| If you had the choice...? 02:03 - Apr 9 with 1579 views | IPS_wich |
Lots of posts throughout the season about not enjoying the Premier League, looking forward to going back to the Championship - and echoes what fans of clubs like Norwich, Saints, Leeds, Sheff Utd etc say about their experience.
Now that we have experienced what a lot of these have been telling us - if you had a choice for the next six seasons what would you want:
- 3 lots of yo-yo (promoted and then relegated)
- 6 seasons of top half Championship finishes (maybe even a couple of failed play-offs)
Obviously all of us would prefer to bounce back and then with three seasons of EPL/Parachute/EPL money to establish ourselves as the next Brighton/Brentford - but if that was off the table and the choice was the two outlined above - what would you choose.
I know it's easy to salve the wound of a now inevitable relegation with the whole 'Championship is the most fun league in the world' (which appears to be a common refrain on the forum) - but on balance I'm happy to choose the yo yo option.
At the end of the day, this season has been really frustrating and dispiriting, but still nowhere near enough of a downer to counter the exaltation of last season. Maybe it won't feel quite as special the next time we get promoted - but despite how I feel about the last nine months I still wouldn't swap it for anything.
The only caveats to that are: (i) I might feel different if 1-2 of those future relegations were similar to Saints this year; (ii) I would definitely feel different if we were promoted playing the type of football Burnley are playing this year. [Post edited 9 Apr 2:04]
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| If you had the choice...? on 07:33 - Apr 9 with 1342 views | bsw72 |
I want us to be the best we can, see an ongoing improvement and ideally see a more even playing field for promoted clubs. What I dislike and spoils the PL for me is the ongoing ruin of the game by authorities with things like VAR, not clamping down on abuse of refs, blatant cheating by players and the manipulation of the so called financial fair play controls. |  | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 07:35 - Apr 9 with 1334 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
As much as I dislike the PL, being a yo-yo team, or finishing mid table in the Championship every year doesn’t feel sustainable. Also with our history and support we shouldn’t be aspiring to be Norwich… | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 07:48 - Apr 9 with 1292 views | Metal_Hacker |
Neither of those scenarios
If we’re going to do this lets just do it
I could handle a season perhaps two of Yo-yo-ing but thereafter it really wouldn’t be sustainable for certain
We need to move heaven and high water to establish ourselves in that poxy league
I hate the league itself but that’s perhaps due to the experience this season has offered
I truly hope the management and board have learnt from this solitary season in the “Top Flight” |  |
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| If you had the choice...? on 07:50 - Apr 9 with 1284 views | BloomBlue |
If that's the only options I'll go with yo-yo.
Personally, I want to be in the PL. It's the top league in the UK and I want us to be in the top league. I hate being in the championship. |  | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 07:59 - Apr 9 with 1238 views | BlueySwede |
Strange options, if you cut out the money from going up/parachute money...well, then we are damned if we do and damned if we don´t...The owners investment will only go so far.
But if the choice was only between those two options, it would be a yoyo-club for me.
However I agree with the poster above, the long term ambition should be to be an established Premier League club.
I feel our journey to the PL was maybe a little too fast, but if we play our cards right and keep the right players for next season we could do it again and come back better and stronger next time (first of all we need improvement in our transfer policy).
Weird as it sounds I have enjoyed the Premier League experience, at least up until Southampton at home. Obviously losing many games is never nice, but as a whole I think our club is in a better shape for this season in the PL. | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 08:21 - Apr 9 with 1152 views | Steve_M |
Without promotion , or the reasonable prospect of promotion, then the Championship becomes a slow, attritional league. And once the parachute payment disappear then good players just get picked off and teams stagnate.
We did this both from 2005 and again after McCarthy's initial improvement and the 14-15 play-off season was stymied by ME's refusal to invest.
Basically, it gets sh1t quite quickly and would do again. There are many, many flaws to the PL but just bobbing around in the Championship isn't a good solution to them. [Post edited 9 Apr 10:25]
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| If you had the choice...? on 08:26 - Apr 9 with 1122 views | IPS_wich |
| If you had the choice...? on 07:59 - Apr 9 by BlueySwede |
Strange options, if you cut out the money from going up/parachute money...well, then we are damned if we do and damned if we don´t...The owners investment will only go so far.
But if the choice was only between those two options, it would be a yoyo-club for me.
However I agree with the poster above, the long term ambition should be to be an established Premier League club.
I feel our journey to the PL was maybe a little too fast, but if we play our cards right and keep the right players for next season we could do it again and come back better and stronger next time (first of all we need improvement in our transfer policy).
Weird as it sounds I have enjoyed the Premier League experience, at least up until Southampton at home. Obviously losing many games is never nice, but as a whole I think our club is in a better shape for this season in the PL. |
It goes without saying I want us to establish ourselves as a sustainable premier league club; but the reason for putting forward just those options is I was fed up with the revisionist 'Premier League is c**p' comments all the time on here.
I get it's some form of copium in light of the likely relegation, but as you and others have proven in your response - most/all would still rather be a yo yo club than than just eek out an existence in the Championship. | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 08:42 - Apr 9 with 1056 views | WubbleU |
| If you had the choice...? on 08:26 - Apr 9 by IPS_wich |
It goes without saying I want us to establish ourselves as a sustainable premier league club; but the reason for putting forward just those options is I was fed up with the revisionist 'Premier League is c**p' comments all the time on here.
I get it's some form of copium in light of the likely relegation, but as you and others have proven in your response - most/all would still rather be a yo yo club than than just eek out an existence in the Championship. |
There is loads I hate about the Premier League, mainly the fact us fans who turn up every week are so far down the priorities. However I totally agree this Championship is the most fun league is odd, every week on here we have people commenting on Championship football and saying the football is bang average.
Was last season better than this season, yes of course; coming 2nd in League 1 was better than this season! But would I rather have our 24/25 season or Norwich's in mid-table Championship, easy ours and not just because they're them.
There is only one place to be despite its big faults. | | | |
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| If you had the choice...? on 08:50 - Apr 9 with 1026 views | HighgateBlue |
| If you had the choice...? on 07:59 - Apr 9 by BlueySwede |
Strange options, if you cut out the money from going up/parachute money...well, then we are damned if we do and damned if we don´t...The owners investment will only go so far.
But if the choice was only between those two options, it would be a yoyo-club for me.
However I agree with the poster above, the long term ambition should be to be an established Premier League club.
I feel our journey to the PL was maybe a little too fast, but if we play our cards right and keep the right players for next season we could do it again and come back better and stronger next time (first of all we need improvement in our transfer policy).
Weird as it sounds I have enjoyed the Premier League experience, at least up until Southampton at home. Obviously losing many games is never nice, but as a whole I think our club is in a better shape for this season in the PL. |
I support Ipswich Town, not the Championship.
Imagine going into six successive seasons NOT wanting to win the league you're in, NOT wanting to come second, and NOT wanting to finish in the top six and win at Wembley.
If anyone is in that camp, then I don't understand the world anymore.
And by the way, six top half Championship campaigns is highly likely to end one way. The longer you spend in a division, the more likely you are to fall out of it rather than climbing out of it. I think our relatively recent past should tell you that. There was a time not so long ago when Ipswich and Oldham had spent the longest in their current divisions out of any football league club. We went down to League One for a few years, and Oldham aren't even a league club anymore.
I'd rather go up the ladders and down the snakes than roll a zero for eternity. |  | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 09:45 - Apr 9 with 946 views | bsw72 |
| If you had the choice...? on 08:21 - Apr 9 by Steve_M |
Without promotion , or the reasonable prospect of promotion, then the Championship becomes a slow, attritional league. And once the parachute payment disappear then good players just get picked off and teams stagnate.
We did this both from 2005 and again after McCarthy's initial improvement and the 14-15 play-off season was stymied by ME's refusal to invest.
Basically, it gets sh1t quite quickly and would do again. There are many, many flaws to the PL but just bobbing around in the Championship isn't a good solution to them. [Post edited 9 Apr 10:25]
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The Premier League has really changed the game in England, but not always for the better. It feels more and more that the game has been hijacked by money, with clubs chasing the big bucks instead of focusing on what really matters—community and grassroots football. With all that TV cash flowing in, the top teams are raking it in , while smaller clubs struggle to keep up. It’s like a financial arms race, and it’s left a lot of fans feeling like their clubs are more about the glitz and glamour than the local pride and passion that used to define them.
And let’s be honest, the connection between clubs and their local supporters has taken a hit, we are very lucky at Ipswich that Ashton and the board are so engaged locally. Look at a lot of the more "established PL clubs; ticket prices are through the roof, and matchdays feel more like a corporate event than a community gathering. Clubs are so busy trying to attract fans from all over the world that they’ve forgotten about the folks who’ve been there through thick and thin. Grassroots football, which used to be the heart and soul of the sport, is getting neglected as clubs pour their resources into chasing the next big signing. It’s a shame because football should be about the love of the game and the community, not just the money. [Post edited 9 Apr 9:47]
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| If you had the choice...? on 11:08 - Apr 9 with 828 views | bsw72 |
| If you had the choice...? on 08:50 - Apr 9 by HighgateBlue |
I support Ipswich Town, not the Championship.
Imagine going into six successive seasons NOT wanting to win the league you're in, NOT wanting to come second, and NOT wanting to finish in the top six and win at Wembley.
If anyone is in that camp, then I don't understand the world anymore.
And by the way, six top half Championship campaigns is highly likely to end one way. The longer you spend in a division, the more likely you are to fall out of it rather than climbing out of it. I think our relatively recent past should tell you that. There was a time not so long ago when Ipswich and Oldham had spent the longest in their current divisions out of any football league club. We went down to League One for a few years, and Oldham aren't even a league club anymore.
I'd rather go up the ladders and down the snakes than roll a zero for eternity. |
Ha, I can't help myself when it comes to statistics :-), therefore based on analysis of the PL and FL it indicates that the longer you spend in a division, there is is a moderate positive correlation towards promotion, and that's even allowing for the fact that you cannot achieve promotion from the PL.
Positive Correlation with Promotion
Preliminary analysis indicates a moderate positive correlation between longer tenures in lower divisions and the probability of promotion. Teams that spend an extended number of seasons in the Championship, for instance, develop a more profound understanding of the competitive landscape and refine their strategies to secure consistent performance, thereby enhancing their promotion prospects. Specifically, teams with over five years in the Championship exhibit a 30% higher chance of securing promotion compared to those with shorter tenures (The data behind promotion and relegation in the EFL).
Negative Correlation with Relegation
Conversely, the analysis reveals a significant negative correlation between extended tenure in a higher division and the probability of relegation. Teams consistently performing well in the Premier League are less susceptible to relegation, attributable to their stable financial structures, experienced management, and robust player rosters.
Partial Correlation Insights
After controlling for financial health and team performance metrics, the partial correlation between division tenure and promotion remains positive and significant (r = 0.45, p < 0.01), indicating that longer tenures independently contribute to higher promotion probabilities. However, the correlation with relegation adjusts to remain negative and significant (r = -0.38, p < 0.05), reinforcing the protective effect of prolonged presence in the top tier against relegation.
I can share the whole piece of analysis if you're interested, it's a 34 page word document based on analysis of approx 60 different sources and data sets . . . | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 11:37 - Apr 9 with 757 views | HighgateBlue |
| If you had the choice...? on 11:08 - Apr 9 by bsw72 |
Ha, I can't help myself when it comes to statistics :-), therefore based on analysis of the PL and FL it indicates that the longer you spend in a division, there is is a moderate positive correlation towards promotion, and that's even allowing for the fact that you cannot achieve promotion from the PL.
Positive Correlation with Promotion
Preliminary analysis indicates a moderate positive correlation between longer tenures in lower divisions and the probability of promotion. Teams that spend an extended number of seasons in the Championship, for instance, develop a more profound understanding of the competitive landscape and refine their strategies to secure consistent performance, thereby enhancing their promotion prospects. Specifically, teams with over five years in the Championship exhibit a 30% higher chance of securing promotion compared to those with shorter tenures (The data behind promotion and relegation in the EFL).
Negative Correlation with Relegation
Conversely, the analysis reveals a significant negative correlation between extended tenure in a higher division and the probability of relegation. Teams consistently performing well in the Premier League are less susceptible to relegation, attributable to their stable financial structures, experienced management, and robust player rosters.
Partial Correlation Insights
After controlling for financial health and team performance metrics, the partial correlation between division tenure and promotion remains positive and significant (r = 0.45, p < 0.01), indicating that longer tenures independently contribute to higher promotion probabilities. However, the correlation with relegation adjusts to remain negative and significant (r = -0.38, p < 0.05), reinforcing the protective effect of prolonged presence in the top tier against relegation.
I can share the whole piece of analysis if you're interested, it's a 34 page word document based on analysis of approx 60 different sources and data sets . . . |
I don't think relegation from the Premier League is relevant to this question, personally. It's a truism which is supported by the statistics that if you become 'established' in the Prem, you have a lesser chance of relegation. I think promotion and relegation from EFL divisions is more relevant.
Your "Negative Correlation with Relegation" section doesn't mention relegation from an EFL division at all, and that's what I'm talking about.
As regards promotion from EFL divisions, a criterion of greater than 5 years is all well and good, but what about longer stays? What does that do to the odds of relegation. I would suggest that it's not so simple once you get to 10 years plus. And the tone of the OP is that promotion is worth avoiding. My point is that if you don't go forwards, it's much easier to fall over entirely. Like on a bike.
But assuming you're right (that the stats support your opening sentence), that would create an ever greater negative for those who choose the '6 years in the Champ' option, because in each of those years, apparently, the prospect of evil promotion would be getting even greater. | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 12:16 - Apr 9 with 693 views | Bluedandy |
I'm afraid there's no contest... three seasons of each because we'd be so much better off financially.
After six seasons of yo-yoing we might finally crack the code, win promotion and then stay up for a long time.
We've already done six Championship seasons from 2002 to 2008 which included two play off failures.
Guess what that yielded? Marcus Evans.
The current financial model of English football is broken and to repair there should be two smaller PL divisions with money spread more evenly.
Until that happens I'd much rather be with the haves than the have nots, even if it means getting pumped from time to time. | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 12:23 - Apr 9 with 666 views | bsw72 |
| If you had the choice...? on 11:37 - Apr 9 by HighgateBlue |
I don't think relegation from the Premier League is relevant to this question, personally. It's a truism which is supported by the statistics that if you become 'established' in the Prem, you have a lesser chance of relegation. I think promotion and relegation from EFL divisions is more relevant.
Your "Negative Correlation with Relegation" section doesn't mention relegation from an EFL division at all, and that's what I'm talking about.
As regards promotion from EFL divisions, a criterion of greater than 5 years is all well and good, but what about longer stays? What does that do to the odds of relegation. I would suggest that it's not so simple once you get to 10 years plus. And the tone of the OP is that promotion is worth avoiding. My point is that if you don't go forwards, it's much easier to fall over entirely. Like on a bike.
But assuming you're right (that the stats support your opening sentence), that would create an ever greater negative for those who choose the '6 years in the Champ' option, because in each of those years, apparently, the prospect of evil promotion would be getting even greater. |
The analysis is far more complex that just looking at the longevity of teams in isolation:
Team Performance Metrics: Includes win-loss records, goal differentials, points accumulated per season, and advanced metrics like xG and PPDA. These indicators provide a quantitative basis for assessing team strength and competitive viability.
Promotion and Relegation Rates: Tracks the historical frequency of team movements between divisions, analyzing patterns over extended periods to identify trends and anomalies. This data is critical for understanding the stability or volatility of teams within specific tiers.
Duration in Divisions: Measures the length of time teams remain within a particular division before being promoted or relegated. This metric is pivotal for correlating tenure with future league movements, shedding light on factors that contribute to sustained competitiveness or decline.
Financial Data: Incorporates revenue figures from broadcasting rights, sponsorships, matchday earnings, and expenditures on player acquisitions. Financial health is a significant determinant of a club’s ability to compete, manage player turnover, and invest in long-term development.
Managerial and Organizational Factors: Data on managerial tenures, changes in coaching staff, and organizational stability provide qualitative insights that complement the quantitative performance metrics. | | | |
| If you had the choice...? on 12:30 - Apr 9 with 636 views | cressi |
I want us to be the Villarreal of the Premiership except wear blue.
They have 23,000 capacity are 5th this Yr won European trophies. Why not us ? | | | |
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