| Calculator result - "par for the course" 20:21 - Mar 4 with 2805 views | Trequartista |
This shows where the top 4 will end up all things being equal. This is showing that Leicester and Leeds have slightly easier run-ins than us. I might update it after each game.
Formulas:
Top 4 v Top 4 = 1-0
Top 4 v Playoff team = 2-0
Top 4 v Lower than playoff team = 3-0
Playoff team v Top 4 = 1-1
Lower than playoff team v Top 4 = 0-1
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | GD |
| Leicester City | 46 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 20 | 107 | 55 |
| Leeds United | 46 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 53 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 17 | 104 | 56 |
| Ipswich Town | 46 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 60 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 102 | 43 |
| Southampton | 46 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 94 | 39 |
20th January 2026 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Bristol City |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
| Sunderland | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
1st November 2025 | | Southampton | 2 | 0 | Preston North End |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
21st October 2025 | | Hull City | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
14th February 2026 | | Leicester City | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
20th December 2025 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Sheffield Wednesday |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Millwall |
20th September 2025 | | Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
10th December 2025 | | Bristol City | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
27th September 2025 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Watford | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
17th August 2025 | | Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Hull City |
28th February 2026 | | Leicester City | 2 | 0 | Norwich City |
25th October 2025 | | Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Leeds United |
30th August 2025 | | Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City |
11th April 2026 | | Norwich City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
4th March 2026 | | Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
25th October 2025 | | Millwall | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
20th December 2025 | | Southampton | 2 | 0 | Coventry City |
4th November 2025 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Watford |
18th April 2026 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
| Plymouth Argyle | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
7th February 2026 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
29th December 2025 | | Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
4th January 2026 | | Leicester City | 2 | 0 | West Bromwich Albion |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
25th November 2025 | | Hull City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
16th August 2025 | | Preston North End | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
23rd August 2025 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Huddersfield Town |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
1st November 2025 | | Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 with 2609 views | WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |  | | |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:33 - Mar 4 with 2592 views | Trequartista |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 by WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |
I agree, I don't think three teams will get 100+ points, but that's not really the point, i'm saying what the top three will be if all perform to par. I could tweak the formulas so they all get less points, but the outcome will be much the same. [Post edited 4 Mar 2024 21:34]
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:10 - Mar 17 with 1989 views | Trequartista |
Still need a couple of slip ups from those above
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | GD |
| Leicester City | 46 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 21 | 107 | 55 |
| Leeds United | 46 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 50 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 17 | 104 | 54 |
| Ipswich Town | 45 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 63 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 98 | 42 |
| Southampton | 46 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 94 | 39 |
20th September 2025 | | Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
10th December 2025 | | Bristol City | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
27th September 2025 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Watford | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
17th August 2025 | | Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Hull City |
28th February 2026 | | Leicester City | 2 | 0 | Norwich City |
25th October 2025 | | Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Leeds United |
30th August 2025 | | Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City |
11th April 2026 | | Norwich City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
4th March 2026 | | Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
25th October 2025 | | Millwall | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
20th December 2025 | | Southampton | 2 | 0 | Coventry City |
4th November 2025 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Plymouth Argyle | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
18th April 2026 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
7th February 2026 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Watford |
1st November 2025 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Preston North End |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
4th January 2026 | | Leicester City | 2 | 0 | West Bromwich Albion |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
14th February 2026 | | Leicester City | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
25th November 2025 | | Hull City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
16th August 2025 | | Preston North End | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
23rd August 2025 | | Southampton | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Huddersfield Town |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
1st November 2025 | | Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
That should say 99 points for Ipswich, the Coventry v Ipswich fixture has been removed from the calculator. [Post edited 17 Mar 2024 21:12]
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:40 - Mar 17 with 1861 views | jayessess |
Our last 8 is four pretty winnable games (Blackburn A, Watford H, Boro H, Huddersfield H) and very tough looking ones (Cov A, The Abomination A, Hull A, Soton H). Win the four we should win, win two of the others and I'll feel like we've more than done our bit and what will be will be. |  |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 23:01 - Mar 17 with 1662 views | Trequartista |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:40 - Mar 17 by jayessess |
Our last 8 is four pretty winnable games (Blackburn A, Watford H, Boro H, Huddersfield H) and very tough looking ones (Cov A, The Abomination A, Hull A, Soton H). Win the four we should win, win two of the others and I'll feel like we've more than done our bit and what will be will be. |
I agree that 6 wins (99 points) would leave us incredibly unlucky not to make to the top 2. We can also be heartened by the experience we had of winning at Barnsley, Bolton, Derby etc away last season when needed, albeit obviously at a lower level.
My table is just a sort of rough guide to how many slipups and conversely how many fantastic results each team needs to veer from the "par for the course" finish. | |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 03:31 - Mar 18 with 1526 views | Westcountryblue |
You'd hope we could win our remaining 4 home games. In addition to that, a win and a draw in our remaining 3 away games would take us to 97 points. Surely enough !
For me, Leed's have been outstanding and carry such a threat going forward, like ourselves. They however are far more reliable at the back.
Leicester are slightly different. Maresca's system doesn't have the ability to blow teams away and i think they may struggle against teams using a low block and scraping for their lives. 1.55 points on average per game since Jan. We just need to keep bettering that ! | | | |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 08:23 - Mar 18 with 1283 views | StokieBlue |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:33 - Mar 4 by Trequartista |
I agree, I don't think three teams will get 100+ points, but that's not really the point, i'm saying what the top three will be if all perform to par. I could tweak the formulas so they all get less points, but the outcome will be much the same. [Post edited 4 Mar 2024 21:34]
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Your extrapolation shows none of the 3 teams losing any of a combined 27 matches - that would be highly unlikely I would think.
Over the season thus far they have lost a combined 18 matches from 113 played so ~16%. To go from 16% to 0% would be an incredible performance from all 3 teams.
SB [Post edited 18 Mar 2024 11:15]
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 09:45 - Mar 18 with 1117 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 by WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |
Sunderland have been pretty bad of late. Even with Beale gone not seeing much improvement. I don't see them taking points off Leics.
I really think it's 100 points plus. I hope I'm wrong and Leics stumble under pressure. Don't see Leeds dropping much at all |  |
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