| Bounce back after relegation... 15:49 - Jan 22 with 4481 views | SaffronWaldenBlues |
It's interesting to see that of the three teams that came down, Luton looks set for the double drop and they performed similarly to ourselves at this stage in the season last year. Burnley are in 4th and Sheffield United look to be a "Norwich" in terms of being able to bounce back after having such a bad season in the top flight.
I don't think that should we drop that our "bound back" will be as easy, or straightforward as some are thinking. I don't view this season as a free hit, I think staying up is an absolute must and not impossible. |  |
| An East Anglian Town overtaken by Londoners |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 15:55 - Jan 22 with 4369 views | _clive_baker_ |
2/3 straight back last season (Leeds in 4th and missing out in PO Final).
All 3 promoted sides back down.
2/3 potentially this season, Burnley and Sheff United both going well.
Minimum 2, potentially all 3 promoted sides back down.
I think next season in the Championship all 3 relegated sides will be strong. Luton never felt particularly sticky or sustainable to be. I think we would be given our recruitment, and Leicester and Saints almost certainly would be as they were last time. Wolves would too. They all just feel like bigger clubs at that level, spent about 80% of the past decade in the premier league, horrible places to go to, a bit of fear factor to them. I'll predict all 3 relegated clubs this season will finish in the top 6 of the Champs next. |  | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 15:58 - Jan 22 with 4315 views | hype313 |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 15:55 - Jan 22 by _clive_baker_ |
2/3 straight back last season (Leeds in 4th and missing out in PO Final).
All 3 promoted sides back down.
2/3 potentially this season, Burnley and Sheff United both going well.
Minimum 2, potentially all 3 promoted sides back down.
I think next season in the Championship all 3 relegated sides will be strong. Luton never felt particularly sticky or sustainable to be. I think we would be given our recruitment, and Leicester and Saints almost certainly would be as they were last time. Wolves would too. They all just feel like bigger clubs at that level, spent about 80% of the past decade in the premier league, horrible places to go to, a bit of fear factor to them. I'll predict all 3 relegated clubs this season will finish in the top 6 of the Champs next. |
Think the EFL will be waiting in the wings for Leicester...
Agree on Luton, did feel like it was a fluke and built on sand. |  |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:10 - Jan 22 with 4113 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 15:55 - Jan 22 by _clive_baker_ |
2/3 straight back last season (Leeds in 4th and missing out in PO Final).
All 3 promoted sides back down.
2/3 potentially this season, Burnley and Sheff United both going well.
Minimum 2, potentially all 3 promoted sides back down.
I think next season in the Championship all 3 relegated sides will be strong. Luton never felt particularly sticky or sustainable to be. I think we would be given our recruitment, and Leicester and Saints almost certainly would be as they were last time. Wolves would too. They all just feel like bigger clubs at that level, spent about 80% of the past decade in the premier league, horrible places to go to, a bit of fear factor to them. I'll predict all 3 relegated clubs this season will finish in the top 6 of the Champs next. |
Luton didnt invest to anywhere near the extent that we have.
They lost their best player Barkely on a free (or low fee), and I'm not sure if Tom Locklyear returned to playing? |  |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:19 - Jan 22 with 4008 views | bluefunk |
There’s few parallels between us and Luton. They spent little and only managed to compete because their Ross Barkley loan worked so well. We’ve purchased players who would have been among the best in last seasons Championship, most of whom will remain here even if we go down, with the cream being sold to balance the books (Delap, Davis, maybe O’Shea) our biggest risk is a change of manager. |  | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:41 - Jan 22 with 3788 views | SaffronWaldenBlues |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:19 - Jan 22 by bluefunk |
There’s few parallels between us and Luton. They spent little and only managed to compete because their Ross Barkley loan worked so well. We’ve purchased players who would have been among the best in last seasons Championship, most of whom will remain here even if we go down, with the cream being sold to balance the books (Delap, Davis, maybe O’Shea) our biggest risk is a change of manager. |
Do we think he will stay if we drop though? I am not saying McKenna is desperate to leave but he's going to be sought after in the summer either way. If Kompany can get Bayern, and Maresca Chelsea, McKenna will definitely be sought after, even without having a City connection. It's getting to a point where even his beloved United may take a gamble on him or even Spurs. We could offer a bigger contract but if there's a choice between staying at a club that is potentially a yoyo outfit or going to an established Premier League side with a wealth of riches then I can't see us holding onto him. | |
| An East Anglian Town overtaken by Londoners |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:44 - Jan 22 with 3750 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:10 - Jan 22 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Luton didnt invest to anywhere near the extent that we have.
They lost their best player Barkely on a free (or low fee), and I'm not sure if Tom Locklyear returned to playing? |
Yeah, that's why I don't think they're as comparable or ever felt as sticky. They also rely on a smaller crowd and lower revenues. We would be going down with the basis of a squad that's demonstrably proven to be strong individually at that level, right across the side. We'll no doubt have to lose 2 or 3 but when you consider Davis, Burns, Chaplin, Morsy, Axel, Hutchinson, Broadhead, Burgess, Woofly, Hirst etc were all key parts of our promotion campaign and 70%+ are likely to remain. Add in Greaves, O'Shea, Philogene, Jack Clarke, Delap, Szmodics to that mix who in most cases are proven to be top players at that level. 16 names there, even if 10-12 are still here that's the basis of an outfield squad that should be competing for the playoffs as a minimum.
Biggest variable in the event we're relegated is who will be managing us. As we know that's a big one to get right and could go 1 of 2 ways. Hopefully still McKenna. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:03 - Jan 22 with 3596 views | Smoresy |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:10 - Jan 22 by Marshalls_Mullet |
Luton didnt invest to anywhere near the extent that we have.
They lost their best player Barkely on a free (or low fee), and I'm not sure if Tom Locklyear returned to playing? |
They spent the least in recent PL promotion history, no less. I don't know how far you'd need to travel back to find comparable spending on transfer fees (below £25m).
Similarity's there in that we were both promoted with EFL squads, but even then ours was more expensively assembled and much more successful in the Championship.
Lockyer hasn't played since his cardiac arrest last season, though it's an ankle problem now keeping him out. |  | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:08 - Jan 22 with 3575 views | greyhound |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:41 - Jan 22 by SaffronWaldenBlues |
Do we think he will stay if we drop though? I am not saying McKenna is desperate to leave but he's going to be sought after in the summer either way. If Kompany can get Bayern, and Maresca Chelsea, McKenna will definitely be sought after, even without having a City connection. It's getting to a point where even his beloved United may take a gamble on him or even Spurs. We could offer a bigger contract but if there's a choice between staying at a club that is potentially a yoyo outfit or going to an established Premier League side with a wealth of riches then I can't see us holding onto him. |
Ive already made peace with the fact this season is mckennas last. I hate it, but the guy will go down in history for us. Got to be happy to send him on to what's next | | | |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:11 - Jan 22 with 3531 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 16:41 - Jan 22 by SaffronWaldenBlues |
Do we think he will stay if we drop though? I am not saying McKenna is desperate to leave but he's going to be sought after in the summer either way. If Kompany can get Bayern, and Maresca Chelsea, McKenna will definitely be sought after, even without having a City connection. It's getting to a point where even his beloved United may take a gamble on him or even Spurs. We could offer a bigger contract but if there's a choice between staying at a club that is potentially a yoyo outfit or going to an established Premier League side with a wealth of riches then I can't see us holding onto him. |
If we were relegated, theres no way we could offer a bigger contract.
This season is his last I think. | |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:12 - Jan 22 with 3523 views | TheBoyBlue |
I don't think anyone really thinks it'll be easy (apart from the odd one or two). However, we will in a strong position should we go down. We will no longer be on the outside looking enviously at those with parachute payments for a start. Plus we will be a far more attractive option to the players we would need than when we went up into the Championship.
Of course nothing is guaranteed, but I'm also confident that Gamechanger will take the right approach to it. | |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:59 - Jan 22 with 3267 views | BloomBlue |
Luton do look like they're in trouble, although as others have mentioned they didn't spend a huge amount of money on new players last season after promotion, whereas Town have spent a large amount of money
Although..
While it is hard to compare precisely 1 to 1, as stated on Talksport, after 22 games last season Luton had 19 points and a -11 GD.
Town after 22 games have 16 points and -23 GD.
Both very similar at this stage, ultimately will the spending by Town beat the limited spending by Luton |  | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 18:07 - Jan 22 with 3228 views | baxterbasics |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:08 - Jan 22 by greyhound |
Ive already made peace with the fact this season is mckennas last. I hate it, but the guy will go down in history for us. Got to be happy to send him on to what's next |
The only possible hope is that any club looking to hire him gets put off by the costs. |  |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 18:47 - Jan 22 with 3118 views | CBMTOBWMMBG |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:12 - Jan 22 by TheBoyBlue |
I don't think anyone really thinks it'll be easy (apart from the odd one or two). However, we will in a strong position should we go down. We will no longer be on the outside looking enviously at those with parachute payments for a start. Plus we will be a far more attractive option to the players we would need than when we went up into the Championship.
Of course nothing is guaranteed, but I'm also confident that Gamechanger will take the right approach to it. |
No-one seems to mention the finances of going down.
Your best players want to leave and go back to the PL, but unless they are really wanted you have limited power in negotiations. So, apart from the obvious exception of Delap, we may not get back what we paid.
And some players will have clauses limiting what we can sell for. I would bet Davis' new contract has something of that type in it if we are relegated.
Plus the salary bill will be enormous. Even if they have reductions built in for relegation.
And all those fees which are paid back year after year, rather than in lump sums this year. to pay for.
Even with parachute payments it could be very tricky. [Post edited 22 Jan 18:49]
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:02 - Jan 22 with 2844 views | TheBoyBlue |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 18:47 - Jan 22 by CBMTOBWMMBG |
No-one seems to mention the finances of going down.
Your best players want to leave and go back to the PL, but unless they are really wanted you have limited power in negotiations. So, apart from the obvious exception of Delap, we may not get back what we paid.
And some players will have clauses limiting what we can sell for. I would bet Davis' new contract has something of that type in it if we are relegated.
Plus the salary bill will be enormous. Even if they have reductions built in for relegation.
And all those fees which are paid back year after year, rather than in lump sums this year. to pay for.
Even with parachute payments it could be very tricky. [Post edited 22 Jan 18:49]
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I'd be confident that Gamechanger has thought about all of this.
My point is that we wouldn't be going into it as the relative pauper outsiders this time. And we did OK even when we were in that position two years ago! | |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:07 - Jan 22 with 2812 views | mk_blue |
Also, behind the scenes, club infrastructure at ITFC is far ahead of Luton & think that's where they have struggled, much more difficult to bounce back once you've lost the core of what got you up in the first place. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:43 - Jan 22 with 2606 views | bournemouthblue |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 18:47 - Jan 22 by CBMTOBWMMBG |
No-one seems to mention the finances of going down.
Your best players want to leave and go back to the PL, but unless they are really wanted you have limited power in negotiations. So, apart from the obvious exception of Delap, we may not get back what we paid.
And some players will have clauses limiting what we can sell for. I would bet Davis' new contract has something of that type in it if we are relegated.
Plus the salary bill will be enormous. Even if they have reductions built in for relegation.
And all those fees which are paid back year after year, rather than in lump sums this year. to pay for.
Even with parachute payments it could be very tricky. [Post edited 22 Jan 18:49]
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A sale of Delap pretty much mitigates most of the PSR problems you would expect
We'd have one of the strongest squads in the league, central midfield would need addressing but we would have most other bases covered? |  |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:52 - Jan 22 with 2513 views | HighgateBlue |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 17:59 - Jan 22 by BloomBlue |
Luton do look like they're in trouble, although as others have mentioned they didn't spend a huge amount of money on new players last season after promotion, whereas Town have spent a large amount of money
Although..
While it is hard to compare precisely 1 to 1, as stated on Talksport, after 22 games last season Luton had 19 points and a -11 GD.
Town after 22 games have 16 points and -23 GD.
Both very similar at this stage, ultimately will the spending by Town beat the limited spending by Luton |
I think most of us would agree with the following:
i) we had at least as good a side when promoted as Luton did
ii) we had at least as good a manager when promoted as Luton did
iii) they spent a lot less and brought in far fewer players.
And yet at the same stage, they had 18% more points and a far better goal difference.
It makes you wonder, just as a hypothetical, how many points we would now have if we had changed very little about our promotion-winning side. If Luton had 19 points, why would we not have at least 16 points if we'd spent very little? Especially given our wonderful coach? We've won 3 games out of 22. Would it really have been worse if we'd brought in only a small handful of players to supplement our wonderful squad with such team spirit, passion and togetherness?
If we do go down, hopefully we bounce straight back up and nobody has to conduct any post mortems... |  | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:54 - Jan 22 with 2498 views | ParisBlue |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:07 - Jan 22 by mk_blue |
Also, behind the scenes, club infrastructure at ITFC is far ahead of Luton & think that's where they have struggled, much more difficult to bounce back once you've lost the core of what got you up in the first place. |
I'd be reasonably confident of bouncing back first time, the parachute money is a huge advantage and we're a stable club with stable ownership, albeit I'd expect quite a turnaround of players and likely a new manager sadly.
The problem would be if we went down a second time. Another turnaround of players and the squad likely to be a bit of a mess.
Still, whatever it beats finishing 15th in the Championship every year. |  |
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| Bounce back after relegation... on 22:29 - Jan 22 with 2157 views | Smoresy |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 20:52 - Jan 22 by HighgateBlue |
I think most of us would agree with the following:
i) we had at least as good a side when promoted as Luton did
ii) we had at least as good a manager when promoted as Luton did
iii) they spent a lot less and brought in far fewer players.
And yet at the same stage, they had 18% more points and a far better goal difference.
It makes you wonder, just as a hypothetical, how many points we would now have if we had changed very little about our promotion-winning side. If Luton had 19 points, why would we not have at least 16 points if we'd spent very little? Especially given our wonderful coach? We've won 3 games out of 22. Would it really have been worse if we'd brought in only a small handful of players to supplement our wonderful squad with such team spirit, passion and togetherness?
If we do go down, hopefully we bounce straight back up and nobody has to conduct any post mortems... |
Luton brought in more players (15) than we have so far, incidentally. Don't mean to be contrary, they 100% tackled the PL on the cheap; I know the above because it was a common misapprehension in the summer, during speculation around how many signings we would make. Even the cheapest of cheap clubs signed half a squad for the biggest divisional jump in world football.
Luton's strategy was the worst of the three sides, I contend, because they didn't leverage their PL resources in a meaningful way on the pitch. Excepting Barkley's short-term contract, they only signed attainable Championship players. This is the golden opportunity to gain an unfair advantage on the league below. Use it wisely. Even if you bank that money for a future rainier day, the allure of the PL stage along with it will be lost.
Luton did the best in terms of points, by a country mile when you consider money spent, but their strategy didn't come close to achieving survival. 26 was a long way off, even with two above receiving points deductions.
Burnley and much-ridiculed Sheff Utd couldn't come close to bridging the quality gap to the rest of the league; they were closer to Luton or other Championship clubs in that respect, and this acted as a leveller. Luton had much less quality than most around them and played very pragmatic football. The other two had significantly less quality and played less pragmatic football.
Welcome to Championship 24/25, however, and those two rejoin with the best squads in the league, alongside parachute Leeds. Luton return with a squad that looks every bit as good as it cost them, which isn't a compliment. I'm surprised to see them struggling so much but I'm not surprised to see them outside the promotion race.
If we finish X% below Luton's total or GD, at least we've acquired a squad that is objectively much better than most in the Championship. Our ability to retain that advantage over the summer and remain PSR/FFP compliant would be the crucial next test for whether this exercise has been successful. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 23:05 - Jan 22 with 2020 views | HighgateBlue |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 22:29 - Jan 22 by Smoresy |
Luton brought in more players (15) than we have so far, incidentally. Don't mean to be contrary, they 100% tackled the PL on the cheap; I know the above because it was a common misapprehension in the summer, during speculation around how many signings we would make. Even the cheapest of cheap clubs signed half a squad for the biggest divisional jump in world football.
Luton's strategy was the worst of the three sides, I contend, because they didn't leverage their PL resources in a meaningful way on the pitch. Excepting Barkley's short-term contract, they only signed attainable Championship players. This is the golden opportunity to gain an unfair advantage on the league below. Use it wisely. Even if you bank that money for a future rainier day, the allure of the PL stage along with it will be lost.
Luton did the best in terms of points, by a country mile when you consider money spent, but their strategy didn't come close to achieving survival. 26 was a long way off, even with two above receiving points deductions.
Burnley and much-ridiculed Sheff Utd couldn't come close to bridging the quality gap to the rest of the league; they were closer to Luton or other Championship clubs in that respect, and this acted as a leveller. Luton had much less quality than most around them and played very pragmatic football. The other two had significantly less quality and played less pragmatic football.
Welcome to Championship 24/25, however, and those two rejoin with the best squads in the league, alongside parachute Leeds. Luton return with a squad that looks every bit as good as it cost them, which isn't a compliment. I'm surprised to see them struggling so much but I'm not surprised to see them outside the promotion race.
If we finish X% below Luton's total or GD, at least we've acquired a squad that is objectively much better than most in the Championship. Our ability to retain that advantage over the summer and remain PSR/FFP compliant would be the crucial next test for whether this exercise has been successful. |
We have brought in a fair few bods, and that number is still increasing, but I'm happy to stand corrected on the numbers front if Luton did bring in more.
And I do agree with a lot of what you say.
But I am still wondering why we've done worse than Luton having started off with a better squad, spent more, and we have a better manager. Have we just wasted an awful lot of money? Or did Luton get lucky with their points tally? I can't really work it out. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 00:47 - Jan 23 with 1859 views | Smoresy |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 23:05 - Jan 22 by HighgateBlue |
We have brought in a fair few bods, and that number is still increasing, but I'm happy to stand corrected on the numbers front if Luton did bring in more.
And I do agree with a lot of what you say.
But I am still wondering why we've done worse than Luton having started off with a better squad, spent more, and we have a better manager. Have we just wasted an awful lot of money? Or did Luton get lucky with their points tally? I can't really work it out. |
I'd be lying if I said I knew, but my theory would touch on Luton's style of play. I didn't watch them regularly but they gained a reputation for very direct, lump it, low block football. They knew their limitations and were steadfast in playing to their strengths. It didn't come close to gaining them enough points, but maybe it enabled them to land a surprise or two more than we've managed so far.
Burnley were uncompromising in trying to play 'better' football. Stylistically that was a nightmare for them, because they were consistently up against similar, better teams. Sometimes in games I find it challenging to understand precisely what our intended threat is, but it's difficult when the opposition is consistently fielding better players than we have available. When you have one of the lowest quality squads in the division, there are many ways to set yourself up and ultimately come up short.* Conversely, better quality squads enjoy multiple ways to win and a healthy margin to play with.
Lastly, I would touch on how few points Luton had, we have, and Luton finished on. When totals are so low, a little luck here or there can easily distort the percentages in a straight comparison. If Southampton fluke a win in their next game, they'll go to sleep 50% better than when they woke up! It wouldn't surprise me if a L1 side could have scraped together as many points as Southampton have now, magic of the cup and all that, but it wouldn't convince us to think the L1 team were better than Southampton.
*We're still right in this fight, I don't mean to give the impression that I've given up. We've seen how hard it is when you're constantly facing these teams though, and it's hard to criticise any staff member for shortcomings that are baked into the experiences of newly promoted PL teams due to PSR. Forest's strategy of excusing themselves from these rules was likely the best in hindsight. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 05:40 - Jan 23 with 1667 views | IPS_wich |
I think the thing that sets us apart from any of the other five teams (the three relegated plus Saints and Leicester) is our investment strategy and the fact we have got a bit lucky with Delap (no one, absolutely no one foresaw what he was going to do otherwise there's no way we get him for $15m+ add ons.
Hypothetically, we go down then I can see us selling Delap, Davis, O'Shea and Hutchinson. I would have said Greaves after the first 10 games, but I think he's gone into his shell since injury and won't have proven himself as a Premier League defender by the end of this season. There's a chance we also are forced to selling Philogene because his agent appears to be a douche and will want another commission - but for now I'll put him the likely to stay bucket.
That would potentially give us a starting 11 next season of:
Walton/Muric
Tuenzebe Wolfie Greaves/Burgess Townsend
Morsy Taylor
Ogbene Szmodics Clarke/Pilogene
Hirst
Plus Burns, Chaplin, Slicker, Johnson
Bar a couple of downgrades (Townsend instead of Davis and 34 year old Morsy vs 32 year old Morsy) - that is a much much better team than what we were promoted with.
And that's before you consider what we do with the $90m+ for selling Delap, Davis, O'Shea and Omari (another central midfielder assuming Luongo moves on).
Yes, if McKenna goes then it's a huge impact, but with a squad like the one above and some money to throw around I think we can reasonably expect we will get a decent manager. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 06:11 - Jan 23 with 1623 views | Blue_Heath |
It's likely if we go down there will be huge changes starting with the manager. If I were gamechanger I'd be eyeing up a the next KmK right now (I am sure they are). Equally I think many players would leave too and not just the saleables like Delap. I would think those that didn't get much game time this year would be off and those out of contract unlikely to renew.
Going down creates huge uncertainty and would require a fairly big re-build. Bouncing back not as easy as many think. As we know that league is very competitive. | | | |
| Bounce back after relegation... on 06:24 - Jan 23 with 1590 views | PioneerBlue |
I liked a number of responses here but at this stage for me there are to many unknowns and to many variables at play to provide more than a guess let alone sensible comments and any realistic view of how things will look come May, June, July, Aug then the following May! | |
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