There are many other extremely overvalued markets in Utah, Arizona etc. Austin TX is also about to get hit. I guess everyone got fed up of the $1.5M price tag in the valley.
It won’t be 2008 foreclosures when low income people had 5 houses but some people are going to see huge depreciations.
Obviously different in the UK but was curious if similar patterns had been felt in London if people left the city, that said the entire south east is fairly expensive and robust anyway.
Escaping Londonders have done exactly that to Suffolk rental and property prices. The locals are resentful in my experience.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
Escaping Londonders have done exactly that to Suffolk rental and property prices. The locals are resentful in my experience.
I think that this is true all over the British Isles, Cornwall maybe being the worst hit county. There's even a song about it:
But with a seemingly endless supply of retirees (of which I am one but I am trying to escape that...) the effect is unlikely to end anytime soon. And those that do run into financial difficulties soon become aware of the others, vulture style, close by and waiting to make a killing.
Again, it seems people like you can't argue against the benefits it brings and are arguing purely in your own self interest.
Good luck.
We're stopping all working from home within three months and will have to have some difficult conversations soon. It will probably see some people leave, but the benefits for the business of people working in the office far outweigh that of those working from home.
I think this is sector specific though - sales/recruitment environment you need that office buzz and to be pro active. Plenty of face to face meetings & client visits etc.
If you're in an admin role you'll be alright to work from home I'd suspect.
Hold onto your butts on 10:49 - Jun 13 by unbelievablue
Adapt or die.
I think that's probably right. It's v interesting recruiting (and retaining) at the moment - anything more than 1 or 2 days in the office is a no goer.
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Hold onto your butts on 11:08 - Jun 13 with 1121 views
Hold onto your butts on 11:05 - Jun 13 by PrideOfTheEast
I think that's probably right. It's v interesting recruiting (and retaining) at the moment - anything more than 1 or 2 days in the office is a no goer.
Hold onto your butts on 11:05 - Jun 13 by PrideOfTheEast
I think that's probably right. It's v interesting recruiting (and retaining) at the moment - anything more than 1 or 2 days in the office is a no goer.
Yep - each to their own. And when that has impacts, those people/places/organisations/governments have to adapt. It's always been like that.
I've been doing 3 days a week in the office in my new role. It's been fantastic, and makes the 2 days at home way more rewarding. In years past I wasn't as ambitious and rested on my laurels far more, working from home and generally avoiding in-office situations, even pre-pandemic to some extent. It was highly detrimental to my mental and physical health.
And, to be completely honest, going in a bit more is also a relatively low effort differentiator between me and other people at my level/in my role. I'm not saying that's necessarily fair, but that's still very much the way it is with some organisations/people at exec level: they want to see you make the effort.
Hold onto your butts on 11:09 - Jun 13 by unbelievablue
Yep - each to their own. And when that has impacts, those people/places/organisations/governments have to adapt. It's always been like that.
I've been doing 3 days a week in the office in my new role. It's been fantastic, and makes the 2 days at home way more rewarding. In years past I wasn't as ambitious and rested on my laurels far more, working from home and generally avoiding in-office situations, even pre-pandemic to some extent. It was highly detrimental to my mental and physical health.
And, to be completely honest, going in a bit more is also a relatively low effort differentiator between me and other people at my level/in my role. I'm not saying that's necessarily fair, but that's still very much the way it is with some organisations/people at exec level: they want to see you make the effort.
That said, this morning was a struggle!
Yep indeed. It's bonus season here at the moment and what you say certainly resonates!
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Hold onto your butts on 11:34 - Jun 13 with 1091 views
A lot of companies already sponsor developers etc from India to come over to work in jobs at at slightly lower rates. I guess now they don’t have to worry about visas costs and petitions if that’s the route everyone wants to go.
Maybe because I’ve moved around a fair bit for work but the idea of never moving to a new exciting city for a job seems rather boring an uninteresting. Messing with the complexities of the labor/ housing market at the same time. Not exactly helping the local economy either after the last few years.
While I completely get everyone has different priorities in life and work life balance is very important, the idea of never being with colleagues and getting into a routine is all bit dull to me. Not to mention the amount of talent that work their way through the ranks because of being recognized in an in person environment. Harder to stand out from behind your screen. We have had interns that are at VP level now.
[Post edited 12 Jun 2022 17:15]
I'm sure some environments are like that, but plenty of in office work now is hot desking, vast offices, no camaraderie with a team actually working with as located all over the building etc
I think most places will stay with an element of hybrid - but I've got friends being dragged back into the office in London from Ipswich who are not even in a position to interact with their team when there because it's spread all over a floor at Canary Wharf.
I guess jobs will just become more separated between ones that are best done at home, best done hybrid and best done with full attendance and people will go towards the job that attracts them.
I loved office work when younger, and all it entailed, but that is often company dependent
Hold onto your butts on 09:58 - Jun 13 by WeWereZombies
I think that this is true all over the British Isles, Cornwall maybe being the worst hit county. There's even a song about it:
But with a seemingly endless supply of retirees (of which I am one but I am trying to escape that...) the effect is unlikely to end anytime soon. And those that do run into financial difficulties soon become aware of the others, vulture style, close by and waiting to make a killing.
[Post edited 13 Jun 2022 10:06]
The locals being resentful....of course not being the ones who sold the properties for a killing in the first place.
A bit like the sales of fishing quotas.
Communities which were damaged through their own selfish short-term interests and now have a moan. It's perfectly possible to stop homes being sold as second homes if you want to.
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Hold onto your butts on 16:34 - Jun 13 with 1026 views
I'm sure some environments are like that, but plenty of in office work now is hot desking, vast offices, no camaraderie with a team actually working with as located all over the building etc
I think most places will stay with an element of hybrid - but I've got friends being dragged back into the office in London from Ipswich who are not even in a position to interact with their team when there because it's spread all over a floor at Canary Wharf.
I guess jobs will just become more separated between ones that are best done at home, best done hybrid and best done with full attendance and people will go towards the job that attracts them.
I loved office work when younger, and all it entailed, but that is often company dependent
True, all depends I guess. I work for a large global company but we operate in pretty small operations and sales teams in our individual markets. The buzz of the office and team environment really makes a difference.
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