| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:33 - Jun 11 with 2165 views | nodge_blue |
The danger is this becomes a blue print for tories and reform.
I tell ya the centre ground is where we need to be and stop the polarisation. Theres not enough true support for Corbyn or Farage. But the sensible middle ground people may not be strong enough to hold the ahit show together. |  |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:41 - Jun 11 with 2148 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:33 - Jun 11 by nodge_blue |
The danger is this becomes a blue print for tories and reform.
I tell ya the centre ground is where we need to be and stop the polarisation. Theres not enough true support for Corbyn or Farage. But the sensible middle ground people may not be strong enough to hold the ahit show together. |
It's going to happen and the continued move to the right of the so called centre is part of the process. |  |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:06 - Jun 11 with 2086 views | Guthrum |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:33 - Jun 11 by nodge_blue |
The danger is this becomes a blue print for tories and reform.
I tell ya the centre ground is where we need to be and stop the polarisation. Theres not enough true support for Corbyn or Farage. But the sensible middle ground people may not be strong enough to hold the ahit show together. |
The difference being that National Rally are - post 2022 - a significantly larger party in the Assembly than Les Republicains (even with the latter's allies). Thus an obvious refuge for a wing of a declining party. I can't see that happening in this UK General Election. Even losing badly, the Tories will vastly outnumber Reform in the HoC.
Plus it looks to be splitting LR, as an alliance with Reform would do the the Conservatives. |  |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:14 - Jun 11 with 2054 views | blueislander |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:41 - Jun 11 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's going to happen and the continued move to the right of the so called centre is part of the process. |
You’re a bundle of joy aren’t you? I would wait to see the results of the various elections before arriving at that conclusion. In the UK an awful lot of Reform votes will be a reflection of the dreadful state of the Tories rather than conviction of the policies of Reform . Even so I doubt whether Reform will actually win any seats |  | | |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:14 - Jun 11 with 2054 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:06 - Jun 11 by Guthrum |
The difference being that National Rally are - post 2022 - a significantly larger party in the Assembly than Les Republicains (even with the latter's allies). Thus an obvious refuge for a wing of a declining party. I can't see that happening in this UK General Election. Even losing badly, the Tories will vastly outnumber Reform in the HoC.
Plus it looks to be splitting LR, as an alliance with Reform would do the the Conservatives. |
Also, I’ve always thought that Farage is more interested in embarrassing the Tories than ever collaborating with them. He seems to have a personal vendetta against them. That was the impression I got years back when dealing with some of his people (horrible lot they were). |  |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:34 - Jun 11 with 1999 views | Guthrum |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:14 - Jun 11 by blueislander |
You’re a bundle of joy aren’t you? I would wait to see the results of the various elections before arriving at that conclusion. In the UK an awful lot of Reform votes will be a reflection of the dreadful state of the Tories rather than conviction of the policies of Reform . Even so I doubt whether Reform will actually win any seats |
On 15%, 17% and 18%, the LibDems, Reform and the Conservatives are all well below the "get lots of seats" threshold, which is somewhere around 30%*. Edit: Numbers from the YouGov poll linked in another thread.
However, the Cons will still have high concentrations in certain areas, meaning they pick up a decent number of seats, the same being partially true of the LibDems. Reform support lacks many of those points of concentration (Clacton, Thanet, maybe bits of Lincolnshire?) being too evenly spread at a low level to actually win more than one or two at most (Greens have the same problem).
* There is a level of electoral support below which a party may gain no seats, a couple of dozen, at most around 50. Only a few percentage points more, just above the line, numbers suddenly jump to 200+. The line usually falls somewhere around 30%, give or take a bit. [Post edited 11 Jun 2024 21:36]
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:38 - Jun 11 with 1959 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:34 - Jun 11 by Guthrum |
On 15%, 17% and 18%, the LibDems, Reform and the Conservatives are all well below the "get lots of seats" threshold, which is somewhere around 30%*. Edit: Numbers from the YouGov poll linked in another thread.
However, the Cons will still have high concentrations in certain areas, meaning they pick up a decent number of seats, the same being partially true of the LibDems. Reform support lacks many of those points of concentration (Clacton, Thanet, maybe bits of Lincolnshire?) being too evenly spread at a low level to actually win more than one or two at most (Greens have the same problem).
* There is a level of electoral support below which a party may gain no seats, a couple of dozen, at most around 50. Only a few percentage points more, just above the line, numbers suddenly jump to 200+. The line usually falls somewhere around 30%, give or take a bit. [Post edited 11 Jun 2024 21:36]
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Which of course, is one of the arguments in favour of FPP. Noisy minorities don't get a big say. Which can cut both ways... | | | |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:39 - Jun 11 with 1957 views | blueislander |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:34 - Jun 11 by Guthrum |
On 15%, 17% and 18%, the LibDems, Reform and the Conservatives are all well below the "get lots of seats" threshold, which is somewhere around 30%*. Edit: Numbers from the YouGov poll linked in another thread.
However, the Cons will still have high concentrations in certain areas, meaning they pick up a decent number of seats, the same being partially true of the LibDems. Reform support lacks many of those points of concentration (Clacton, Thanet, maybe bits of Lincolnshire?) being too evenly spread at a low level to actually win more than one or two at most (Greens have the same problem).
* There is a level of electoral support below which a party may gain no seats, a couple of dozen, at most around 50. Only a few percentage points more, just above the line, numbers suddenly jump to 200+. The line usually falls somewhere around 30%, give or take a bit. [Post edited 11 Jun 2024 21:36]
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I can see the LibDems getting at least 20mseats. | | | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:45 - Jun 11 with 1938 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:06 - Jun 11 by Guthrum |
The difference being that National Rally are - post 2022 - a significantly larger party in the Assembly than Les Republicains (even with the latter's allies). Thus an obvious refuge for a wing of a declining party. I can't see that happening in this UK General Election. Even losing badly, the Tories will vastly outnumber Reform in the HoC.
Plus it looks to be splitting LR, as an alliance with Reform would do the the Conservatives. |
But the Tories will move towards Farage type politics. | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:46 - Jun 11 with 1934 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:14 - Jun 11 by blueislander |
You’re a bundle of joy aren’t you? I would wait to see the results of the various elections before arriving at that conclusion. In the UK an awful lot of Reform votes will be a reflection of the dreadful state of the Tories rather than conviction of the policies of Reform . Even so I doubt whether Reform will actually win any seats |
Bundle of joy or realist, have you looked at your supposed centre ground choices? | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 23:08 - Jun 11 with 1794 views | Guthrum |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:39 - Jun 11 by blueislander |
I can see the LibDems getting at least 20mseats. |
I could see them getting 20, maybe more. Wouldn't be very surprised at double that, even. They have areas of concentration (e.g. in the South West) where they're very likely to gain MPs, plus other areas where people moving away from the Conservatives will go to them rather than Labour. | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 23:13 - Jun 11 with 1773 views | positivity |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 23:08 - Jun 11 by Guthrum |
I could see them getting 20, maybe more. Wouldn't be very surprised at double that, even. They have areas of concentration (e.g. in the South West) where they're very likely to gain MPs, plus other areas where people moving away from the Conservatives will go to them rather than Labour. |
it depends how much tactical voting happens, i get the impression that it's becoming more widespread, but proof will be in the results.
could see them pushing 50 if labour and green voters lend their votes as they already do in byelections... | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 23:14 - Jun 11 with 1767 views | Guthrum |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:45 - Jun 11 by BanksterDebtSlave |
But the Tories will move towards Farage type politics. |
A rump of the Conservatives definitely will, at least for now. Whether that results in defections, a split or an eventual veer back towards the centre ground (similar to their - less extreme - course between 1997 and 2010), depends upon how many MPs they end up with and whom, which candidates they find to stand in the future and external circumstances.
The flow of right-wing money from the US and other places may dry up at some point, which will also make a difference to what style of conservatism is in vogue. | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 23:15 - Jun 11 with 1765 views | positivity |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:45 - Jun 11 by BanksterDebtSlave |
But the Tories will move towards Farage type politics. |
no guarantee of success there in britain, tacks right under the likes of howard and duncan smith were disastrous before | |
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| Right...right....right....right...right... on 11:06 - Jun 12 with 1537 views | victorywilhappen |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 21:46 - Jun 11 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Bundle of joy or realist, have you looked at your supposed centre ground choices? |
Maybe this:
10 per cent far left
10 per cent far right
20 per cent don't engage
20 per cent float
40 per cent middle ground
At a guess.
20 per cent shouldn't engage but do. |  | | |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 11:21 - Jun 12 with 1502 views | baxterbasics |
| Right...right....right....right...right... on 20:41 - Jun 11 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's going to happen and the continued move to the right of the so called centre is part of the process. |
Not really. The centre ground is more like a pendulum that swings back and forth in cycles. The longer we have a right-leaning government, the more the public moves the opposite way, and vice versa.
Europe has always flirted with the extremes in both directions in a more exaggerated way than the UK. Our two-party/FPTP system helps in that regard, though as our politics become more fractious and 'narrow-issue' focussed, and apathy about our system creeps in, this is becoming more under stress. |  |
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