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Equivalent fixture analysis 09:59 - Dec 30 with 4168 viewsADStephenson

Inspired by Nthsuffolkblue's Statistical Analysis thread, I've taken the time to compare our equivalent fixtures with Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday. I entered all our fixtures onto a spreadsheet and then entered the results Plymouth and Wednesday got from the equivalent fixtures that they've played.
Our record compared to Plymouth is very similar. In the 10 equivalent fixtures, we have amassed 19 points and have a G.D. of +8. Plymouth have amassed 18 points and have a G.D. of +2.
Our record compared to Wednesday is a bit better. In our 11 equivalent fixtures we have amassed 26 points and have a G.D. of 12. Wednesday have amassed 19 points and have a G.D. of +6.
What does all this mean? Probably not a lot, but I thought it was worth considering how we do against the same teams when home/away as compared to our rivals. At the moment we are just edging it.
(I haven't checked the results more than once, so I may have made a mistake in the Plymouth/SW results, but ours are 100% correct.)

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 10:06 - Dec 30 with 4100 viewsGuthrum

By equivalent fixture, do you mean playing the same team at the same venue (i.e. home or away)?

If so, that suggests things will even out in our favour as the second half of the season progresses.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 10:36 - Dec 30 with 4036 viewsADStephenson

Equivalent fixture analysis on 10:06 - Dec 30 by Guthrum

By equivalent fixture, do you mean playing the same team at the same venue (i.e. home or away)?

If so, that suggests things will even out in our favour as the second half of the season progresses.


Exactly that. For example, we have played Bolton at home, so if Plymouth or Wednesday have played Bolton at home, I included that result. If they played Bolton away, I didn't include the result.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 10:48 - Dec 30 with 3995 viewsringwoodblue

Good work AD.

This was something I was going to do when I had some spare time but you’ve saved me the trouble - thanks!

Now that you’ve done the hard work, will you keep the spreadsheet up-to-date and periodically post the latest position? Not that I’m trying to give you extra work but it would also be interesting to see how Barnsley compare as well.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 12:27 - Dec 30 with 3870 viewsADStephenson

Equivalent fixture analysis on 10:48 - Dec 30 by ringwoodblue

Good work AD.

This was something I was going to do when I had some spare time but you’ve saved me the trouble - thanks!

Now that you’ve done the hard work, will you keep the spreadsheet up-to-date and periodically post the latest position? Not that I’m trying to give you extra work but it would also be interesting to see how Barnsley compare as well.


Yep, I'll keep it up to date on a weekly basis. I'll even add in Barnsley for you. I just need to find a way to automate the points calculation rather than doing it manually for each comparison.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:39 - Dec 30 with 3796 viewsADStephenson

OK, I've taken a bit more time over things (checked the results more carefully) and have some updated results for us... They show us to be pretty close to Plymouth and Barnsley, although surprisingly they do suggest that Sheffield Wednesday are the least of our worries...
After playing the same ten fixtures as each of Plymouth, Wednesday and Barnsley, the points and GD are as follows:
Vs Plymouth - 19 points vs 21 and +7 GD vs +6 (2 points down)
Vs Sheffield Wednesday - 23 points vs 16 and +11 GD vs +5 (7 points up)
Vs Barnsley - 18 points vs 19 and +9 GD vs +7. (1 point down)

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:44 - Dec 30 with 3778 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:39 - Dec 30 by ADStephenson

OK, I've taken a bit more time over things (checked the results more carefully) and have some updated results for us... They show us to be pretty close to Plymouth and Barnsley, although surprisingly they do suggest that Sheffield Wednesday are the least of our worries...
After playing the same ten fixtures as each of Plymouth, Wednesday and Barnsley, the points and GD are as follows:
Vs Plymouth - 19 points vs 21 and +7 GD vs +6 (2 points down)
Vs Sheffield Wednesday - 23 points vs 16 and +11 GD vs +5 (7 points up)
Vs Barnsley - 18 points vs 19 and +9 GD vs +7. (1 point down)


That’s brilliant, thanks.

As I suspected, Barnsley are slightly ahead of us and that’s why the game against them at Oakwell as well as our home fixtures against Plymouth and Wednesday will be so crucial - maybe even season-defining.

I also noticed that we play Fleetwood in our last game so hope we’ve secured auto-promotion before then.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:16 - Jan 1 with 3546 viewsADStephenson

Two of the three teams we have considered main rivals have already played away at Lincoln. Both Plymouth and Wednesday drew 1-1, so any result better than a draw will be points gained on those two teams in that respective fixture.
Plymouth are at home to MK today and I think we can probably expect a win there, which would be the same as our result at home to MK. If we both win today/tomorrow, then we will be level on points over 11 equivalent fixtures.
Sheffield Wednesday and Barnsley both play tomorrow. Wednesday are at home to Cambridge so need a win to equal our result.
Barnsley are at home to Bolton, so anything more than a draw will better our result.
I'll update after the Plymouth game and then again after the three matches taking place tomorrow.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:30 - Jan 1 with 3479 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:16 - Jan 1 by ADStephenson

Two of the three teams we have considered main rivals have already played away at Lincoln. Both Plymouth and Wednesday drew 1-1, so any result better than a draw will be points gained on those two teams in that respective fixture.
Plymouth are at home to MK today and I think we can probably expect a win there, which would be the same as our result at home to MK. If we both win today/tomorrow, then we will be level on points over 11 equivalent fixtures.
Sheffield Wednesday and Barnsley both play tomorrow. Wednesday are at home to Cambridge so need a win to equal our result.
Barnsley are at home to Bolton, so anything more than a draw will better our result.
I'll update after the Plymouth game and then again after the three matches taking place tomorrow.


Thanks AD.

I was looking at our results compared to Plymouth’s results for equivalent fixtures home and away and by my reckoning we are 4 points down on them rather than 2. Would you be able to check to see if that’s right?

Home
–––-
Barnsley -2
Bolton -2

Away
–––
Burton +2
Charlton +1
Wycombe -3
👍

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:39 - Jan 1 with 3451 viewsskinnybob72

Looking at the current table the teams in 4th - 7th are Barnsley, Derby, Bolton & P'boro - we have played all of them at home and so have to play each of them away, a tough set of games.

No idea how many of them that Plymouth & Sheff Wed have played away but they would be fixtures we might see a favourable result in, i.e. draws!
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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:47 - Jan 1 with 3433 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:39 - Jan 1 by skinnybob72

Looking at the current table the teams in 4th - 7th are Barnsley, Derby, Bolton & P'boro - we have played all of them at home and so have to play each of them away, a tough set of games.

No idea how many of them that Plymouth & Sheff Wed have played away but they would be fixtures we might see a favourable result in, i.e. draws!


Plymouth have only played away against Derby out of those four teams and they got all 3 points there.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 14:13 - Jan 1 with 3382 viewsskinnybob72

Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:47 - Jan 1 by ringwoodblue

Plymouth have only played away against Derby out of those four teams and they got all 3 points there.


And they still have to come to PR and (I think) go to Sheff Wed - so they have a lot of tough away games in the second half of the season.
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Equivalent fixture analysis on 14:18 - Jan 1 with 3354 viewsADStephenson

Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:30 - Jan 1 by ringwoodblue

Thanks AD.

I was looking at our results compared to Plymouth’s results for equivalent fixtures home and away and by my reckoning we are 4 points down on them rather than 2. Would you be able to check to see if that’s right?

Home
–––-
Barnsley -2
Bolton -2

Away
–––
Burton +2
Charlton +1
Wycombe -3
👍


You are right about us being 4 points down on Plymouth in those two fixtures as they did beat Barnsley and Bolton at Home Park, however they only drew away at Burton where we won (-2 on us) and drew at home to Bristol Rovers, which we also won (-2 on us). They lost away at Charlton, which we drew (-1 on us) and won away at Wycombe, which we lost (+3 on us), putting them +2 overall. All other results (not scores) are the same so far.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 18:40 - Jan 2 with 3110 viewsADStephenson

I am sure we are all disappointed with today, but in terms of equivalent fixtures, it's actually good news. Neither Plymouth or Wednesday beat Lincoln away, meaning we did not lose any ground on them in that equivalent fixture (in fact, all three of us have now drawn 1-1 away at Lincoln - Barnsley haven't played there yet).
As we beat Cambridge at home (although not quite as convincingly as SW) we did lose points there (but did lose 2 goals on GD ).
Best of all, Barnsley lost at home to Bolton, meaning we gained a point on them in that equivalent fixture, where we drew 1-1.
Current standings are:
ITFC 23-25 Lincoln after 12 equivalent games played - our GD is +10, Plymouth +8.
ITFC 27-20 Wednesday after 12 equivalent games played - our GD is +14, Wednesday is +10.
ITFC 19-19 Barnsley after 11 equivalent games played - our GD is +9, Barnsley is +4.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:30 - Jan 2 with 2964 viewsBOBD

This is all very well until you consider this…..

The matches that Wednesday have played that Ipswich haven’t and the results Wednesday achieved are as follows:-

A v Cambridge - won
H v F Green - won
A v MK Dons - won
H v Burton - won
A v Bolton - won
H v Shrewsbury- won
A v Derby - drew
H v Wycombe - won
H v Charlton - won
H v Port Vale - won
A v Peterborough - lost
A v Fleetwood - won

P12 W10 D1 L1 Pts 31

It will be difficult for Ipswich to match that.

The matches Ipswich have played that Wednesday haven’t are:-

H v Bolton - Drew
A v F Green - won
H v MK - won
A v Burton - won
A v Shrewsbury - won
H v Lincoln - lost
H v Derby - won
A v Charlton - drew
H v Fleetwood - drew
H v Peterborough- won
A v Wycombe - lost
A v Portsmouth - drew

P12 W6 D4 L2 Pts 22

Under 2 points per match and therefore maybe Wednesday can match or exceed that.
[Post edited 2 Jan 2023 20:30]
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Equivalent fixture analysis on 22:27 - Jan 2 with 2833 viewsArnieM

Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:30 - Jan 2 by BOBD

This is all very well until you consider this…..

The matches that Wednesday have played that Ipswich haven’t and the results Wednesday achieved are as follows:-

A v Cambridge - won
H v F Green - won
A v MK Dons - won
H v Burton - won
A v Bolton - won
H v Shrewsbury- won
A v Derby - drew
H v Wycombe - won
H v Charlton - won
H v Port Vale - won
A v Peterborough - lost
A v Fleetwood - won

P12 W10 D1 L1 Pts 31

It will be difficult for Ipswich to match that.

The matches Ipswich have played that Wednesday haven’t are:-

H v Bolton - Drew
A v F Green - won
H v MK - won
A v Burton - won
A v Shrewsbury - won
H v Lincoln - lost
H v Derby - won
A v Charlton - drew
H v Fleetwood - drew
H v Peterborough- won
A v Wycombe - lost
A v Portsmouth - drew

P12 W6 D4 L2 Pts 22

Under 2 points per match and therefore maybe Wednesday can match or exceed that.
[Post edited 2 Jan 2023 20:30]


And there’s the telling stat. Town’s ability ( or inability) to hold onto winning positions and clutch a draw from a winning position. Those points dropped will be our Achilles heel.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 13:43 - Jan 3 with 2643 viewsADStephenson

Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:30 - Jan 2 by BOBD

This is all very well until you consider this…..

The matches that Wednesday have played that Ipswich haven’t and the results Wednesday achieved are as follows:-

A v Cambridge - won
H v F Green - won
A v MK Dons - won
H v Burton - won
A v Bolton - won
H v Shrewsbury- won
A v Derby - drew
H v Wycombe - won
H v Charlton - won
H v Port Vale - won
A v Peterborough - lost
A v Fleetwood - won

P12 W10 D1 L1 Pts 31

It will be difficult for Ipswich to match that.

The matches Ipswich have played that Wednesday haven’t are:-

H v Bolton - Drew
A v F Green - won
H v MK - won
A v Burton - won
A v Shrewsbury - won
H v Lincoln - lost
H v Derby - won
A v Charlton - drew
H v Fleetwood - drew
H v Peterborough- won
A v Wycombe - lost
A v Portsmouth - drew

P12 W6 D4 L2 Pts 22

Under 2 points per match and therefore maybe Wednesday can match or exceed that.
[Post edited 2 Jan 2023 20:30]


I realise that the Ganges that haven't been matched up yet are important, but of those 10 games that Wednesday have played that we haven't, none look too challenging (on paper) other than Bolton away. Unfortunately, as we all know, our record in games we "should" win isn't perfect. And while Wednesday might better our record in the have they've played that we haven't, they've got a bit of catching to do on our equivalent records overall.
Have you compared the same thing for Plymouth? I haven't looked into it. How does their record in games we've yet to play look? We only need to finish above one of them, although both would be nice.

www.adstephenson.com

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 19:00 - Jan 14 with 2197 viewsringwoodblue

Picking up on the great work started by ADStephenson, after todays results this is the picture according to my calculations:

In the 12 equivalent fixtures to Barnsley. - Ipswich are 1 point up
In the 14 equivalent fixtures to Bolton. - Ipswich are 12 points up
In the 13 equivalent fixtures to Derby. - Ipswich are 7 points up
In the 12 equivalent fixtures to Plymouth - Ipswich are 4 points down
In the 13 equivalent fixtures to Sheff Wed - Ipswich are 4 points up

Sheff Wed were the big winners today as they beat Wycombe away, a fixture which of course we lost

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 12:37 - Feb 26 with 1645 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 19:00 - Jan 14 by ringwoodblue

Picking up on the great work started by ADStephenson, after todays results this is the picture according to my calculations:

In the 12 equivalent fixtures to Barnsley. - Ipswich are 1 point up
In the 14 equivalent fixtures to Bolton. - Ipswich are 12 points up
In the 13 equivalent fixtures to Derby. - Ipswich are 7 points up
In the 12 equivalent fixtures to Plymouth - Ipswich are 4 points down
In the 13 equivalent fixtures to Sheff Wed - Ipswich are 4 points up

Sheff Wed were the big winners today as they beat Wycombe away, a fixture which of course we lost


Just an update on the picture in equivalent fixtures of the top six if anyone is interested

In the 19 equivalent fixtures to Barnsley. - Ipswich are 4 points down
In the 23 equivalent fixtures to Bolton. - Ipswich are 9 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Derby. - Ipswich are 2 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Plymouth - Ipswich are 10 points down
In the 21 equivalent fixtures to Sheff Wed - Ipswich are 4 points down

Of the other teams that have played FGR (H) and MKD (A), they’ve all got 3 points
Of the other teams that have played Burton (H) and Accy (H), they all got 3 points so we must win those games just to keep pace with our rivals.

It’s our following games where we can make up ground.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 17:14 - Feb 26 with 1442 viewsKievthegreat

Equivalent fixture analysis on 12:37 - Feb 26 by ringwoodblue

Just an update on the picture in equivalent fixtures of the top six if anyone is interested

In the 19 equivalent fixtures to Barnsley. - Ipswich are 4 points down
In the 23 equivalent fixtures to Bolton. - Ipswich are 9 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Derby. - Ipswich are 2 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Plymouth - Ipswich are 10 points down
In the 21 equivalent fixtures to Sheff Wed - Ipswich are 4 points down

Of the other teams that have played FGR (H) and MKD (A), they’ve all got 3 points
Of the other teams that have played Burton (H) and Accy (H), they all got 3 points so we must win those games just to keep pace with our rivals.

It’s our following games where we can make up ground.


Just looked at the other teams next couple of games (up to 7th March) for reference.

Barnsley - 2 equivalent fixtures (Bristol away and Portsmouth at home) We got 4 points
Bolton - 2 equivalent fixtures (Portsmouth away and Morecambe away) We got 4 points
Derby - 2 equivalent fixtures (Cheltenham at home and Plymouth away) We got 1 point
Plymouth - 1 equivalent fixture (Derby and home) We got 3 points
Wednesday - 1 equivalent fixture (Peterborough at home) We got 3 points
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Equivalent fixture analysis on 22:35 - Mar 21 with 1091 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 12:37 - Feb 26 by ringwoodblue

Just an update on the picture in equivalent fixtures of the top six if anyone is interested

In the 19 equivalent fixtures to Barnsley. - Ipswich are 4 points down
In the 23 equivalent fixtures to Bolton. - Ipswich are 9 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Derby. - Ipswich are 2 points up
In the 22 equivalent fixtures to Plymouth - Ipswich are 10 points down
In the 21 equivalent fixtures to Sheff Wed - Ipswich are 4 points down

Of the other teams that have played FGR (H) and MKD (A), they’ve all got 3 points
Of the other teams that have played Burton (H) and Accy (H), they all got 3 points so we must win those games just to keep pace with our rivals.

It’s our following games where we can make up ground.


After 27 equivalent fixtures, we are:

6 points down to Sheff Wed
8 points down to Plymouth
9 points down to Barnsley
2 points up on Derby (after 29 equivalent fixtures)
12 points up on Bolton

Home wins against PV, Exeter and Wycombe would gain us 7 points back on Barnsley and 3 points on Plymouth.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:38 - Apr 1 with 642 viewsringwoodblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 22:35 - Mar 21 by ringwoodblue

After 27 equivalent fixtures, we are:

6 points down to Sheff Wed
8 points down to Plymouth
9 points down to Barnsley
2 points up on Derby (after 29 equivalent fixtures)
12 points up on Bolton

Home wins against PV, Exeter and Wycombe would gain us 7 points back on Barnsley and 3 points on Plymouth.


Just an update on the picture from equivalent fixtures. Town are:

2 points down to Sheff Wed after 30 equivalent fixtures
8 points down to Plymouth after 28 equivalent fixtures
3 points down to Barnsley after 30 equivalent fixtures
2 points up on Derby after 29 equivalent fixtures
15 points up on Bolton after 30 equivalent fixtures
8 points up on Peterborough after 33 equivalent fixtures

If we beat Wycombe on Fri:

That will put us level with Barnsley provided they beat Burton
We can’t gain on Sheff Wed on Fri as we lost to Oxford and they beat Wycombe
Plymouth would have to drop points against Morecambe for us to gain on them as they beat Wycombe.

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Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:58 - Apr 1 with 557 viewspointofblue

Equivalent fixture analysis on 20:38 - Apr 1 by ringwoodblue

Just an update on the picture from equivalent fixtures. Town are:

2 points down to Sheff Wed after 30 equivalent fixtures
8 points down to Plymouth after 28 equivalent fixtures
3 points down to Barnsley after 30 equivalent fixtures
2 points up on Derby after 29 equivalent fixtures
15 points up on Bolton after 30 equivalent fixtures
8 points up on Peterborough after 33 equivalent fixtures

If we beat Wycombe on Fri:

That will put us level with Barnsley provided they beat Burton
We can’t gain on Sheff Wed on Fri as we lost to Oxford and they beat Wycombe
Plymouth would have to drop points against Morecambe for us to gain on them as they beat Wycombe.


So basically, since the start of the run, we've only gained two points on Plymouth when comparing the equivalent fixtures. That's quite something.

Saying that, will take being two points off them in the table quite happily, considering where we were.

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