| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? 21:22 - Sep 17 with 882 views | ringwoodblue |
- Win many more of our home games
- Take points off the other promoted teams and the other teams around us
- Convert draws into wins
Think we are gonna need 44 points to stay up this season so we need to get at least 8 points from Cov and Hull and that leaves 10 more wins or 8 wins and 6 draws from the other 30 matches which is do’able but will be tough.
[Post edited 17 Sep 21:24]
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 21:56 - Sep 17 with 797 views | Guthrum |
44 points is about the highest it's ever been in the 38-game Prem era.
While there is some weakness among the "top" teams (but not Arsenal or ManC), others, notably Leeds and Hull, are taking their place. But there's a lot of teams down the bottom end who would have to make quite startling turnarounds to get that many points.
Spurs would need to go from 0.5ppg to averaging 1.24ppg for the remainder of the season to even make 44 points. Fulham, Villa and Cov are much worse off than that, Palace and Bournemouth little better. We, on the other hand, who are currently on 1.5ppg, would need only just over one point per game to make your threshold.
That is the value of a good start.
Tho I think 40 is a much more realistic cut-off. |  |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 22:18 - Sep 17 with 732 views | mellowblue |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 21:56 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
44 points is about the highest it's ever been in the 38-game Prem era.
While there is some weakness among the "top" teams (but not Arsenal or ManC), others, notably Leeds and Hull, are taking their place. But there's a lot of teams down the bottom end who would have to make quite startling turnarounds to get that many points.
Spurs would need to go from 0.5ppg to averaging 1.24ppg for the remainder of the season to even make 44 points. Fulham, Villa and Cov are much worse off than that, Palace and Bournemouth little better. We, on the other hand, who are currently on 1.5ppg, would need only just over one point per game to make your threshold.
That is the value of a good start.
Tho I think 40 is a much more realistic cut-off. |
so we are 15% of the way to 40 points and it is mid September. Promising. |  | | |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 22:28 - Sep 17 with 694 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 21:56 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
44 points is about the highest it's ever been in the 38-game Prem era.
While there is some weakness among the "top" teams (but not Arsenal or ManC), others, notably Leeds and Hull, are taking their place. But there's a lot of teams down the bottom end who would have to make quite startling turnarounds to get that many points.
Spurs would need to go from 0.5ppg to averaging 1.24ppg for the remainder of the season to even make 44 points. Fulham, Villa and Cov are much worse off than that, Palace and Bournemouth little better. We, on the other hand, who are currently on 1.5ppg, would need only just over one point per game to make your threshold.
That is the value of a good start.
Tho I think 40 is a much more realistic cut-off. |
Except for the top 3 or 4, I see this season being much closer throughout much of the table (Coventry possibly being the one club everyone takes points off unless they turn things around rapidly).
If 15 clubs are all taking points off each other, the table will be more compressed, and it will be much more competitive around the relegation cut off. I see 42+ points being needed to be clear of relegation this season | | | |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 22:30 - Sep 17 with 686 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 21:56 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
44 points is about the highest it's ever been in the 38-game Prem era.
While there is some weakness among the "top" teams (but not Arsenal or ManC), others, notably Leeds and Hull, are taking their place. But there's a lot of teams down the bottom end who would have to make quite startling turnarounds to get that many points.
Spurs would need to go from 0.5ppg to averaging 1.24ppg for the remainder of the season to even make 44 points. Fulham, Villa and Cov are much worse off than that, Palace and Bournemouth little better. We, on the other hand, who are currently on 1.5ppg, would need only just over one point per game to make your threshold.
That is the value of a good start.
Tho I think 40 is a much more realistic cut-off. |
More importantly Guthers how many PPG do we need to make Europe? |  |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 08:47 - Sep 18 with 345 views | Metal_Hacker |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 22:30 - Sep 17 by The_Romford_Blue |
More importantly Guthers how many PPG do we need to make Europe? |
You spelt Champions League incorrectly Rommers |  |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 09:55 - Sep 18 with 282 views | Guthrum |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 22:30 - Sep 17 by The_Romford_Blue |
More importantly Guthers how many PPG do we need to make Europe? |
About the rate we're going at now. | |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 11:23 - Sep 18 with 228 views | HighgateBlue |
The evidence so far is very promising.
We'd won as many home games on 22 August this time round as we had by the end of May last time!
The second bullet point is of course going to be important. Our results against Sunderland and Palace are encouraging in that respect. We couldn't have done any more so far, because plainly Liverpool, Man U and Arsenal are not going to be relegation fodder, and we've won all the other games.
As for converting draws into wins, this is so so important. It's all very well 'making yourself difficult to beat', but a win is worth three times as much as a draw. In the last 20 years, only two teams have stayed up with 7 wins, and two teams have even been relegated with 10 wins. So you have to bank on needing 8 as an absolute bare minimum really. And it goes without saying that if you don't get more draws than that as well, you certainly won't stay up with 8 wins.
Last time round we only got 4 wins, and only 1 at home. We weren't good enough and we know that.
Being defensively naive is obviously not good, but given that it's better to win one and lose one than draw two (50% more points), I think GON has the right approach. I can't see us struggling for goals. Mourinho's Chelsea could realistically aim to win every game 1-0 and succeed frequently. We can't.
We bought two expensive strikers rather than 17 right wingers, and we're better for it. We've kept our best creative players, and added better in Enciso, and plenty of industry at least in Maeda. Davis has been given licence, and he's used it. He has not been asked to do weird s**t like tuck in.
There will be rubs of the green that go our way. The opening game of the season can be unrepresentative of the season, and Sunderland have a difficult second album to make. Plus Palace went down to 10 men and even Flemming accepts that that was a bit of a heist. But you must win at least some of the potential heists to stay up, unless everything just clicks unbelievably, a la Sunderland last year.
It could be said, glass half empty, that we're the only team Liverpool and Man Utd have managed to beat, and both of them beat us at a canter in the end. But those are not the matches that will matter in the final reckoning, and of course there were positives to take from those games.
I don't think we're going to need 44 points. Last year was unusual in that there were two particularly bad teams, and Sunderland had a break out season. 2 particularly bad teams raises the number of points needed for 17th, generally speaking. If Hull do a Sunderland, then good luck to them, and that will make our task harder. But I don't think they will. Even if I'm wrong, the occasions on which 40 points is not enough are vanishingly rare.
We can expect Coventry to struggle - their start is legendary. We can expect Spurs to get more than 40 points (although we'd love it if they didn't). But beyond that, it's tough to work out how many points we're going to need. It's down to how many genuinely lame teams there are. I think it's a fool's errand to try to predict whether there will be 2 lame teams, or 3, or 4 this year.
If the bottom 2 are cut adrift, then the next two may be battling it out for 36 points, 38, or 40. If the bottom 3 are cut adrift, then the 17th placed side may stay up with 32, 35, 38, 41. Who knows.
We don't know what European competition, losing their manager, general cycles, and a poor league start will do to Palace. We don't know what losing their best players, and an even poorer league start will do to Villa. We don't know what losing their manager, a poor start, and squad turnover will do to Fulham.
But I do accept that the evidence of Hull's start makes it at least possible that we face another situation like last season, where at least one of the 3 promoted teams is solid, and if it's not us, then we need TWO of the promoted teams to be solid, which leaves the question: how do we find 3 genuinely lame teams such that the points tally needed to stay up is not too high? It may be a difficult season to finish 17th, but to some extent this conversation is a little like Championship fans saying *every single year* that their division is getting harder, only for someone to come down and be in total disarray, like Leicester, or seemingly Burnley this year.
If we carry on beating the teams who may struggle, that's all we can ask. The likes of Everton (next up) will be a real test of our level at this precise moment. But Everton away is a match that you'd hope to draw and be delighted if you won. It's not even in the top 50% of matches you'd be aiming to win, it seems to me.
October and November look /extremely/ interesting, and I can see GON somewhat sacrificing the Man City away game in order to give us a chance in the others. But hey, as long as we don't lose it 5-0, the lot up the road can't say a thing. |  | | |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 11:24 - Sep 18 with 228 views | Billywitch |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 21:56 - Sep 17 by Guthrum |
44 points is about the highest it's ever been in the 38-game Prem era.
While there is some weakness among the "top" teams (but not Arsenal or ManC), others, notably Leeds and Hull, are taking their place. But there's a lot of teams down the bottom end who would have to make quite startling turnarounds to get that many points.
Spurs would need to go from 0.5ppg to averaging 1.24ppg for the remainder of the season to even make 44 points. Fulham, Villa and Cov are much worse off than that, Palace and Bournemouth little better. We, on the other hand, who are currently on 1.5ppg, would need only just over one point per game to make your threshold.
That is the value of a good start.
Tho I think 40 is a much more realistic cut-off. |
"That is the value of a good start"
And why some won't like it, but certain games are viewed as must wins (or at the very least, not lose) | | | |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 12:53 - Sep 18 with 150 views | Guthrum |
| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 11:24 - Sep 18 by Billywitch |
"That is the value of a good start"
And why some won't like it, but certain games are viewed as must wins (or at the very least, not lose) |
As I've said before, you run out of games in which to put things right very quickly in the Prem. | |
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| Can we do this season what we failed to do last time in the PL? on 13:11 - Sep 18 with 116 views | WolfieAtTheBack |
Given the games we have through Oct, Nov and very early Dec there is no reason we cannot go on a decent run.
I might be being overly confident but I think we could win all of those games with the exception of Manchester City (a). That would be 7 wins, imagine it! |  | | |
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