| A simple uppie/downie thread... 16:31 - Jan 5 with 9756 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Gaza, immediate ceasefire now? |  |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:37 - Jan 7 with 2649 views | J2BLUE |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:17 - Jan 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I haven’t demanded anything or denied complexity after a ceasefire but why is it so hard for some people to acknowledge that an immediate ceasefire is the only humanitarian choice.
You may need to expand on what you mean in your closing sentence, I am not sure it means that you do or do not agree that an immediate ceasefire is the best current option. |
If we had power and this was an actual vote I would abstain. If it was a conditional ceasefire with a proper plan I would support it. If Israel ignored it then I would hope we would start to put the pressure on them.
Israel are not going to leave their citizens in the hands of Hamas. No country would do that in similar circumstances but as it's Israel some people don't seem to care.
Of course an immediate ceasefire would be best for the people of Gaza but it's a bit like when the UN took days to make a statement against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's a pointless waste of time. It would be far better to come up with a plan for the immediate aftermath and the future to deal with some of the issues. Demanding a ceasefire and leaving 129 people in the hands of Hamas is not an option for most governments on the planet. Going by population, if it was the UK there would be 924 hostages. Can you imagine our government leaving them there knowing they will be kept forever as insurance? The second you withdraw they also start rearming with the support of a country who wants to wipe you off the map. What if your wife or daughter were one of the hostages who would be kept by Hamas probably forever? Is it still just a numbers game?
Would you agree with a conditional ceasefire where Hamas returned every single hostage in return for massive aid in Gaza and international peacekeepers in the West Bank? |  |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 13:49 - Jan 7 with 2596 views | NeedhamChris |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:01 - Jan 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Blimey Chris you seem desperate for my attention this morning! 
It would be nice if GB and several others in the broadly pro military solution camp might state their thoughts on an immediate ceasefire when they can be so outspoken elsewhere. Stating 'no' to the suggestion of an immediate ceasefire and stating why shouldn't be that difficult for those with such strong opinions. |
There's just no point engaging with such an oversimplified reality though. I wish the answer was Yes to a ceasefire, but Hamas would have to actually want one and stick to it.
I notice you didn't answer my hypothetical either |  |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 14:31 - Jan 7 with 2543 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:37 - Jan 7 by J2BLUE |
If we had power and this was an actual vote I would abstain. If it was a conditional ceasefire with a proper plan I would support it. If Israel ignored it then I would hope we would start to put the pressure on them.
Israel are not going to leave their citizens in the hands of Hamas. No country would do that in similar circumstances but as it's Israel some people don't seem to care.
Of course an immediate ceasefire would be best for the people of Gaza but it's a bit like when the UN took days to make a statement against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's a pointless waste of time. It would be far better to come up with a plan for the immediate aftermath and the future to deal with some of the issues. Demanding a ceasefire and leaving 129 people in the hands of Hamas is not an option for most governments on the planet. Going by population, if it was the UK there would be 924 hostages. Can you imagine our government leaving them there knowing they will be kept forever as insurance? The second you withdraw they also start rearming with the support of a country who wants to wipe you off the map. What if your wife or daughter were one of the hostages who would be kept by Hamas probably forever? Is it still just a numbers game?
Would you agree with a conditional ceasefire where Hamas returned every single hostage in return for massive aid in Gaza and international peacekeepers in the West Bank? |
Just quickly for now as time permits but who in their right mind wouldn't agree with your last paragraph but as you know Hamas are more likely to want prisoner exchanges even if that is only non hamas members. That is not to say I would agree with that stance.
As far as if it was my wife or daughter being held then absolutely yes I would still want an immediate ceasefire to give the space for a negotiated release with, as stated on the previous page, at least 2 but probably 4 weeks to see evidence of progress on that front. (I am not sure that assassinating the Hamas political wing deputy in Beirut who dealt with such negotiations will have helped!)
I hope you are not suggesting that you believe anybody on this forum doesn't care about Israeli hostages because they are Israeli as I have seen no evidence of that on here.
Finally, thanks for answering, this thread is absolutely not looking for a gotcha moment but simply concerned about the here and now and how some of those who fully (or even cautiously) backed a military response feel where we are now. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 14:35 - Jan 7 with 2539 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 13:49 - Jan 7 by NeedhamChris |
There's just no point engaging with such an oversimplified reality though. I wish the answer was Yes to a ceasefire, but Hamas would have to actually want one and stick to it.
I notice you didn't answer my hypothetical either |
Do you mean your hypothetical where Hamas invade Israel the day after a ceasefire? I mean, come on!!!
Off course both sides would have to agree to a ceasefire. Who do you think might currently want to resist one the most? | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 14:42 - Jan 7 with 2521 views | NeedhamChris |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 14:35 - Jan 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Do you mean your hypothetical where Hamas invade Israel the day after a ceasefire? I mean, come on!!!
Off course both sides would have to agree to a ceasefire. Who do you think might currently want to resist one the most? |
So do you agree there are circumstances where the IDF would be justified in military action? | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 15:30 - Jan 7 with 2450 views | StokieBlue |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:37 - Jan 7 by J2BLUE |
If we had power and this was an actual vote I would abstain. If it was a conditional ceasefire with a proper plan I would support it. If Israel ignored it then I would hope we would start to put the pressure on them.
Israel are not going to leave their citizens in the hands of Hamas. No country would do that in similar circumstances but as it's Israel some people don't seem to care.
Of course an immediate ceasefire would be best for the people of Gaza but it's a bit like when the UN took days to make a statement against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's a pointless waste of time. It would be far better to come up with a plan for the immediate aftermath and the future to deal with some of the issues. Demanding a ceasefire and leaving 129 people in the hands of Hamas is not an option for most governments on the planet. Going by population, if it was the UK there would be 924 hostages. Can you imagine our government leaving them there knowing they will be kept forever as insurance? The second you withdraw they also start rearming with the support of a country who wants to wipe you off the map. What if your wife or daughter were one of the hostages who would be kept by Hamas probably forever? Is it still just a numbers game?
Would you agree with a conditional ceasefire where Hamas returned every single hostage in return for massive aid in Gaza and international peacekeepers in the West Bank? |
A a small aside, we are pretty much past the stage where "massive aid" is going to be enough. The UN have essentially declared Gaza uninhabitable [1], it essentially needs rebuilding from the ground up.
"The three-month conflict has displaced some 85% of Gaza’s population and the UN has identified more than 37,000 structures destroyed or damaged in the war so far."
SB
[1]. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/05/un-warns-gaza-is-now-uninhabitable |  | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 15:50 - Jan 7 with 2422 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 14:42 - Jan 7 by NeedhamChris |
So do you agree there are circumstances where the IDF would be justified in military action? |
You keep not answering questions by asking new ones, perhaps rewind a little. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 16:17 - Jan 7 with 2373 views | NeedhamChris |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 15:50 - Jan 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
You keep not answering questions by asking new ones, perhaps rewind a little. |
I've answered - as it stands in the current situation I'd say no until conditions are met.
In answer to your question about who wants a ceasefire least, depends on how simplistic you want to be.
A ceasefire with absolutely no conditions, Hamas would love that and the IDF clearly wouldn't.
However if you said a ceasefire with all hostages released, IDF become more keen but Hamas lose all their current leverage (the little they have left? | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 16:18 - Jan 7 with 2370 views | NeedhamChris |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 16:17 - Jan 7 by NeedhamChris |
I've answered - as it stands in the current situation I'd say no until conditions are met.
In answer to your question about who wants a ceasefire least, depends on how simplistic you want to be.
A ceasefire with absolutely no conditions, Hamas would love that and the IDF clearly wouldn't.
However if you said a ceasefire with all hostages released, IDF become more keen but Hamas lose all their current leverage (the little they have left? |
So, it's your turn.
So do you agree there are circumstances where the IDF would be justified in military action?
Yes/no - as you're such a fan of those. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 17:38 - Jan 7 with 2289 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 16:18 - Jan 7 by NeedhamChris |
So, it's your turn.
So do you agree there are circumstances where the IDF would be justified in military action?
Yes/no - as you're such a fan of those. |
Yes | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 19:20 - Jan 7 with 2234 views | ford6600 |
Ceasefire now? l voted no. Currently it would just suit Hamas. Under pressure from IDF a cease fire would enable them to say they weren't beaten and under 'wooly' UN rebuilding and syphoning of funds they would rebuild their infrastructure, and this will all happen again perhaps with the use of long range missiles in a few years time. Hamas had c30,000 militants and recently IDF said approx 8,000 killed, that leaves over 20,000 at large in Gaza.
A conditional surrender by Hamas could be proposed by Israel. If they release all hostages, all remaining tunnels and associated infrastructure is destroyed by IDF, all Hamas missiles/weapons confiscated by IDF, Hamas government disbanded, Palestinian Authority governs Gaza and West Bank. Hamas operatives involved in initial massacre proscecuted. UN rebuild a civilian run Gaza with the aim of a two state solution or more
idealistic joint Israel-Palestine state with no internal borders and integrated Police and Army. You asked for a simple yes or no their isn't such a thing for this problem. imo. | | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 19:26 - Jan 7 with 2213 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 19:20 - Jan 7 by ford6600 |
Ceasefire now? l voted no. Currently it would just suit Hamas. Under pressure from IDF a cease fire would enable them to say they weren't beaten and under 'wooly' UN rebuilding and syphoning of funds they would rebuild their infrastructure, and this will all happen again perhaps with the use of long range missiles in a few years time. Hamas had c30,000 militants and recently IDF said approx 8,000 killed, that leaves over 20,000 at large in Gaza.
A conditional surrender by Hamas could be proposed by Israel. If they release all hostages, all remaining tunnels and associated infrastructure is destroyed by IDF, all Hamas missiles/weapons confiscated by IDF, Hamas government disbanded, Palestinian Authority governs Gaza and West Bank. Hamas operatives involved in initial massacre proscecuted. UN rebuild a civilian run Gaza with the aim of a two state solution or more
idealistic joint Israel-Palestine state with no internal borders and integrated Police and Army. You asked for a simple yes or no their isn't such a thing for this problem. imo. |
I asked for simple yes or no where we are now and you provided an answer. Thanks for now expanding on your rationale. Appreciate it.
Edit...just to add that in light of the 85% destruction of infrastructure(Stokie provided a link somewhere) I'm not sure there is anywhere for the Gazan Palestinians to live while a rebuild is carried out. [Post edited 7 Jan 2024 19:29]
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 20:59 - Jan 7 with 2090 views | ford6600 |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 19:26 - Jan 7 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I asked for simple yes or no where we are now and you provided an answer. Thanks for now expanding on your rationale. Appreciate it.
Edit...just to add that in light of the 85% destruction of infrastructure(Stokie provided a link somewhere) I'm not sure there is anywhere for the Gazan Palestinians to live while a rebuild is carried out. [Post edited 7 Jan 2024 19:29]
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Personally l would take UN figures and Guardian write up as hyperbole. Just as Hamas 'ministry of health!' figures are doubtful in the extreme as meant for Western media consumption and combatants aren't mentioned! Satelite imagery mid-December indicated
damage to 18% of buildings this includes 9% moderately damaged. When hostilities end the urgent need is for water, electricity, sewage systems to be restored. With Spring approaching large tented camps will no doubt be set up along the coast, with resupply easier from the sea. Many existing buildings where possible will have temporary repairs to make them habitable. Not a nice situation for anyone, no winners in this situation. | | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:06 - Jan 7 with 2071 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 20:59 - Jan 7 by ford6600 |
Personally l would take UN figures and Guardian write up as hyperbole. Just as Hamas 'ministry of health!' figures are doubtful in the extreme as meant for Western media consumption and combatants aren't mentioned! Satelite imagery mid-December indicated
damage to 18% of buildings this includes 9% moderately damaged. When hostilities end the urgent need is for water, electricity, sewage systems to be restored. With Spring approaching large tented camps will no doubt be set up along the coast, with resupply easier from the sea. Many existing buildings where possible will have temporary repairs to make them habitable. Not a nice situation for anyone, no winners in this situation. |
I believe that the UN and multiple other agencies accept the Hamas health ministry figures as accurate. Are you suggesting that they are in cahoots? Where is your 18% figure from out of interest.
Western media being the domain of a leftist agenda is seriously lolworthy but a lovely angle by which the Right makes itself feel like counter culture btw...top marks for buying into it. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 22:32 - Jan 7 with 2011 views | StokieBlue |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 20:59 - Jan 7 by ford6600 |
Personally l would take UN figures and Guardian write up as hyperbole. Just as Hamas 'ministry of health!' figures are doubtful in the extreme as meant for Western media consumption and combatants aren't mentioned! Satelite imagery mid-December indicated
damage to 18% of buildings this includes 9% moderately damaged. When hostilities end the urgent need is for water, electricity, sewage systems to be restored. With Spring approaching large tented camps will no doubt be set up along the coast, with resupply easier from the sea. Many existing buildings where possible will have temporary repairs to make them habitable. Not a nice situation for anyone, no winners in this situation. |
"Personally l would take UN figures and Guardian write up as hyperbole. Just as Hamas 'ministry of health!' figures are doubtful in the extreme as meant for Western media consumption and combatants aren't mentioned!"
The number of deaths has independently verified as being reasonably accurate by the UN, MSF and other organisations. The Biden administration has stated that they think the figures given are actually a lower end estimate [1].
"Satelite imagery mid-December indicated damage to 18% of buildings this includes 9% moderately damaged."
This is incorrect. The article you are citing was based on data up to the 26th November and things have moved on considerably as has the intensity of the attacks [2]. It stated:
"As of 26 November 2023, UNOSAT has identified 10,049 destroyed structures, 8,243 severely damaged structures, and 19,087 moderately damaged structures, totaling 37,379 structures affected."
Here is an article from the 22nd December showing an analysis highlighting 60% of the infrastructure in north Gaza was already destroyed by that point:
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/MAPS/movajdladpa/#bombardme
You can also find independent university studies showing similar analysis. It's worth noting that things have got worse since then.
Why would you doubt the UN figures? They would have no reason to inflate the figures.
"With Spring approaching large tented camps will no doubt be set up along the coast, with resupply easier from the sea. Many existing buildings where possible will have temporary repairs to make them habitable."
This is a ridiculously optimistic scenario. You've totally dismissed what the UN have said and constructed your own narrative. Most buildings will have had foundations undermined by bombs, you can't just make temporary repairs to them and hope for the best. At least 85% of the population is displaced, to think that can be quickly sorted out is incredibly naïve.
SB
[1]. I had more links supporting this and the university studies but they seem to have been removed when another poster got banned for continually trying to misrepresent the number of deaths and the level of destruction.
[2]. https://www.unitar.org/about/news-stories/press/unosat-satellite-imagery-based-a | | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 19:59 - Jan 8 with 1848 views | Vic |
My heart says yes, but my head says no. In reality this is just too binary a question to a very complex situation. Others, esp J2 have helpfully set out why a simple ceasefire is not as easy, or wise as it may sound. I think the ceasing of all war crimes on both sides is crucial as part of any ceasefire - which would mean return of hostages- something Hamas are currently unwilling to do. |  |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:02 - Jan 9 with 1681 views | DJR |
And how about this to change minds?
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:04 - Jan 9 with 1672 views | StokieBlue |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:02 - Jan 9 by DJR |
And how about this to change minds?
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Unfortunately though there are some who simply refuse to either believe it or acknowledge it (see the poster I replied to earlier).
His response was it was hyperbole for the Western audience and that the source was unreliable.
Hard to know how to tackle that really apart from continuing to present evidence.
SB | | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:22 - Jan 9 with 1645 views | DJR |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:04 - Jan 9 by StokieBlue |
Unfortunately though there are some who simply refuse to either believe it or acknowledge it (see the poster I replied to earlier).
His response was it was hyperbole for the Western audience and that the source was unreliable.
Hard to know how to tackle that really apart from continuing to present evidence.
SB |
Yes, very strange, given that it is aid agencies that are providing the evidence and calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. Very difficult to regard them as biased, and if it were Ukraine they were talking about, people wouldn't be doubting them.
Perhaps the even more disturbing thing is that Western countries are not even calling for a humanitarian pause anymore.
And when it comes to further evidence of the dire straits, how about this from the UNOCHA?
A total of 59 out of 77 primary health centres are not functioning, leaving many without access to basic health services.
Only 120 out of 353 formal and informal IDP shelters have access to medical points.
About 350,000 people with chronic illnesses and about 485,000 people with mental health disorders continue to experience disruptions in their treatments.
1.9 million IDPs remain at high risk of communicable disease due to poor living conditions, notably overcrowding of shelters and lack of access to proper water sanitation and hygiene facilities. [Post edited 9 Jan 2024 21:23]
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:42 - Jan 9 with 1595 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:22 - Jan 9 by DJR |
Yes, very strange, given that it is aid agencies that are providing the evidence and calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. Very difficult to regard them as biased, and if it were Ukraine they were talking about, people wouldn't be doubting them.
Perhaps the even more disturbing thing is that Western countries are not even calling for a humanitarian pause anymore.
And when it comes to further evidence of the dire straits, how about this from the UNOCHA?
A total of 59 out of 77 primary health centres are not functioning, leaving many without access to basic health services.
Only 120 out of 353 formal and informal IDP shelters have access to medical points.
About 350,000 people with chronic illnesses and about 485,000 people with mental health disorders continue to experience disruptions in their treatments.
1.9 million IDPs remain at high risk of communicable disease due to poor living conditions, notably overcrowding of shelters and lack of access to proper water sanitation and hygiene facilities. [Post edited 9 Jan 2024 21:23]
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It's appalling isn't it.
It s also a real shame that some of those forum members most supportive initially of the Israeli military response have found it so difficult to state if they continue to back it or have now changed their minds and acknowledgethat an immediate ceasefire is required. They are usually more than happy to hit the uppie/downie arrows. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 11:18 - Jan 10 with 1478 views | J2BLUE |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 21:42 - Jan 9 by BanksterDebtSlave |
It's appalling isn't it.
It s also a real shame that some of those forum members most supportive initially of the Israeli military response have found it so difficult to state if they continue to back it or have now changed their minds and acknowledgethat an immediate ceasefire is required. They are usually more than happy to hit the uppie/downie arrows. |
It's such a stupid question. You're basically asking us if we support war or peace in your idealistic world. Obviously peace would be great.
Back in the real world there is plenty of context to consider which you refuse to do so you can score points on the internet.
I will say it again. The international community should be brokering a deal which includes the release of every Israeli hostage rather than demanding a ceasefire which is never going to happen. You might be happy to have Israel withdraw and let Hamas keep the hostages while they re-arm but Israel is not going to agree.
I would support a humanitarian pause. I would support a conditional ceasefire. I will not support your sixth form idealism. Not many people want war. The international community should be looking for a way to end it. Your pointless 'war is bad right?' question solves absolutely nothing. | |
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| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:43 - Jan 10 with 1423 views | phillymark |
I have a set of questions which I think are reasonable
What happens after a ceasefire?
Do the hostages get returned?
Does Hamas get to rebuild tunnels?
Does Hamas get to launch missiles into Israel without Israel being allowed to retailiate?
If Hamas does another October 7, does Israel get to retaliate? | | | |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:48 - Jan 10 with 1413 views | StokieBlue |
| A simple uppie/downie thread... on 12:43 - Jan 10 by phillymark |
I have a set of questions which I think are reasonable
What happens after a ceasefire?
Do the hostages get returned?
Does Hamas get to rebuild tunnels?
Does Hamas get to launch missiles into Israel without Israel being allowed to retailiate?
If Hamas does another October 7, does Israel get to retaliate? |
All those questions are one-sided and most have pretty obvious answers so not really sure what you are trying to achieve.
How about this question:
Is it right for the IDF to continue the wholesale destruction of Gaza? Should they stop their assault that has displaced >85% of the population, destroyed >50,000 buildings and currently has 500k starving and then work on getting the hostages back?
Many seem to be able to frame this entirely on what might happen to Israel at some unknown future date whilst ignoring what is happening to Gaza and it's civilians right now.
SB [Post edited 10 Jan 2024 13:09]
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