| The price of oil..... 07:59 - Apr 20 with 3847 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
U.S. $15, Brent Crude $27....Fracking is dead, expect many debt laden companies to go to the wall! |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 08:08 - Apr 20 with 2177 views | Steve_M |
Although the current drop probably reflects the fact that storage, including floating storage is largely full - tanker rates have been going up for weeks - and that demand is still much reduced. It won't stay that low permanently.
The thing about fracking is that, on a technical level, the marginal cost of production is tiny so the debt is largely occurred in the initial phase. That changes the response to low prices. |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 08:08 - Apr 20 with 2177 views | StokieBlue |
Not really just them though, Saudis domestic spending budget is based around a much higher oil price as is Russia's. It's their only really solid income.
I believe last time the frakers were just seized by their debtors or mothballed and then restarted when prices rise again.
SB [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 8:09]
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| The price of oil..... on 09:14 - Apr 20 with 2067 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The price of oil..... on 08:08 - Apr 20 by Steve_M |
Although the current drop probably reflects the fact that storage, including floating storage is largely full - tanker rates have been going up for weeks - and that demand is still much reduced. It won't stay that low permanently.
The thing about fracking is that, on a technical level, the marginal cost of production is tiny so the debt is largely occurred in the initial phase. That changes the response to low prices. |
They still need to service the debt but Stokie raises an interesting strategy in that regard...I bet their are some interesting terms post mothballing mind you! | |
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| The price of oil..... on 09:15 - Apr 20 with 2062 views | ElephantintheRoom |
worse still, will the collapse of its oil income threaten the sandpit's take over of sleeping giants Newcastle United? |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 09:42 - Apr 20 with 2026 views | Steve_M |
| The price of oil..... on 09:14 - Apr 20 by BanksterDebtSlave |
They still need to service the debt but Stokie raises an interesting strategy in that regard...I bet their are some interesting terms post mothballing mind you! |
Yes, don't think any of us are disagreeing here. Another reason for Trump to push further to re-open the economy whatever the public health consequences. | |
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| The price of oil..... on 10:07 - Apr 20 with 2000 views | Steve_M |
| The price of oil..... on 08:08 - Apr 20 by Steve_M |
Although the current drop probably reflects the fact that storage, including floating storage is largely full - tanker rates have been going up for weeks - and that demand is still much reduced. It won't stay that low permanently.
The thing about fracking is that, on a technical level, the marginal cost of production is tiny so the debt is largely occurred in the initial phase. That changes the response to low prices. |
A bit on floating storage here:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-tankers-storage/crude-oil-held-in- | |
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| The price of oil..... on 11:22 - Apr 20 with 1959 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The price of oil..... on 08:08 - Apr 20 by StokieBlue |
Not really just them though, Saudis domestic spending budget is based around a much higher oil price as is Russia's. It's their only really solid income.
I believe last time the frakers were just seized by their debtors or mothballed and then restarted when prices rise again.
SB [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 8:09]
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Saudi budget is based on $35 a barrel apparently, so anything above this was surplus.
They’re hurting now, but not as much as they could be. |  | | |
| The price of oil..... on 11:30 - Apr 20 with 1945 views | StokieBlue |
| The price of oil..... on 11:22 - Apr 20 by ElderGrizzly |
Saudi budget is based on $35 a barrel apparently, so anything above this was surplus.
They’re hurting now, but not as much as they could be. |
Interesting.
Last I read which was a few years ago it was a lot higher, more like 80 USD+. Given prices have been lower for a while I would not be surprised if they had lowered it.
Still going to be running a large deficit with those numbers though although they did recently get a cash injection from the sale of Aramco.
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| The price of oil..... on 11:35 - Apr 20 with 1935 views | Radlett_blue |
| The price of oil..... on 11:22 - Apr 20 by ElderGrizzly |
Saudi budget is based on $35 a barrel apparently, so anything above this was surplus.
They’re hurting now, but not as much as they could be. |
The Saudis are still forecasting a budget deficit of $50 billion this year & it's almost certainly going to be bigger, given the price of oil. They don't have money to throw around, however they might trumpet about their "Sovereign Wealth fund", which has effectively been built on debt, unlike the small gulf sheikdoms. |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 12:49 - Apr 20 with 1837 views | Guthrum |
| The price of oil..... on 11:30 - Apr 20 by StokieBlue |
Interesting.
Last I read which was a few years ago it was a lot higher, more like 80 USD+. Given prices have been lower for a while I would not be surprised if they had lowered it.
Still going to be running a large deficit with those numbers though although they did recently get a cash injection from the sale of Aramco.
SB |
Their cost of extraction is very low, so they have more headroom than most on profitability. |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 12:52 - Apr 20 with 1832 views | Steve_M |
| The price of oil..... on 12:03 - Apr 20 by midastouch |
I see what you mean, it's in absolute freefall again today.
This is a daily chart, so each candle indicates one day of price movement.
It's actually better to look at weekly or monthly charts to get a good overall idea of the longer-term market trends. When the moving averages are all sloping downwards on a longer timeframe (i.e. weekly or monthly) it indicates a strong downtrend is in play. The 200 day moving average is the king of them all. That's the most important one to watch out for. [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 12:04]
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| The price of oil..... on 12:54 - Apr 20 with 1831 views | StokieBlue |
| The price of oil..... on 12:49 - Apr 20 by Guthrum |
Their cost of extraction is very low, so they have more headroom than most on profitability. |
Indeed, they can still profit at these low prices but they can't cover their commitments which is the issue.
From late March:
"The International Monetary Fund reckons the kingdom needs oil to fetch around $83 a barrel to balance its state budget."
https://aljazeera.com/ajimpact/saudi-arabia-afford-wage-oil-price-war-2003141513
SB [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 12:54]
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| The price of oil..... on 13:54 - Apr 20 with 1773 views | midastouch |
| The price of oil..... on 13:40 - Apr 20 by midastouch |
It's down 35.5% on the day now, wow!
This is a 1 hour chart, you can see it had a big collapse on the hour timeframe where I've drawn a ring around it.
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By the way, you can get access to all the main charts for free via Tradingview.com (it's free to use - there are more features if you go on a paid subscription but I don't bother with any of that), you don't even need to have a broker account linked into it. I don't, I just look for a bit of interest, especially with what is happening in the world right now! You can only have 3 indicators on the chart at a time on the free version. But you don't want too many of those in any case as from what I can gather the best traders tend to trade on pure price action (at least those that aren't cheating with inside knowledge) and as such they have very basic clean charts (that way they are less likely to get analysis paralysis). You can play around with a demo account if you want on there but I haven't ever bothered.
You can add all manner of charts, so today I can see all of the following all just a click away:
The only thing really going up today seems to be Lockheed Martin so maybe somewhere in the world the war drums are getting ready to fire up again! :-(
The only indicators I have turned on are the 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages. I have them set as exponential moving averages instead of simple moving averages. There's a good article about those here: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122414/what-are-most-common-periods-use
Actually Deutsche Bank (DB) is up 5% currently today, and there was me saying it looked as good as toast yesterday on another thread, what do I know! :-) |  |
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| The price of oil..... on 14:44 - Apr 20 with 1723 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The price of oil..... on 13:54 - Apr 20 by midastouch |
By the way, you can get access to all the main charts for free via Tradingview.com (it's free to use - there are more features if you go on a paid subscription but I don't bother with any of that), you don't even need to have a broker account linked into it. I don't, I just look for a bit of interest, especially with what is happening in the world right now! You can only have 3 indicators on the chart at a time on the free version. But you don't want too many of those in any case as from what I can gather the best traders tend to trade on pure price action (at least those that aren't cheating with inside knowledge) and as such they have very basic clean charts (that way they are less likely to get analysis paralysis). You can play around with a demo account if you want on there but I haven't ever bothered.
You can add all manner of charts, so today I can see all of the following all just a click away:
The only thing really going up today seems to be Lockheed Martin so maybe somewhere in the world the war drums are getting ready to fire up again! :-(
The only indicators I have turned on are the 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages. I have them set as exponential moving averages instead of simple moving averages. There's a good article about those here: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122414/what-are-most-common-periods-use
Actually Deutsche Bank (DB) is up 5% currently today, and there was me saying it looked as good as toast yesterday on another thread, what do I know! :-) |
Deutsche Bank's silent partner will keep them afloat.
https://www.ft.com/content/e231dbe0-6124-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e |  | | |
| The price of oil..... on 16:07 - Apr 20 with 1688 views | midastouch |
That's behind a paywall for me I'm afraid. Any other similar links do you know about possibly? Sorry to be a pain but wouldn't mind looking into that. Always eager to learn. Cheers | |
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| The price of oil..... on 16:13 - Apr 20 with 1678 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Currently 10 dollars something...
Oil prices are lower in real terms than at any point since the 1970s, according to Erik Britton, managing director at Fathom Consulting. He also notes the bizarre US efforts to prop up oil prices (which may have more to do with the entanglement of US companies’ interests in the White House than concern for the economy):
"Despite the deal to cut oil production, brokered by President Trump, oil prices have continued to track downwards - the promise of reduced supply has not kept pace with the expected reduction in demand, so far.
It is one of life’s curiosities, for macroeconomists, that the US president would intervene to keep oil prices up, unless for environmental reasons, which feels unlikely with this administration. The US economy, like most advanced economies, is a substantial net beneficiary in the round from lower oil prices, even if the oil-producing sector is hurt." | |
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| The price of oil..... on 16:54 - Apr 20 with 1661 views | midastouch |
| The price of oil..... on 16:13 - Apr 20 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Currently 10 dollars something...
Oil prices are lower in real terms than at any point since the 1970s, according to Erik Britton, managing director at Fathom Consulting. He also notes the bizarre US efforts to prop up oil prices (which may have more to do with the entanglement of US companies’ interests in the White House than concern for the economy):
"Despite the deal to cut oil production, brokered by President Trump, oil prices have continued to track downwards - the promise of reduced supply has not kept pace with the expected reduction in demand, so far.
It is one of life’s curiosities, for macroeconomists, that the US president would intervene to keep oil prices up, unless for environmental reasons, which feels unlikely with this administration. The US economy, like most advanced economies, is a substantial net beneficiary in the round from lower oil prices, even if the oil-producing sector is hurt." |
Wow, look at it on the monthly chart now, it's at a key support line (from long ago - see where I've drawn the 2 prior circles), if it doesn't hold where the price is now then that's even more of a shocker.
 [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 16:55]
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| The price of oil..... on 17:04 - Apr 20 with 1646 views | BloomBlue |
| The price of oil..... on 16:56 - Apr 20 by midastouch |
Lost nearly 45% of its entire value now in just a single day! |
Although if it's only a single day couldn't it just as easily go up 50% tomorrow ie isn't the value over a longer period more important ? |  | | |
| The price of oil..... on 17:53 - Apr 20 with 1630 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The price of oil..... on 16:07 - Apr 20 by midastouch |
That's behind a paywall for me I'm afraid. Any other similar links do you know about possibly? Sorry to be a pain but wouldn't mind looking into that. Always eager to learn. Cheers |
Sorry about that, I had cheated by going via the Financial Times Coronavirus update which is free to view.
This is the first part of the article
Olaf Storbeck in Frankfurt APRIL 17 2019
Deutsche Bank has estimated that it processed at least €175m of dirty money for Russian criminals between 2011 and 2014 and has braced itself for potential fines, litigation and prosecution of individual managers in response.
The suspected money laundering was part of a $20bn scheme dubbed the “Russian Laundromat” that was exposed by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, a network of investigative journalists, in March 2017.Â
One year later, two senior Deutsche Bank anti-financial crime executives updated the lender’s supervisory board on an internal investigation into its role in the scandal, according to a “strictly confidential” presentation on April 24 last year that was first reported by The Guardian.
Deutsche Bank confirmed the authenticity of the presentation but declined to comment further. The internal assessment exposes another area of money-laundering failings at Germany’s largest lender, which is in talks about a merger with domestic rival Commerzbank.Â
The bank is already facing the scrutiny from US and German regulators for its role in the Danske Bank scandal, in which it processed up to €160bn of potentially suspicious transactions, many of them from Russia.Â
It is also the focus of a criminal investigation by Frankfurt prosecutors who suspect Deutsche supported clients’ money-laundering activities in offshore tax havens.
These activities were exposed by the Panama Papers, a trove of documents leaked in 2016, which late last year triggered a two-day raid by 170 police and criminal prosecutors searching Deutsche’s headquarters.Â
In January 2017, Deutsche agreed to pay $630m to settle US and UK investigations into alleged mirror trades used to launder $10bn out of Russia.Â
Of course Donald has a finger in the pie too.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90464228/the-journalist-who-revealed-the-secrets-of- | | | |
| The price of oil..... on 17:54 - Apr 20 with 1630 views | midastouch |
| The price of oil..... on 17:04 - Apr 20 by BloomBlue |
Although if it's only a single day couldn't it just as easily go up 50% tomorrow ie isn't the value over a longer period more important ? |
There is an argument for that, as the old infamous investment saying goes, buy when there's blood in the streets (when everybody else is scared), and sell when everybody else is being greedy. Today there is most certainly blood in the streets in the oil market! One is attributed to Baron Rothschild, and the other to Buffett.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012116/warren-buffett-be-fearful
There is an indicator you can put on a chart called an RSI indicator (RSI stands for relative strength index). The idea of that indicator is to give an indication of when something is overbought or oversold. If the RSI indicator is giving a reading of 80 or higher then the market could be overbought and it might be a time to tread carefully (as things could well revert to the mean). If the RSI indicator is on 20 or lower than it's the opposite, so it might be oversold and so then it could be a good buy opportunity. It's all about cycles, everything ebbs and flows. What a lot of traders do is buy something when it's in a clear uptrend, but only when it retraces back to a key short-term moving average such as the 8 day or 21 day moving average. So they wait patiently for the price to retrace to one of those levels and then go in again. As the trend is your friend, at least that is until the end! Trying however to predict a trend change, while being highly profitable if you can make the right call, is very risky. It's better to just go along with the trend as far as is possible and not try and get too clever. That's why it's a lot easier to make money during a bull market rather than a bear market. The ones that love a bear market are the likes of Soros and Buffett who are waiting patiently for a collapse as they know that's a great opportunity to take advantage of a quick wealth transfer from the weak hands (i.e. the poor mugs who brought 10 minutes to midnight just as the bubble was about to burst) to the strong hands (i.e. their hands)! [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 18:02]
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| The price of oil..... on 17:57 - Apr 20 with 1626 views | midastouch |
| The price of oil..... on 17:53 - Apr 20 by Eireannach_gorm |
Sorry about that, I had cheated by going via the Financial Times Coronavirus update which is free to view.
This is the first part of the article
Olaf Storbeck in Frankfurt APRIL 17 2019
Deutsche Bank has estimated that it processed at least €175m of dirty money for Russian criminals between 2011 and 2014 and has braced itself for potential fines, litigation and prosecution of individual managers in response.
The suspected money laundering was part of a $20bn scheme dubbed the “Russian Laundromat” that was exposed by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, a network of investigative journalists, in March 2017.Â
One year later, two senior Deutsche Bank anti-financial crime executives updated the lender’s supervisory board on an internal investigation into its role in the scandal, according to a “strictly confidential” presentation on April 24 last year that was first reported by The Guardian.
Deutsche Bank confirmed the authenticity of the presentation but declined to comment further. The internal assessment exposes another area of money-laundering failings at Germany’s largest lender, which is in talks about a merger with domestic rival Commerzbank.Â
The bank is already facing the scrutiny from US and German regulators for its role in the Danske Bank scandal, in which it processed up to €160bn of potentially suspicious transactions, many of them from Russia.Â
It is also the focus of a criminal investigation by Frankfurt prosecutors who suspect Deutsche supported clients’ money-laundering activities in offshore tax havens.
These activities were exposed by the Panama Papers, a trove of documents leaked in 2016, which late last year triggered a two-day raid by 170 police and criminal prosecutors searching Deutsche’s headquarters.Â
In January 2017, Deutsche agreed to pay $630m to settle US and UK investigations into alleged mirror trades used to launder $10bn out of Russia.Â
Of course Donald has a finger in the pie too.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90464228/the-journalist-who-revealed-the-secrets-of- |
Cheers for that. The good ol' Panama Papers. I enjoyed Bilton's Panorama episodes on those. Well I say I enjoyed, (it's actually sickening!) but he did a good job getting those out (exposed) for public consumption. But sadly it still goes on. A game of cat and mouse that the mega rich always seem to be at least a couple of moves ahead on. [Post edited 20 Apr 2020 18:18]
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