| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… 11:08 - Sep 6 with 1466 views | Matt_Netherlands |
Seen a few people be 0/3. If there’s 10k members and roughly 1,250 ballot tickets per game then it’s about a 1/8 chance. So on average people will end up with two wins per season, assuming every member enters for every game - which they won’t.
Wonder if the club have rules / algorithms in place where people can’t win two games in a Row or if unsuccessful people get a better chance the next time around etc?
Similarly, there will be some lucky and smug people who probably walk away with 7/8 ballot wins.
1,250 calculation as follows….
30,000 capacity
- 21,000 ST
- 3,000 away
- 1,000 comps, hospitality etc
Leaves 5,000 tickets
Clubs have said 25% of remaining capacity goes to ballot.
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| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… on 12:42 - Sep 6 with 1316 views | Freddies_Ears |
I make it that, after 8 ballots, you have a equal chance of having "won" more or less than 1 ticket. Likelihood after 19 ballots of having zero "wins" is very low, but not zero. Some will have managed several "wins", and an ever-decreasing number zero. |  | | |
| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… on 13:20 - Sep 6 with 1206 views | BlueJudge |
| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… on 12:42 - Sep 6 by Freddies_Ears |
I make it that, after 8 ballots, you have a equal chance of having "won" more or less than 1 ticket. Likelihood after 19 ballots of having zero "wins" is very low, but not zero. Some will have managed several "wins", and an ever-decreasing number zero. |
Also add in the reduction if you are entering the ballot with ‘Friends & Family’. That would reduce the probability massively. | | | |
| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… on 14:06 - Sep 6 with 1113 views | Vaughan8 |
I don't know if anything has been published about how it works in detail but do they have some sort of algorithm that if you get a ticket, you have less chance of getting one in the next few, or is it a straight ballot every time? | | | |
| Wonder if anyone will go 0/19 in the ballot… on 14:31 - Sep 6 with 1025 views | tommcd |
If I can remember GCSE probability (good chance I've got this wrong!): Assuming a 1/8 chance of success (meaning a 7/8 chance of loss), over the course of a season, with average luck you would expect:
Probability of a win in the ballot sometime in the season (assuming an unweighted ballot everytime):
Win in match1 OR win in match2 OR win in match3 OR win in match4 OR ...
Which is: (1/8) + (1/8) + (1/8) + (1/8) + ...
Equivalent to (1/8) * 19 = 2.38 = 238%
Hence you would 'expect' at least 2 ballot wins throughout the season.
But there is a statistical chance you might go the whole season without a win. The probability of going the whole season without a ballot win is (assuming an unweighted ballot everytime):
Lose in match1 AND lose in match2 AND lose in match 3 AND lose in match4 AND ...
Which is: (7/8) * (7/8) * (7/8) * (7/8) * ...
Equivalent to (7/8)^19 = 0.079 = 7.9% [Post edited 6 Sep 2024 14:32]
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