| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll 10:57 - Apr 13 with 1705 views | ellerblue |
I read on here that Germanys low death rate is due to testing, but in my mind there are also other factors to be taken into account. I live in Düsseldorf and have been following the Robert Koch Institute, which is the german equivilant of uk public health office. I think the demographics of Germany have also contributed to low death rates,We have 83 million population, the biggest mass urbinization is Berlin 3 million followed by Hamburg 1.6 million, so no realy big cities compared to London etc., 65% of germanys population is between 15-59 years of age, and this age group has contributed to 74% of all cases, but obviosly this age group is more resilient as only having a 10% death rate whereas 22% of population is over 65 years oid they have contributed to 86% of total deaths, so my opinion is that as we have a low age average (46) as opposed to Italy(63) we have less mortality rate. This is just my thoughts for what there worth anyway stay safe and remember a space could save a life. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:04 - Apr 13 with 1659 views | Pinewoodblue |
If testing were the only valid measurement the number of deaths in Italy would not be greater than the figure for Germany as Italy has tested a greater proportion of the populous.
Only in-depth analysis will fully explain the differences between countries and that will take a long time. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:08 - Apr 13 with 1631 views | Radlett_blue |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:04 - Apr 13 by Pinewoodblue |
If testing were the only valid measurement the number of deaths in Italy would not be greater than the figure for Germany as Italy has tested a greater proportion of the populous.
Only in-depth analysis will fully explain the differences between countries and that will take a long time. |
Absolutely, every country has different characteristics, especially population density, while comparing figures where the data collection is very different is massively flawed. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:09 - Apr 13 with 1628 views | ellerblue |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:04 - Apr 13 by Pinewoodblue |
If testing were the only valid measurement the number of deaths in Italy would not be greater than the figure for Germany as Italy has tested a greater proportion of the populous.
Only in-depth analysis will fully explain the differences between countries and that will take a long time. |
sorry i should have said that testing could not be the only reason. | |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:13 - Apr 13 with 1617 views | Guthrum |
There will also be oddities in disease outbreaks. For example, areas of what is now Poland was relatively unaffected by the Black Death epidemic of the late 1340s, which devastated virtually the whole of the rest of Europe and southern Scandinavia. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:13 - Apr 13 with 1608 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:08 - Apr 13 by Radlett_blue |
Absolutely, every country has different characteristics, especially population density, while comparing figures where the data collection is very different is massively flawed. |
This isn't definite info but I would imagine that countries also have different ways of reporting figures.
I seem to remember France had some very impressive CJD figures, they buried the cows before they were tested. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:31 - Apr 13 with 1543 views | gordon |
I'd be a bit cautious about making too many inferences from demographic data, and I don't think your numbers comparing Germany and Italy are correct - median age in 2015 was 45.9 in Germany and 45.4 in Italy.
The age range or average age of populations may explain some difference between rates of infections between e.g. African countries where average age is very low, and Western Europe / North America where average age is much higher, but I'd think it very unlikely to explain differences between Western European countries with very similar demographics.
Similarly, population density has been thrown up a few times on here but again it's very unlikely to explain variation except at extremes. And anyway, population density is higher in Germany than in France, Spain or Italy. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 11:33]
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 12:18 - Apr 13 with 1482 views | ellerblue |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:31 - Apr 13 by gordon |
I'd be a bit cautious about making too many inferences from demographic data, and I don't think your numbers comparing Germany and Italy are correct - median age in 2015 was 45.9 in Germany and 45.4 in Italy.
The age range or average age of populations may explain some difference between rates of infections between e.g. African countries where average age is very low, and Western Europe / North America where average age is much higher, but I'd think it very unlikely to explain differences between Western European countries with very similar demographics.
Similarly, population density has been thrown up a few times on here but again it's very unlikely to explain variation except at extremes. And anyway, population density is higher in Germany than in France, Spain or Italy. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 11:33]
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The figures i qouted for Germany and Italy were the average age of those contracting coronavirus not the median age | |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 12:40 - Apr 13 with 1442 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:31 - Apr 13 by gordon |
I'd be a bit cautious about making too many inferences from demographic data, and I don't think your numbers comparing Germany and Italy are correct - median age in 2015 was 45.9 in Germany and 45.4 in Italy.
The age range or average age of populations may explain some difference between rates of infections between e.g. African countries where average age is very low, and Western Europe / North America where average age is much higher, but I'd think it very unlikely to explain differences between Western European countries with very similar demographics.
Similarly, population density has been thrown up a few times on here but again it's very unlikely to explain variation except at extremes. And anyway, population density is higher in Germany than in France, Spain or Italy. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 11:33]
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Density is relevant but possibly the reason for density makes a difference.
Slightly off topic( looking at US instead of Europe) mention has been made to the higher, per capita, death rate amongst non-whites in New York. Statistically true, but they maybe living in districts with a higher density. Going one step further it may just be it is a poorer district, higher percentage of population without full access to medical care.
We just don’t know and won’t until a full study is undertaken. Even then the truth may be hidden from us. | |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 12:57 - Apr 13 with 1408 views | NthQldITFC |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:08 - Apr 13 by Radlett_blue |
Absolutely, every country has different characteristics, especially population density, while comparing figures where the data collection is very different is massively flawed. |
This can't be emphasized enough, particularly when the general public might jump to erroneous conclusions from very rough data, and for example, start agitating for relaxing of pertinent containment measures. Not saying the OP or any sensible person would be doing so in this country at the moment, but I'm not sure about elsewhere. |  |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 14:37 - Apr 13 with 1339 views | BlueBadger |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 11:13 - Apr 13 by Guthrum |
There will also be oddities in disease outbreaks. For example, areas of what is now Poland was relatively unaffected by the Black Death epidemic of the late 1340s, which devastated virtually the whole of the rest of Europe and southern Scandinavia. |
We're probably a bit of an anomaly here in East Anglia at the moment as well. Every weekend I've worked for the last 3 weeks I've heard or have said myself) 'The sh1t is is probably going to hit this fan next weekend'.
I'm idly wondering if it's similar in places like Cornwall and the Western Isles. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 15:03]
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 16:38 - Apr 13 with 1240 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 14:37 - Apr 13 by BlueBadger |
We're probably a bit of an anomaly here in East Anglia at the moment as well. Every weekend I've worked for the last 3 weeks I've heard or have said myself) 'The sh1t is is probably going to hit this fan next weekend'.
I'm idly wondering if it's similar in places like Cornwall and the Western Isles. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 15:03]
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Think there is enough sh1t already hitting the fan but it is going to get a lot worse.
Edit deleted comment about differences between Ipswich and Colchester hospitals as seem I was wrong. Figures I looked at Saturday suggested Colchester death rate was much higher but latest EADT figures suggest they are similar. Journos quietly correct previous errors. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 16:44]
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 19:20 - Apr 13 with 1142 views | flimflam |
Are Germany specifically testing for covid-19 or just generic corona?
Its makes a difference as there are 7 corona viruses 4 of which are common colds. |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 19:22 - Apr 13 with 1138 views | flimflam |
| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 14:37 - Apr 13 by BlueBadger |
We're probably a bit of an anomaly here in East Anglia at the moment as well. Every weekend I've worked for the last 3 weeks I've heard or have said myself) 'The sh1t is is probably going to hit this fan next weekend'.
I'm idly wondering if it's similar in places like Cornwall and the Western Isles. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 15:03]
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I know a nurse in BSE and said they are fully stocked on safety equipment but are not having much to do after shutting most wards and diverting resource to dedicated wards for this pandemic. Maybe Suffolk will get of lighter than other denser populated counties. [Post edited 13 Apr 2020 19:24]
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| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Coronavirus Germany and low death toll on 19:43 - Apr 13 with 1103 views | BloomBlue |
The trouble is the way some people talk about testing you would think it's a cure. But Germany is something everyone needs to look at in terms of why the low death rate, but it could be many things. Age will be one consideration, I think Italy and the UK have the highest % of over 65's. Volume of people in built up areas, as you say Germany has a spread population. Also look at the deaths in the UK and the disproportionate deaths of ethnic minorities, is that a factor? I did also see on the BBC at the weekend that a high % of those who have died in the UK are above the recommended BMI score, the UK has the heighest number of overweight people of any Country in Europe, is weight a factor? I don't think we'll know the answer for some time. |  | | |
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