| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities 08:30 - Mar 30 with 1114 views | tractordownsouth |
Overall, they've given us a 38% chance of finishing in the top two (15% first and 23% second) but a 58% chance of getting promoted.
So presumably they don't have us as favourites for the playoffs. Not saying we necessarily would be but it would interesting to see how they worked it out.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
(Edit: they do make us favourite for the playoffs, I got the numbers wrong. As someone who considers themselves to be quite good at maths, my pride has been somewhat dented) [Post edited 30 Mar 2023 8:48]
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:39 - Mar 30 with 1017 views | positivity |
don't know if it's as nuanced as this, but i can't think of another explanation...
it may be based on the fact that if we get in the playoffs, we'll have slumped back a bit, whereas if a team like wycombe/derby/posh make it they'll presumably be on good form.
it said (before wednesday's game!) that our most likely fnishing position is 3rd, is there historical data on that being a less succesful position in the playoffs that might be informing their model? |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:41 - Mar 30 with 1005 views | tractordownsouth |
| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:39 - Mar 30 by positivity |
don't know if it's as nuanced as this, but i can't think of another explanation...
it may be based on the fact that if we get in the playoffs, we'll have slumped back a bit, whereas if a team like wycombe/derby/posh make it they'll presumably be on good form.
it said (before wednesday's game!) that our most likely fnishing position is 3rd, is there historical data on that being a less succesful position in the playoffs that might be informing their model? |
Yeah I thought it could be that, or maybe our record against other top six sides? It's not especially bad but Barnsley and Plymouth's are better. | |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:41 - Mar 30 with 1004 views | GeoffSentence |
I think they still make us favourites from the play offs
They give us a 62% chance of being in the pay offs and a 58% chance of promotion, so by my reckoning that is about 36% chance of promotion via the play offs. (.62*58)
Barnelsy on the other hand have a 78% chance of being in the play offs and a 44% chance of promotion , so by my reckoning that is about 32% via the play offs. (.78*44)
Statisticians over to you to pull my half-@rsed maths to pieces. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:43 - Mar 30 with 982 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
58% is higher than all the teams below us which surely makes us favourites for what it matters.
I still think we have to win all our remaining games for automatic promotion sadly. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:44 - Mar 30 with 976 views | surreyblue |
I think it does make us favourites - someone check my maths but:
- 58% chance of promotion, of which 38% is automatically and 20% is through the playoffs
- 62% chance of being in the playoffs
- 20% / 62% = c32% chance of being promoted if we are in the playoffs.
So better than the equal weighted 1-in-4.
In comparison using the same logic, Barnsley has a 28% chance of winning the playoffs if they are in them, Bolton a 25% chance, Derby a 22% chance.
So we are favourites, but like other things on there maybe not as clear cut as we might think or like. Barnsley are most likely to go up through the playoffs (22%), but mostly because they have more chance of being in them.
EDIT: somewhat surprisingly, if they end up in the playoffs, Sheffield Wednesday have a 21% chance of winning them, and Plymouth only 15%! [Post edited 30 Mar 2023 8:51]
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:46 - Mar 30 with 958 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
Reading websites like that will give you an ulcer.
If it happens, it happens. Just enjoy the rollercoaster and a finish to a season that we are actually involved in. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:47 - Mar 30 with 955 views | tractordownsouth |
| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 08:43 - Mar 30 by BanksterDebtSlave |
58% is higher than all the teams below us which surely makes us favourites for what it matters.
I still think we have to win all our remaining games for automatic promotion sadly. |
You're right, apologies for my dodgy maths.
I was taking it as 100% divided by four being the benchmark but obviously there are more than four teams who could potentially be in the playoffs at this stage. | |
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| FiveThirtyEight promotion probabilities on 09:35 - Mar 30 with 793 views | unbelievablue |
On a related note, Nate Silver seems to have pretty much lost the plot over the past few years. |  |
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