| According to Skybet 23:46 - May 2 with 1799 views | The_Romford_Blue |
We are 7/2 to be promoted next year. Third favs of the 15 sides in the betting.
Scum 5/2 favs. Personally reckon the 6/1 about Swansea is far too big.
Everton go down and everyone would be pushed out a point. My firm haven’t priced up yet but we will be around 4/1 for Ipswich promotion fwiw when they sort the market out (week after next I believe is the scheduled plan). |  |
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| According to Skybet on 01:07 - May 3 with 1668 views | Vegtablue |
On Sunday Rommers one online bookmaker had priced up Plymouth to win the league at 4/7, but at the same time were offering 6/5 on them to beat Port Vale. So a 64% chance of the title but only a 45% chance of winning the match. Meanwhile their odds on Ipswich to beat Fleetwood were 1/3, so 75% probability. Clear inconsistencies in the outright vs match result markets!
The Plymouth odds against Port Vale have now been brought in line to 7/10. |  | | |
| According to Skybet on 09:16 - May 3 with 1287 views | HighgateBlue |
| According to Skybet on 01:07 - May 3 by Vegtablue |
On Sunday Rommers one online bookmaker had priced up Plymouth to win the league at 4/7, but at the same time were offering 6/5 on them to beat Port Vale. So a 64% chance of the title but only a 45% chance of winning the match. Meanwhile their odds on Ipswich to beat Fleetwood were 1/3, so 75% probability. Clear inconsistencies in the outright vs match result markets!
The Plymouth odds against Port Vale have now been brought in line to 7/10. |
The odds in each market will of course depend on what's been staked on each market. If there's little money staked on one or more markets, there might be minor inconsistencies until the market spots it and corrects.
But I don't see too much wrong with the odds you quote (in terms of internal logic - one can always express views as to how likely one thinks one outcome is).
I'll take your percentage figures as correct.
So the odds say that Plymouth have a 45% chance of winning the match. So if the weekend is played out 100 times, they would win 45 times, and each and every one of those times, they'd win the league, as no team can catch them if they win.
The odds say Plymouth have 64% chance of promotion, 19 percentage points higher than the probability of them winning their last game. This means 19 times out of 100 they would fail to win, but still go up. We have a 25 in 100 chance of failing to beat Fleetwood. Some of those 25 instances would be losses. All such losses would result in Plymouth winning the league. The remainder of those 25 instances would be Ipswich draws. All Ipswich draws would result in Plymouth winning the league, unless Plymouth lose. I don't have a problem accepting that only 6 of the 25 instances in which Ipswich lose or draw would entail Plymouth losing. I can't imagine that 6 in 25 is that different from the probability of Plymouth losing (and I would rule out Plymouth's result being affected to any material extent by what is happening at Fleetwood, not least because there's no way of accounting for that objectively).
So I don't really get where the clear inconsistency is said to be. If there's an inconsistency of any size between the three markets (Ipswich game, Plymouth game, Title race) then one could arbitrage it - what would be your strategy to do so? |  | | |
| According to Skybet on 09:19 - May 3 with 1274 views | tractordownsouth |
I don't rate Swansea all that highly, they've got a habit of being lower midtable and then having a late season run to paper over the cracks when there's not a lot to play for. Russell Martin is at loggerheads with the board a lot too, recalling Whittaker against his will being a good example. |  |
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| According to Skybet on 13:09 - May 3 with 1056 views | Vegtablue |
| According to Skybet on 09:16 - May 3 by HighgateBlue |
The odds in each market will of course depend on what's been staked on each market. If there's little money staked on one or more markets, there might be minor inconsistencies until the market spots it and corrects.
But I don't see too much wrong with the odds you quote (in terms of internal logic - one can always express views as to how likely one thinks one outcome is).
I'll take your percentage figures as correct.
So the odds say that Plymouth have a 45% chance of winning the match. So if the weekend is played out 100 times, they would win 45 times, and each and every one of those times, they'd win the league, as no team can catch them if they win.
The odds say Plymouth have 64% chance of promotion, 19 percentage points higher than the probability of them winning their last game. This means 19 times out of 100 they would fail to win, but still go up. We have a 25 in 100 chance of failing to beat Fleetwood. Some of those 25 instances would be losses. All such losses would result in Plymouth winning the league. The remainder of those 25 instances would be Ipswich draws. All Ipswich draws would result in Plymouth winning the league, unless Plymouth lose. I don't have a problem accepting that only 6 of the 25 instances in which Ipswich lose or draw would entail Plymouth losing. I can't imagine that 6 in 25 is that different from the probability of Plymouth losing (and I would rule out Plymouth's result being affected to any material extent by what is happening at Fleetwood, not least because there's no way of accounting for that objectively).
So I don't really get where the clear inconsistency is said to be. If there's an inconsistency of any size between the three markets (Ipswich game, Plymouth game, Title race) then one could arbitrage it - what would be your strategy to do so? |
My logic was much simpler than yours 😂
I reasoned that if Plymouth pick up 0-1 points 55 times out of 100 and we pick up 3 points 75 times out of 100, Plymouth shouldn't be significant favourites to win. I selected the modal outcome of each event and celebrated our victory!
I concede the maths lol, hadn't reflected on a large numbers of our wins being for nought, but I'm not surprised to see Plymouth's odds have reduced substantially since they were put up. Probably plenty of people using simpleton logic like me! | | | |
| According to Skybet on 19:09 - May 3 with 869 views | Powrigan |
The scum being favourites discredits those odds straight away!! |  | | |
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