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First Goal - So Important 14:23 - Feb 28 with 576 viewsDennyx4

You hear a lot of commentators state that the first goal of a game is so important, and our results bear this out.

I did a quick bit of analysis on what our League results have been depending on whether we score the first goal or not.

We have scored the first goal in 15 of our League games this season so far, and have won 12, drawn 1 & lost 2 (The two defeats away to Doncaster & Peterborough). 80% win rate by scoring the first goal.

We have let in first in 11 league games, we have lost 8, drawn 1 and only won 2 (Plymouth Away & Shrewsbury Home) 18% win rate when we let in first. 72% lose rate when conceding the first goal.

Three games have ended 0-0.
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First Goal - So Important on 14:26 - Feb 28 with 541 viewsjayessess

In general, yes. In our case, it's probably magnified by us statistically being very good defensively and quite poor offensively.

I imagine the divisions high scorers aren't quite so hopeless after going one down.

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First Goal - So Important on 14:33 - Feb 28 with 519 viewsNthsuffolkblue

First Goal - So Important on 14:26 - Feb 28 by jayessess

In general, yes. In our case, it's probably magnified by us statistically being very good defensively and quite poor offensively.

I imagine the divisions high scorers aren't quite so hopeless after going one down.


Another stat to support the OP is Norwich have scored first 21 times this season. They have won 19 of those and drawn the other 2.

For us, the statistic is based around our matches not generally involving many goals. For them, this stat is based around coming strong towards the end of games anyway.

Clearly the first goal in any match is going to help a lot but the tactical abilities of a manager to adjust to going behind and manage out a game while ahead will help as well.

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First Goal - So Important on 14:33 - Feb 28 with 516 viewsDennyx4

First Goal - So Important on 14:26 - Feb 28 by jayessess

In general, yes. In our case, it's probably magnified by us statistically being very good defensively and quite poor offensively.

I imagine the divisions high scorers aren't quite so hopeless after going one down.


The poor offensively is the key part = only averaging just over a goal a game.
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First Goal - So Important on 18:43 - Feb 28 with 430 viewsTexacoCup

A statistic I heard a while ago is 70% of teams who score first, do not lose
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First Goal - So Important on 21:00 - Feb 28 with 378 viewsPhilTWTD

"We have let in first in 11 league games, we have lost 8, drawn 1 and only won 2 (Plymouth Away & Shrewsbury Home) 18% win rate when we let in first. 72% lose rate when conceding the first goal."

Bearing in mind the freakish nature of both the Plymouth and Shrewsbury wins, that's probably poorer than it looks.
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First Goal - So Important on 08:35 - Mar 1 with 313 viewsDennyx4

First Goal - So Important on 21:00 - Feb 28 by PhilTWTD

"We have let in first in 11 league games, we have lost 8, drawn 1 and only won 2 (Plymouth Away & Shrewsbury Home) 18% win rate when we let in first. 72% lose rate when conceding the first goal."

Bearing in mind the freakish nature of both the Plymouth and Shrewsbury wins, that's probably poorer than it looks.


Agree, the fact that we have only got one draw after letting the first goal in, is a big concern.
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