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Dunning Kruger Effect on 09:09 - Mar 29 by GeoffSentence
Its existence explains a lot.
What that doesn't cover is why know nothings are so confident in their own ability. A point that vexes me.
There is an old military adage that a swift wrong answer is better than delay to find the correct one. Possibly deriving from the idea that, in an emergency, action - any action - is better than hesitation and that errors can be cleared up afterwards. Instinct and training also come into it.
Another aspect is that the expert can often delve into too much detail and, by overloading with data, confuse the issue. One of the skills of a decisionmaker is to cut through the excess, boil things down to only the most significant facts and swiftly evaluate their importance. The problem comes when the decisionmaker starts to ignore expert information, invent his own, or to fall into the trap of only looking at things which fit his theory.
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